Jump to content

Sentiments on hold ahead of key risk events this week: Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225, Brent crude


Recommended Posts

Major US indices ended last week with further upside, but a sharp paring of gains at the last hour may suggest some caution kicking in ahead of several key risk events.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 

 Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 30 January 2023 

Market Recap

Major US indices ended last week with further upside, (DJIA +0.08%; S&P 500 +0.25%; Nasdaq +0.95%), but a sharp paring of gains at the last hour may suggest some caution kicking in ahead of several key risk events (central bank meetings, PMI data, US job report) this week. After ticking 3% lower since the start of the year, the US dollar index has also stabilised above a near-term support at its 101.00 level, with its measured moves within a tight range pointing to some wait-and-see ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Economic data last week showed US core PCE price index coming in line with expectations at 4.4% year-on-year, further moderating from previous 4.7%. The data continues to anchor market expectations of terminal rate outlook at the 4.75%-5% range, which is less hawkish than what Fed policymakers have been guiding for. Still above-target inflation and easing financial conditions over the past months may refrain the Fed from feeding markets with any pivot hopes prematurely but equity bulls may attempt to ride on any signs of a more data-dependent stance to continue recent bullish momentum.

The past week has also seen mega cap tech counters taking leadership for markets’ bullish moves, and the onus will fall on several big tech names this week (Advanced Micro Devices, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Apple and Amazon) to support further upside. Thus far, the Nasdaq 100 index has broken above a key downward trendline resistance, suggesting bulls in control. A near-term resistance at the 12,200 level lies ahead and any break above this level could pave the way towards the 13,000 level, where a Fibonacci confluence zone resides.

Chart 1_USTechSource: IG Charts

Asia Open

Asian stocks look set for a lower open, with Nikkei -0.04%, ASX -0.16% and KOSPI -0.83% at the time of writing, as the last-hour de-risking in US indices on Friday and muted moves in US equity futures this morning suggests some caution ahead of several key risk events this week. The mainland China markets will reopen today after its Lunar New Year holidays, with positive catch-up performance likely on the table and an anticipated return to bull market for the CSI 300 index. Last week, the Hang Seng Index has pushed to its 10-month high, posting its six consecutive weeks of gains. The economic calendar in the region is largely quiet today, but focus will be on China’s NBS PMI readings tomorrow. Expectations for its manufacturing PMI are for a smaller contraction to 49.7 from previous 47.0, but with market technicals in overbought territory for now, any lower-than-expected read may be tapped on for some profit-taking.

For the Nikkei 225 index, recent upside has brought it to retest a key resistance at the 27,400 level currently, which also marks the completion of a previous double-bottom pattern. Any move higher could pave the way towards the 28,400 level next, where a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level stands. The index is currently trading above both its 100-day and 200-day moving average (MA).

Chart 2_Japan225Source: IG Charts

On the watchlist: Brent crude prices hovering at 100-day MA ahead of OPEC+ meeting

Brent crude prices have been able to form a higher low and higher high since December last year, taking its cue from the weaker US dollar, China’s reopening narrative and an improved risk environment to gain some traction. That said, recent upside has stalled just below its 100-day MA, with its near-term ranging pattern pointing to ongoing wait-and-see ahead of several key risk events this week. Expectations for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting are for a no-change to current policy, in light of higher oil prices in recent months and an improving outlook on China’s demand. That may leave sentiments to be more sensitive to a series of central bank meetings and economic data to drive moves. Any break above its 100-day MA could further provide conviction of bulls in control and places the next key test of resistance at the US$92.87 level on watch. This level is where a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level resides.

Chart 3_oilSource: IG Charts

Friday: DJIA +0.08%; S&P 500 +0.25%; Nasdaq +0.95%, DAX +0.11%, FTSE +0.05%

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Ethereum defied months of bearish sentiment with an 18% price surge, climbing above $3,700. This sudden bullishness seems fueled by speculation of a major shift in US crypto policy – the long-awaited approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). A Turn of Tide? The catalyst for this rally appears to be a report by Bloomberg ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart. They revealed that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is urging applicants to expedite their filings, prompting them to dramatically revise their ETH price prediction upwards. Balchunas increased his approval odds from a mere 25% to a much more optimistic 75%. This newfound optimism is further bolstered by a surge in confidence on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform. There, the odds of a green light for spot Ether ETFs skyrocketed from 11% to 54%. Political Pressure and Legislative Development Balchunas suggests that political pressure might be influencing the SEC's stance. The regulator's previous silence and lack of engagement with ETF applicants paint a different picture. However, recent reports indicate the SEC is requesting updates from exchanges like NYSE and Nasdaq, although official confirmation remains elusive. The legislative landscape in the US is also sending positive signals. The House of Representatives is considering two pro-crypto bills, the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act and the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act. Democrat leaders reportedly refrained from urging members to vote against these bills, which is seen as a significant step forward for the industry. Furthermore, the US crypto industry and lobbyists are heavily backing the FIT21 Act, with 60 companies urging swift passage in a recent letter. Ethereum's Future Hinges on SEC Decision The potential approval of spot Ether ETFs would be a game-changer for Ethereum. It could solidify its position as a mainstream asset class and potentially clear up lingering legal uncertainties.  While the SEC's final verdict is yet to be announced, one thing is clear: their decision will have a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency market. With growing investor confidence and a shift in the regulatory landscape, Ethereum seems poised for a bright future.    
    • Hang Seng Index Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart,       Hang Seng Index Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: corrective   STRUCTURE:red wave 2 POSITION: blue wave 3 DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER  DEGREES: red wave 3                                         DETAILS:red wave 1 looking completed at 19787.10. Now red wave 2 of 3 is in play. Wave Cancel invalid level: 16044.39   The Elliott Wave analysis for the Hang Seng Index on the daily chart provides a comprehensive view of its current trend movements. The analysis characterizes the overall function as a trend, indicating that the Hang Seng Index is following a recognizable and sustained directional movement.   The mode of this trend is described as corrective, which typically involves a temporary counter-move against the prevailing trend. Within this corrective mode, the primary structure identified is red wave 2, suggesting that the index is currently in the second wave of a corrective phase.   At present, the position within this structure is blue wave 3, indicating that the market is part of a larger corrective sequence moving through the red wave 2 phase. This positioning is crucial as it determines the immediate market behavior and potential future movements.   The direction for the next higher degrees is projected to be red wave 3, implying that after the completion of the current corrective phase (red wave 2), the market is expected to enter a more significant upward trend in red wave 3. This transition from corrective to impulsive phases often marks a pivotal shift in market sentiment.   Key details highlighted include the completion of red wave 1 at a specific level, indicating that the initial corrective move has concluded. Currently, red wave 2 of 3 is in play, marking the ongoing corrective phase before the anticipated transition to red wave 3. This phase is critical as it sets the stage for the next major market movement.   An important aspect of this analysis is the wave cancel invalid level, set at 16044.39. If the market price moves beyond this level, it would invalidate the current wave count and necessitate a re-evaluation of the wave structure. This level serves as a crucial checkpoint for confirming the accuracy of the Elliott Wave pattern and the expected market behavior.   In summary, the Hang Seng Index is currently in a corrective trend within red wave 2 of blue wave 3. The completion of red wave 1 sets the stage for the ongoing red wave 2, with the market expected to transition into red wave 3. Monitoring the invalidation level is essential to validate the current wave count and anticipated market movements.     Hang Seng Index Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Weekly Chart,       Hang Seng Index Elliott Wave Technical Analysis           FUNCTION: Trend MODE: impulsive STRUCTURE:blue wave 3 POSITION: black wave  DIRECTION NEXT LOWER  DEGREES: blue wave 4 DETAILS:blue wave 2 looking completed at 16044.39. Now blue wave 3 is in play. Wave Cancel invalid level: 14780.30       The Elliott Wave analysis for the Hang Seng Index on the weekly chart provides insights into its current trend dynamics. The analysis identifies the overall function as a trend, suggesting that the index is in a sustained directional movement.     The mode of this trend is characterized as impulsive, indicating strong, decisive movements that are in the direction of the larger trend. Within this impulsive mode, the primary structure identified is blue wave 3. This suggests that the index is currently in the third wave of an impulsive sequence, which typically involves the most significant and powerful movements within an Elliott Wave cycle.   The current position within this structure is black wave 1, indicating that the market is in the initial phase of the blue wave 3 sequence. This phase is critical as it sets the foundation for subsequent waves and often involves substantial price movements.   The direction for the next lower degrees is projected to be blue wave 4, implying that after the completion of the current blue wave 3, the market is expected to enter a corrective phase in blue wave 4. This transition is significant as it often involves a retracement of the prior impulsive move before resuming the trend.   Key details in the analysis highlight the completion of blue wave 2 at a specific level, indicating that the corrective phase preceding the current impulsive move has concluded. Now, blue wave 3 is in play, marking the ongoing impulsive phase that follows blue wave 2. This phase is crucial as it often represents the strongest part of the Elliott Wave cycle.   An important aspect of the analysis is the wave cancel invalid level, set at 14780.30. If the market price moves beyond this level, it would invalidate the current wave count and necessitate a re-evaluation of the wave structure. This level serves as a critical checkpoint for confirming the accuracy of the Elliott Wave pattern and the expected market behavior.   In summary, the Hang Seng Index is currently in an impulsive trend within blue wave 3 of black wave 1. The completion of blue wave 2 sets the stage for the ongoing blue wave 3, with the market expected to transition into blue wave 4 next. Monitoring the invalidation level is essential to validate the current wave count and anticipated market movements.   Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • GBPAUD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart,       British Pound/ Australian Dollar (GBPAUD) Day Chart GBPAUD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: impulsive      STRUCTURE: Blue wave C POSITION: black wave 2 DIRECTION NEXT LOWER  DEGREES: black wave 3 DETAILS: blue wave B of 2 looking completed , now blue wave C of 2 is in play. Wave Cancel invalid level: 1.99747   The Elliott Wave analysis for the British Pound/Australian Dollar (GBPAUD) on the daily chart provides insights into the current counter trend movements. The analysis identifies the mode as impulsive within the blue wave C structure, indicating a strong and definitive directional move that is typically seen in corrective phases.   The primary structure under scrutiny is blue wave C, with the current position marked within black wave 2. This positioning signifies that the currency pair is in the second wave of a corrective phase, progressing through the blue wave C sequence. This phase often entails a significant push in the market as part of a larger corrective pattern.   The analysis also highlights the next lower degree direction, which is black wave 3. This suggests that after the completion of the current wave, the market is expected to enter black wave 3, marking another impulsive move following the corrective phase.   Key details include the completion of blue wave B of 2, indicating that this corrective wave segment has concluded, and the market is now advancing into blue wave C of 2. This transition is crucial as it marks the onset of the next impulsive move within the corrective pattern, characterized by strong price action.   A critical aspect of this analysis is the wave cancel invalid level, set just below a specific threshold. If the market moves beyond this level, it would invalidate the current wave count and necessitate a reassessment of the wave structure, potentially indicating a shift in the market’s direction.   In summary, the Elliott Wave analysis for GBPAUD on the daily chart indicates a counter trend impulsive movement within blue wave C of black wave 2. With the completion of blue wave B, the market is now progressing into blue wave C. Monitoring the invalidation level is essential to track possible changes in market behavior and ensure the accuracy of the Elliott Wave pattern.     GBPAUD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4 Hour Chart,       British Pound/ Australian Dollar (GBPAUD) 4 Hour Chart     GBPAUD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: impulsive as C STRUCTURE: red wave 3 POSITION:blue wave C DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES:red wave 4                                       DETAILS: red wave 2 of C looking completed at 1.89076 , now red wave 3 is in play . Wave Cancel invalid level: 1.89012                                   The Elliott Wave analysis for the British Pound/Australian Dollar (GBPAUD) on the 4-hour chart highlights the current market dynamics from a counter trend perspective. The analysis identifies the mode as impulsive within the context of wave C, suggesting a strong directional movement typically observed in corrective phases that follow an ABC pattern.   The primary wave structure in focus is red wave three, indicating that the currency pair is in the midst of a significant impulsive wave. The current position is identified within blue wave C, which is part of the larger red wave three sequence. This suggests that the market is experiencing a powerful move within the broader corrective wave pattern.   The direction for the next lower degrees is red wave four, indicating that following the completion of the current impulsive wave, a corrective phase (red wave four) is expected. This phase typically involves a retracement before the market continues in its overall trend direction.   Key details from the analysis include the completion of red wave two of C at a specific level. With this wave now completed, the market is advancing into red wave three. This transition marks the beginning of the next impulsive sequence, characterized by strong and directional price movements.   A critical aspect of this analysis is the wave cancel invalid level, set just below the completion level of red wave two. This level serves as a crucial threshold; if the market moves beyond this point, it would invalidate the current wave count. This would necessitate a reassessment of the wave structure and could indicate a potential shift in the market direction.   In summary, the Elliott Wave analysis for GBPAUD on the 4-hour chart indicates an ongoing counter trend impulsive movement within red wave three of blue wave C. With the completion of red wave two, the market is now progressing into red wave three. Monitoring the invalidation level is essential for tracking possible changes in the market’s behavior and ensuring the accuracy of the Elliott Wave pattern.   Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us