Jump to content

NFP Posts Yet Another Beat as US Job Market Proves Resilient, USD Rises


Recommended Posts

NFP DATA ANALYSIS AND MARKET REACTION

  • November NFP data reveals 263k jobs added to the US economy
  • Average hourly wage growth comes in at twice the expected figure (0.6% vs 0.3%) MoM – worrying for signs of a wage-price spiral
  • Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.7%
  • The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library

Non Farm Payroll Definition and Data | US Jobs Report

This is a live report, market moves and analysis will follow. Please refresh the page

 

November NFP Posts Another Beat as the US Job Market Proves Resilient

  • November NFP data reveals 263k jobs added to the US economy
  • October figure of 261k revised up to 284k
  • Average hourly wage growth comes in at twice the expected figure (0.6% vs 0.3%) MoM

 

 

image1.png

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

 

The November NFP data surprised to the upside yet again and the October figure was revised higher, stressing that the US labor market continues to show signs of great resilience despite tightening financial conditions. Something that may be of concern to Fed members is the month on month and year on year rise in average hourly wage growth however, this tends to result from the fact that employees have greater bargaining power when there aren’t many people waiting to fulfil vacant posts. Companies therefore, acquiesce to higher wage demands which is why the Fed views a modest job growth slowdown in a favorable light.

IMMEDIATE REACTION FROM SELECTED MARKETS

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) 5- Min Chart

The dollar index has sold off in recent trading sessions as the market bought into the idea of a lower terminal rate and a slower pace of rate hikes to come. It is against this back drop that the better than expected NFP data has sent the dollar higher as the repricing adjustment takes place. The extent to which the stellar jobs report can lead to a prolonged rise in DXY back to the high, remains unlikely as we get closer to the end of the rate hiking cycle.

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

image2.png

 

US 10 Year Treasury Yield 5- Min Chart

Understandable, the US 10 year yield rose, as traders assess the likelihood that market positioning failed to fully take into account the possibility of a higher jobs print and the validity behind Jerome Powell's 'higher for longer' comments which appear a distant memory now.

image3.png

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Gold has been on a phenomenal run since bouncing higher from levels near the September low. The NFP print appears to have reinforces the key 1800 psychological level of resistance. The stronger dollar and rise in yields renders gold a relatively less attractive choice at these levels and perhaps offers long traders with an opportunity to partially or fully reduce exposure.

Gold Daily Chart 5- Min Chart

 

image4.png

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

 

--- Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com | 2nd Dec 2022

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • As the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 approaches, the cryptocurrency market is under intense scrutiny. The halving of miner rewards every four years not only regulates the supply of new bitcoins but also profoundly impacts market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics. This period will provide unique opportunities and challenges for the Qmiax exchange.   Halving events often increase the visibility of Bitcoin and typically lead to price and adoption rate increases, sparking widespread discussions about blockchain technology, Bitcoin network dynamics, and cryptocurrencies as a unique asset class. As an industry builder, Qmiax has prepared thoroughly for the upcoming halving event. The platform has not only strengthened its technical support to handle potential high transaction volumes but also provided educational resources and market analysis to help users better understand the halving event and its potential impact on the market.   History shows that although Bitcoin has seen price increases and expanded adoption rates in the months following halving, market reactions to each halving event have been different. The 2024 Bitcoin halving event presents unprecedented characteristics in several key aspects, requiring investors and market participants to remain vigilant and prepared for possible market fluctuations. Qmiax has strengthened its market analysis capabilities, providing real-time data and in-depth technical analysis to assist users in making well-informed decisions.   During this period, Qmiax has introduced a variety of new tools and services to support the trading needs of users in a high-volatility environment. These tools include enhanced risk management settings, more flexible trading options, and enhanced security measures to ensure the safety of the assets and transaction data of users.   In terms of education and support, Qmiax has launched a series of educational workshops and online courses on Bitcoin halving and its impact on the crypto market. These resources aim to enhance the market knowledge of users, enabling them to make wiser investment decisions during this critical period. Through these efforts, the platform has not only strengthened customer trust and satisfaction but also reinforced its position as a leader in market education.   The platform has enhanced its collaboration with other major cryptocurrency markets globally, ensuring consistent services and support worldwide. With this global perspective, Qmiax continues to demonstrate its influence and innovation in the cryptocurrency trading field.   With the Bitcoin halving event approaching, Qmiax is fully prepared to meet this market milestone. Through technological innovation, customer education, and global market cooperation, the platform not only supports the current market but also lays the foundation for future market changes. In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies, Qmiax is committed to providing leading services and solutions, leading the industry forward.
    • Gold Elliott Wave Analysis  Function - Trend Mode - Impulse Structure - Impulse wave Position -Wave 4 Direction - Wave 5 Details -  Wave 4 has reached the extreme area and bounced off the 2300 MG1. We will expect wave 5 to progress higher. However, it’s still in the early stages. Invalidation below 2245.17. Gold has undergone a retracement since its peak on April 12th, following a remarkable surge to a fresh all-time high. Despite this pullback, the underlying bullish momentum remains robust and is anticipated to reassert itself once the corrective phase concludes. In today's analysis, we delve into the potential areas where Gold may discover the necessary support to propel its next upward movements.   Zooming into the daily chart, our Elliott Wave analysis commences with identifying an impulse wave sequence originating from the low at 1614, marking the termination of wave (IV) at the supercycle degree back in September 2022. Presently, the supercycle wave V is unfolding, currently navigating through the third leg of the cycle degree, denoted as wave III. Within this wave III, classified as an impulse wave, we find ourselves within the third sub-wave, indicated as blue wave '3' of primary degree, further delineated into wave (3) of intermediate degree. Within this intricate structure, the price action appears to be nearing the culmination of minor degree wave 4. Consequently, the impulse sequence characterizing the intermediate wave (3) has yet to finalize, let alone the overarching supercycle wave (V). Thus, Gold's bullish trajectory remains firmly intact, advocating for a strategic approach of buying into the dips within this robust trend. Presently, the price appears to be undergoing a dip corresponding to wave 4 of (3), with an anticipated subsequent uptrend in wave 5.    Transitioning to the H4 chart, our focus narrows on the completion of wave 4, manifesting as a zigzag pattern since the peak on April 12th. Conventionally, the termination of the third leg of a zigzag typically occurs at extensions ranging from 100% to 138.2% of the initial leg's length from the subsequent corrective move. However, an extension beyond 138.2%, particularly to 161.8%, tends to invalidate the zigzag pattern. In this context, we cautiously assert that the zigzag for wave 4 might have concluded, with a critical level of invalidation identified at 2245. Nonetheless, further confirmation is sought through the emergence of more bullish candle formations. Meanwhile, the target projection for wave 5 remains at 2500, aligning with the continuation of Gold's upward trajectory within the Elliott Wave framework. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : TradingLounge.com get trial here!        
    • Surprising US PMI drops contrast with Europe’s gains in services, pushing EUR/USD higher as markets recalibrate economic outlooks and monetary policy expectations.   Source: Getty   Forex Euro Pound sterling European Union Inflation EUR/USD Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg   Publication date: Wednesday 24 April 2024 07:28 Flash PMI data provides unflattering US outlook, Europe improves German and EU manufacturing remains depressed but encouraging rises in flash services PMI results suggest improvement in Europe. UK manufacturing slumped well into contraction, but also benefitted from another rise on the services front. It was the US that provided the most surprising numbers, witnessing a decline in services PMI and a drop into contractionary territory for manufacturing – weighing on the dollar. EUR/USD rises after us PMI shock EUR/USD responded to lackluster flash PMI data in the US by clawing back recent losses. The euro attempts to surpass the 1.0700 level after recovering from oversold territory around the swing low of 1.0600. The pair has maintained the longer-term downtrend reflective of the diverging monetary policy stances adopted by the ECB and the Fed. A strong labour market, robust growth and resurgent inflation has forced the Fed to delay its plans to cut interest rates which has strengthened the dollar against G7 currencies. The surprising US PMI data suggests the economy may not be as strong as initially anticipated and some frailties may be creeping in. However, it will take a lot more than one flash data point to reverse the narrative. If bulls take control from here, 1.07645 becomes the next upside level of interest followed by 1.0800 where the 200 SMA resides. On the downside, 1.06437 and 1.0600 remain support levels of interest if the longer-term trend is to continue. EUR/USD daily chart     Source: TradingView EUR/GBP surrenders recent gains EUR/GBP rose uncharacteristically on Friday when risks of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran subsided. In addition, the Bank of England’s(BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden stated that he sees inflation falling sharply towards target in the coming months, sending a dovish signal to the market. Today the BoE’s chief Economist Huw Pill tried to walk back such sentiment, stressing that the bank needs to maintain restrictiveness in its policy stance. He did however, echo Ramsden’s remarks by saying the committee is seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of the inflation dynamic. EUR/GBP appears to have found resistance around 0.8625 and has traded lower after the PMI data, even heading lower than the 200 SMA. A return to former channel resistance is potentially on the cards at 0.8578. Prices settled into the trading range as central bankers mulled incoming data and the prospect of a first rate cut appeared a fair distance away. Longer-term, the ECB is on track to cut rates in June, meaning sterling will extend its interest rate superiority and is likely to see the pair test familiar levels of support. EUR/GBP daily chart   Source: TradingView       This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
×
×
  • Create New...
us