Non-Farm Payrolls Special Coverage - February 3, 2023

[MongiIG]

Special Coverage of the Non-Farm Payrolls pre-market release with Angeline One & Josh Mahoney.

 

[MongiIG]

Breaking News - US NFPs Surge to 517k vs 185k Expectations, Unemployment Rate Falls to 3.4%

Feb 3, 2023 | DailyFX
Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

Source: Bloomberg

 

US DOLLAR (DXY) PRICE AND CHART ANALYSIS

• US NFPs smash expectations in January.
• US dollar picks up a bid.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 517k in January, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hourly earnings also beat expectations. Last month’s NFP figure was also revised higher from 223k to 260k.

‘ Job growth was widespread in January, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.’

 

 

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25 basis points at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting, a move fully expected, and priced in by the market. Fed chair Powell, while continuing to stress that further rises are data dependent, added a new word to his FOMC vocabulary, disinflation, sending the US dollar lower and risk markets sharply higher. Powell said that it is a ‘good thing that disinflation so far has not come at expense of labor market’, adding that ‘this disinflationary period is in early stages’. While chair Powell will still keep tightening monetary policy to break the back of inflation, financial markets are now pricing in just one more 25bp rate hike at the March meeting before a pause in Q2 and Q3, while rate cuts are now seen in Q4.

FOMC Hikes Rates 25 bps as Expected, Leaves Open Further Hike Expectations

The US dollar (DXY) picked up a bid post-release rising around 60 cents to 101.90

US DOLLAR (DXY) DAILY PRICE CHART – FEBRUARY 3, 2023

 

 

What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?