Jump to content

AU labour force preview and what comes next for the AUD/USD

Recommended Posts

On Thursday, Australian labour force data for December is due to be released at 11.30 am AEDT.


bg_aud_229435122.jpgSource: Bloomberg



 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 17 January 2023 

In November, total employment increased by 64k, keeping the unemployment rate at a 50-year of 3.4%. This month, employment growth is expected to slow to 25k, in line with a softening in recent surveys, and after last week’s ABS, job vacancies fell by 4.9% over the three months to November. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%.

Despite the decrease, the level of job vacancies in November 2022 remained at elevated levels. Job vacancies were 94.9% higher than they were in February 2020, before the start of the pandemic.

The strong labour market today played a part in a 5% rise today in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment index in January – its largest monthly gain since April 2021. January was the first month “since April last year that did not see an increase in the RBA cash rate.”

Within the details, unemployment expectations improved.

A strong labour market is partly behind today’s rise in consumer confidence, robust household spending as well as high wages and inflation, all of which have contributed to the reasoning behind the RBA’s current rate hiking cycle.

Looking ahead, the Australian interest rate market is about 50% priced for a 25bp rate hike at the RBA’s board meeting in February, which would take the cash rate from 3.10% to 3.35%. Further along the rates curve, the market then expects another 25bp rate hike in the first half of 2023, which would take the cash rate to 3.60%, projected to be at or near the RBA’s peak.

Turning to the AUD/USD, the local unit rejected its first forage above .7000c in four months yesterday on news that China’s National Development and Reform Commission will crack down on spreading false information and price gouging in the iron ore market.

In the short term, the AUD/USD does appear a little stretched and due some consolidation/corrective price action to work off overbought readings into Thursday’s employment report.

However, providing the band of support between .6830 (the 200-day moving average) and .6800c (uptrend support from the November .6272 low) holds the uptrend remains intact, and the AUD/USD can continue to march higher towards the August .7137 high.

AUD/USD daily chart


AUDUSDdc170123.pngSource: TradingView

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • DCA is what I do as rule of thumb slowly boost my pf. But as a gamer, I won't be hesitating to adopt same for its accumulation to HODL.
    • NVDA Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart,21 February 24 NVIDIA Corp., (NVDA) Daily Chart NVDA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend   MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Minor wave 5 of (1).   DIRECTION: Pullback in wave {iv} of 5. DETAILS: As explained on the chart we could be having a larger top soon to be in place in wave (5) instead of 5 and that could mean a larger pullback would be due. In addition we could see upside target at TL8 at 800$. Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta           NVDA Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, 21 February 24 NVIDIA Corp., (NVDA) 4Hr Chart NVDA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Counter Trend   MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Flat POSITION: Wave (a) of {iv}   DIRECTION: Completion of a three wave move in wave {iv}.   DETAILS: Looking for a three wave move into wave {iv} we as of now we would have a much smaller wave {iv} compared to its wave {ii}. We could see Medium Level 650$ act as support.     Welcome to our NVDA Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge, your go-to source for comprehensive insights into NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) using Elliott Wave Technical Analysis. As of the Daily Chart on 21st February 2024, we delve into significant trends guiding the market. * NVDA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* In terms of wave dynamics, we identify a dominant impulse function with a motive structure. The current position is in Minor wave 5 of (1), indicating a pullback in wave {iv} of 5. There's a possibility of a larger top being imminent in wave (5), potentially leading to a larger pullback. Additionally, an upside target at TL8 around $800 is plausible. *NVDA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4Hr Chart* Here, the wave function shifts to a counter trend mode with a corrective structure, specifically a flat pattern. The present position is in Wave (a) of {iv}, signifying the completion of a three-wave move in wave {iv}. We anticipate a three-wave move into wave {iv}, with Medium Level support around $650.
    • US dollar dynamics - anticipating FX market volatility ahead of FOMC minutes release and technical forecasts for major currency pairs.   Source: Bloomberg   Forex Shares United States dollar USD/JPY EUR/USD USD/CAD Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York   Publication date: Wednesday 21 February 2024 06:16 The US dollar fell modestly on Tuesday on the back of subdued US yields in a session lacking significant drivers. Volatility in the FX space, however, may accelerate later in the week, courtesy of a high-impact event on the US calendar on Wednesday: the release of the FOMC minutes. The minutes will surely provide a greater degree of clarity regarding the central bank’s assessment of the inflation outlook, and the possible timing of the first rate cut, so traders should parse and analyse the document closely. Based on recent comments from several Fed officials, the readout of the last meeting may signal limited interest for immediate rate cuts, in response to stagnating progress on disinflation. This scenario should boost US Treasury yields, bolstering the US dollar in the process. In the unlikely event that the minutes demonstrate a greater inclination among policymakers to initiate the easing cycle sooner rather than later, the opposite response could materialise, i.e., a pullback in yields and the greenback. Regardless of the outcome, we could see larger FX market swings in the coming days. Fundamentals aside, the remainder of this article will center on the technical outlook for major US dollar pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Here we'll assess the crucial price thresholds that currency traders should be aware of in the upcoming sessions. EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD continued its recovery on Tuesday after rebounding from support near 1.0700 last week. If gains persist in the upcoming days, resistance is anticipated around the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0820. Beyond this threshold, all eyes will be on 1.0890, followed by 1.0950. In the event of a market reversal, initial support can be identified near 1.0725 and 1.0700 subsequently. Bulls will need to vigorously protect this technical floor; failure to do so could result in a pullback towards 1.0650. On further weakness, attention will be squarely on 1.0520. EUR/USD daily chart   Source: TradingView USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY ticked down and fell below the 150.00 handle on Tuesday. Should weakness persist throughout the week, support emerges at 148.90, followed by 147.40. Further losses from this point onward may bring the 50-day simple moving average near 146.00 into focus. On the other hand, if bulls return and push prices back above the 150.00 handle, we could soon witness a retest of the 150.85 region. Although overcoming this ceiling might present a challenge for the bulls, a decisive breakout could usher in a rally toward last year’s high in the vicinity of 152.00. USD/JPY daily chart   Source: TradingView USD/CAD technical analysis USD/CAD consolidated to the upside on Tuesday, further moving away from its 200-day simple moving average and trendline support near 1.3480. If gains gather momentum over the next few days, overhead resistance looms at 1.3545, followed by 1.3585. Above these levels, the spotlight will be on 1.3620. Conversely, if prices pivot to the downside and head lower, the first floor to monitor is located at 1.3480. This area might offer stability for the pair during a retracement, but in the event of a breakdown, a rapid decline towards the 50-day simple moving average at 1.3415 could be imminent. USD/CAD daily chart   Source: TradingView       This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  • Create New...