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Despite S&P 500’s Worst Day in 2 Years, VIX Doesn’t Signal Capitulation


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The unexpectedly robust US CPI reading this past session triggered the biggest plunge from the S&P 500 in over two years while the Dollar rallied right back towards its extreme highs. While the data was a surprise, this move speaks more to the market’s bias. Further, VIX says the point of capitulation isn’t close. 

 

 

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    • USDJPY has been regaining ground this week, but inflation differentials and a three-month trend signal the potential for another turn lower Source: Bloomberg      Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 27 January 2023  USDJPY set for third monthly decline The USDJPY pair has been on the slide since its October high, with the historical 147.63 resistance level ultimately marking the end of the dramatic 21-month rally that saw the pair gain almost 50%. Much of that came through a period that saw US inflation soar as Japanese prices remain subdued. That disparity remains, but the direction of travel has certainly shifted as US CPI declines and Japanese price growth gradually ticks up. The overnight 4.3% figure for Tokyo core CPI represents a four-decade high, with the nationwide figures likely to follow on. The chart below highlights how USDJPY has been heavily correlated with the now tightening gap between US and Japanese inflation. However, it is more evident when shifting that inflation differential forward by seven-months. That close correlation highlights the potential for further downside as long as prices continue to trend in a similar manner. Source: ProRealTime Looking at the daily chart, the recent rebound has taken price up towards the top-end of a descending channel and Fibonacci resistance. This highlights the bearish pattern that has been playing out, with lower highs and lower lows in place in recent months. Unless we see price rise through trendline and 134.77 resistance, another turn lower looks likely for this pair. Source: ProRealTime
    • @MongiIG Hi - You recently covered Long NICKEL Trading the Trend and A. Rudolf did this morning but I see it is Closing only. Please clarify, Thanks D600
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