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Corn looks to be topping out after months of gains


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Corn is on the cusp of a double top formation, with the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports under the Black Sea Grain agreement

bg_corn_crop_harvest_377303410.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 08 November 2022 

Corn has seen plenty of upside over the second half of the year, with price rising 26% from its July low to October high. That can be attributed to a number of factors, with Russian threats to cut off Ukrainian shipping routes building on yield questions in the wake of a hot summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Nonetheless, while we did see initial threats that the Grain agreement will be withdrawn, Russia has since approved further shipments to relieve any concerns over a supply squeeze. The BBC image below highlights just how important the Ukraine is for Maize (Corn) supply, with the country responsible for 17% of the world’s supply. Given the easing fears around a potential supply squeeze and low yields, we are seeing signs that Corn prices could be topping out here.

BBCUKRAINE81122.PNGSource: BBC

Corn technical analysis

The weekly Corn chart below highlights how price appears to be rolling over, with the stochastic falling back below the 80 threshold. Should that move follow through, it would look like the beginning of a fresh bearish phase for the commodity. It is worthwhile noting the wider bullish trend in play here. This signals the potential for any downside move to be a potential pullback before we move higher once again.

C-Weekly-2022_11_08-12h43.pngSource: ProRealTime

On the daily timeframe, we can see that price appears to be on the cusp of completing a double top formation. A break below the $6.77 per bushel mark would serve to bring a fresh lower low following the recent failure to overcome the previous high set in October. With that in mind, a move below $6.77 would bring about a topping pattern and signal a potential period of downside to come.

C-Daily-2022_11_08-12h51.pngSource: ProRealTime
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