I Studied 15 Years of Bear Market Crashes: Here's What I Learned
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10/06/21 10:53
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By tradinglounge · Posted
Pinduoduo Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Pinduoduo Inc., (PDD:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 27 March 23, PDD Stock Market Analysis: We can identify a clear three wave move to the downside into what could be wave 2. In addition to that, there seems to be a complete five wave pattern within wave {c}. PDD Elliott Wave Count: Wave (v) of {c}. PDD Technical Indicators: 200EMa as support. PDD Trading Strategy: Looking for upside confirmation. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta Pinduoduo Inc., PDD: 4-hour Chart, 27 March 23, Pinduoduo Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis PDD Stock Market Analysis: We are looking at a potential bottom in place as we have passed equality of {c} vs. {a}. PDD Elliott Wave count: Wave (v) of {c}. PDD Technical Indicators: Below all averages with RSI bullish divergence. PDD Trading Strategy: Looking for shorts as long as we stay below the 20EMA. -
Ahead of the Australian Retail Sales data release, the market is expecting a fall of -0.1% in February following a 1.9% rise in January. Source: Bloomberg Forex Retail AUD/USD United States dollar Inflation Australian dollar Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 27 March 2023 Retail sales release date Retail trade data will be released on Tuesday, 28th of March at 11:30am AEDT. March board meeting After a crazy week where the global banking crisis took centre stage, there is a renewed focus on Australian macro data ahead of next week’s RBA Board Meeting. Recent events in the banking sector, which make for a more uncertain outlook, have made the RBA’s dovish shift and discussion of a pause at its March Board meeting timelier. The minutes from the March Board meeting noted that the Board agreed it would be appropriate to pause "at some point" to assess the effects of prior rate hikes. As part of its considerations, it would closely watch incoming employment, inflation, business surveys and retail sales data. Members “agreed that upcoming releases on employment, inflation, retail trade and business surveys would provide important additional information, as would developments in the global economy.” Confusing the picture, employment data released in mid-March was stronger than expected. However, business and consumer confidence were soft and this elevates the importance of the release of retail sales for February tomorrow. What is expected? The market is looking for a fall of -0.1% in February following a 1.9% rise in January. There is a wide range of estimates from -1.2% to +0.8%, reflecting the volatility of this series. Less we forget, retail sales fell by 3.9% in December, its largest monthly fall since August 2020. However, that fall was attributed to spending being brought forward to take advantage of Black Friday and cyber-Monday sales. Source: Trading Economics While an RBA pause in April would appear more likely if retail sales and the monthly CPI indicator released on Wednesday come in at or lower than expected this week, the Australian interest rate market isn’t waiting for confirmation. It is now pricing in the very small chance of a rate cut at next week’s Board Meeting, with a full rate cut priced by October. What does it mean for the AUD/USD? The AUD/USD finished lower last week at .6645 (-0.84%) on risk aversion flows, a fall in the price of iron ore and after rejecting the resistance at .6760/85 coming from the 200-day moving average and the highs of March. While below resistance at .6760/85, the risks remain to the downside for the AUD/USD, with .6520/00 as the next downside target. Aware that should the AUD/USD see a sustained move above resistance at .6560/85, it would negate the bearish bias and allow a more constructive picture to emerge. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of March 27th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. -
ASX 200 afternoon report: 27th of March 2023 ASX 200 market update as of 27th of March, 3.30pm AEDT. Source: Bloomberg Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 27 March 2023 The ASX 200 trades 7 points higher (0.10%) at 6962 at 3.30pm. The ASX 200 has today made a positive start looking to end its seven-week losing streak. A lack of fresh bad banking news over the weekend, along with reports of a possible buyer of Silicon Valley Bank, provided the catalyst for early gains. However, without some clarity around protection for US bank deposits over $250,000 and reports that Russia will station nuclear weapons in neighbour Belarus, there was only limited appetite for anything other than a tepid rally. Geopolitics and banking crises aside, this week also sees a renewed focus on Australian macro data ahead of next week’s RBA Board Meeting. Tuesday 28th of March sees the release of retail sales data for February, followed by monthly inflation data on Wednesday. Both data points were highlighted by the RBA Board minutes as two of the four it will be watching closely s it looks to pause its rate hiking cycle as early as next week. Members “agreed that upcoming releases on employment, inflation, retail trade and business surveys would provide important additional information, as would developments in the global economy.” Banking sector It’s been a mixed day for the banking sector. NAB climbed 0.7% to $27.37 Westpac added 0.26% to $21.26 ANZ added 0.09% to $22.55 CBA fell 0.4% to $95.45 Macquarie fell 0.8% to $168.22. Energy sector Energy stocks have fallen on news that the Green party will support Labor’s energy package plan. Woodside Energy fell 3.16% t $31.51 Beach Energy fell 2.64% to $1.29 Santos fell 1.4% to $6.76 Whitehaven fell 1.54% to $6.38 New Hope fell 1.3% to $5.42 BHP fell 0.53% to $43.41. Consumer Staple sector The defensive Consumer Staple sector gained, led by Endeavour Group, which added 3.71% to $6.98. Bega Cheese added 2.42% to $3.38 Metcash added 2.25% to $3.88 Costa Group added 1.95% to $2.38. Lithium stocks The recent carnage in the Lithium sector has continued today as Lake Resources fell 11.46% to $0.43c on news that its Non-Executive Director, Stuart Crow, sold about $4 million worth of shares last week. Vulcan Energy fell 3.05% to $5.42 Pilbara Minerals fell 3.5% to $3.44 Galan Lithium fell 1.58% to $0.94c. ASX 200 technical analysis Providing the ASX 200 continues to hold above support 6910/00, the pullback from the February 7567 high is viewed as a countertrend (an "ABC" Elliott Wave correction), and a rebound is expected to follow. Aware that should the ASX 200 see a sustained break below support at 6910/00, it would negate our positive bias and warn of a retest of the bottom of its 12-month range at 6410. ASX 200 daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of March 27th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
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