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My personal FX pairs and XAUUSD analysis


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[Here’s why you need proper risk management in trading]
 
Imagine:
 
There are two traders, John and Sally.
 
They both start with a $1,000 account
John is an aggressive trader and he risks $250 on each trade.
 
Sally is a conservative trader and she risks $20 on each trade.
 
Both adopt a trading strategy that wins 50% of the time with an average of 1:2 risk to reward.
 
Over the next 8 trades, the outcomes are Lose Lose Lose Lose Win Win Win Win.
 
Here’s the outcome for John:
 
-$250 -$250 -$250 -$250 = BLOW UP
 
Here’s the outcome for Sally:
 
-$20 -$20 -$20 -$20 +$40 +$40 +$40 +$40 = +$80
 
Do you see the power of risk management?
 
So here’s the deal:
 
As a trader, you’ll encounter losses regularly.
 
But with proper risk management, you can contain these losses till it feels like an “ant bite”.
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GOLD (#XAUUSD): Update & The Thing to Watch
 
The market keeps coiling on a critical daily horizontal support.
 
Analyzing a 4H time frame, I spotted a potential inverted head & shoulders pattern.
The price has already completed the left shoulder and the head and currently, it is forming the right shoulder.
 
1842 - 1850 is its horizontal neckline.
The trigger to buy Gold will be its bullish breakout (4h candle close above).
A bullish continuation will be expected to 1866 / 1879 levels then.
 
If the price sets a new low, the pattern will become invalid though.

gold.jpg

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Gold (#XAUUSD): The Breakout! 🟡
 
So it turned out that 🔻Gold dropped again.
After the release of US fundamentals on Friday,
bears started to push.
 
The price managed to close below a key daily horizontal structure support cluster.
It turned into resistance now.
 
Probabilities are high, and the market will keep falling next week.
Next support - 1787

gold.jpg

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Dollar Index (#DXY): Key Levels to Watch
 
Here is my latest structure analysis for ⚠️Dollar Index.
 
Resistance 1: 105.3 - 105.8 area
Resistance 2: 106.8 - 107.2 area
Resistance 3: 107.80 - 108 area
 
Support 1: 103.6 - 103.95 area
Support 2: 102.25 - 103.2 area
 
Vertical Support 1: rising trend line
 
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.

dxy.jpg

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#USDJPY: Bulls May Push Higher
 
Update for my Friday's post on 🟢USDJPY.
The price managed to close above a solid resistance cluster.
It turned into a support now.
 
The bullish rally will most likely continue.
Next resistance - 137.8
 
Wait for an occasional retest of a broken structure for safer entries.

usdjpy.jpg

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Gold (#XAUUSD): Time To Sell 🟡
 
🔻Gold is retesting a recently broken structure.
The price has nicely respected a confluence point based on the underlined resistance and 618 retracement of the last bearish impulse.
 
As the extra confirmation, the price formed a double top pattern.
 
I expect a bearish move to 1808 / 1801

gold.jpg

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#EURCAD: Detailed Technical Outlook
 
Here is the wave analysis for ⚠️EURCAD.
 
The market is currently consolidating with a horizontal trading range on a weekly, after a strong bullish impulse.
1.46 - 1.465 is the resistance of the range,
1.423 - 1.43 is its support.
 
The upper boundary of the range matches perfectly with a key weekly resistance.
 
Depending on the reaction of the price to the boundaries of the range, I see 2 potential scenarios:
If the price breaks and closes above the resistance of the range, one more bullish wave will be expected.
While, a bearish breakout of the support of the range will most likely initiate a correctional movement.
 
Wait for a breakout and then follow the market.

eurcad.jpg

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#GBPJPY: Classic Trend Following
 
🟢GBPJPY remains very bullish from the beginning of the year.
After the last impulsive movement, the market retraced to a peculiar confluence zone.
I see a perfect match between 0.5 retracement of the last bullish leg and a horizontal structure support.
 
I will expect a pullback from that to 165.0 / 165.7
vwap mt4 indicator

gbpjpy.jpg

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#USDCHF: Detailed Structure Analysis 🇺🇸🇨🇭
 
Here is my latest structure analysis for ⚠️USDCHF.
 
Support 1: 0.928 - 0.933 area
Support 2: 0.922 - 0.923 area
Support 3: 0.9137 - 0.916 area
 
Resistance 1: 0.942 - 0.946 area
Resistance 2: 0.954 - 0.955 area
 
Consider these structure for pullback/breakout trading.

usdchf.jpg

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#CADCHF: Bearish Move From Key Level
 
It looks like 🔻CADCHF may drop.
The price reached a solid horizontal resistance and formed a tiny double top pattern on an hourly time frame. Now we see a strong bearish pressure.
 
I expect a bearish continuation to 0.6913 / 0.6905

cadchf.jpg

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#GBPCAD: Your Trading Plan For Today
 
⚠️GBPCAD is coiling on a key level.
I see a horizontal trading range on 1H time frame.
 
1.6263 - 1.6274 is its neckline.
Wait for its bullish breakout (hourly candle close above).
It will be your confirmation to buy.
 
Open long aggressively or on a retest then.
Goals will be 1.6307 / 1.633
 
If the price sets a new lower low, the setup will become invalid.

gbpcad.jpg

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#AUDNZD: Bearish Outlook Explained
 
🔻AUDNZD is testing a wide daily horizontal supply area.
The price formed a double top pattern, approaching that on an hourly time frame
and broke its neckline with a high momentum bearish candle.
 
I expect a retracement to 1.0848 / 1.0828

audnzd.jpg

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BITCOIN (#BTCUSD): Detailed Technical Outlook ₿
 
⚠️Bitcoin successfully violated a wide horizontal daily demand area.
The broken structure turned into a supply zone.
 
The market is correcting now.
I spotted a bearish flag pattern on 4H time frame.
Its bearish breakout may initiate the next sell off.
Watch carefully the reaction of the price to its rising support.
Consider shorting after a 4H candle close below with initial target being 22100.

 

bitcoin.jpg

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Dow Jones Index (#US30): Key Levels to Watch This Week
 
Here is my latest structure analysis for 🔻US30 Index.
 
Support 1: 32470 - 32650 area
Support 2: 31700 - 31975 area
 
Resistance 1: 33475 - 33660 area
Resistance 2: 34300 - 34500 area
Resistance 3: 34820 - 34900 area
 
Vertical Resistance 1: major rising trend line .
 
Currently, the market is approaching a confluence zone based on Vertical & Horizontal Resistance 1.
Probabilities will be high to see a pullback from there.
 
Consider the underlined structures for pullback/breakout trading.

us30.jpg

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