My personal FX pairs and XAUUSD analysis

[DominicWalsh]

#USDCAD: Important Breakout

 

🟢USDCAD suddenly bounced yesterday.

The price formed a high momentum bullish candle, breaking a solid horizontal resistance and a primary falling trend line.

 

I believe that bulls may push the price much higher now.

Next goal - 1.366

[DominicWalsh]

DOLLAR INDEX (#DXY) Bullish Continuation

 

Update for my yesterday's post on 🟢Dollar Index.

 

The market successfully broke the neckline of a triple bottom pattern on 4H.

We see a positive bullish reaction after a retest.

 

A bullish continuation is expected now to 104.56 / 104.95

[DominicWalsh]

[Here’s why you need proper risk management in trading]

 

Imagine:

 

There are two traders, John and Sally.

 

They both start with a $1,000 account

John is an aggressive trader and he risks $250 on each trade.

 

Sally is a conservative trader and she risks $20 on each trade.

 

Both adopt a trading strategy that wins 50% of the time with an average of 1:2 risk to reward.

 

Over the next 8 trades, the outcomes are Lose Lose Lose Lose Win Win Win Win.

 

Here’s the outcome for John:

 

-$250 -$250 -$250 -$250 = BLOW UP

 

Here’s the outcome for Sally:

 

-$20 -$20 -$20 -$20 +$40 +$40 +$40 +$40 = +$80

 

Do you see the power of risk management?

 

So here’s the deal:

 

As a trader, you’ll encounter losses regularly.

 

But with proper risk management, you can contain these losses till it feels like an “ant bite”.

[DominicWalsh]

GOLD (#XAUUSD): Update & The Thing to Watch

 

The market keeps coiling on a critical daily horizontal support.

 

Analyzing a 4H time frame, I spotted a potential inverted head & shoulders pattern.

The price has already completed the left shoulder and the head and currently, it is forming the right shoulder.

 

1842 - 1850 is its horizontal neckline.

The trigger to buy Gold will be its bullish breakout (4h candle close above).

A bullish continuation will be expected to 1866 / 1879 levels then.

 

If the price sets a new low, the pattern will become invalid though.

[DominicWalsh]

#CADJPY: Pullback From Key Level

 

CADJPY reached a solid horizontal key level yesterday.

The price formed an inverted head & shoulders pattern on that on 1H time frame.

Its neckline was broken then.

 

I expect a bullish move to 100.0 / 100.25

[DominicWalsh]

#GBPAUD: Important Breakout

 

🟢GBPAUD was stuck for some time on 1.75 - 1.763 horizontal supply area.

That structure was finally broken this week.

It turned in a demand zone now.

 

I will expect a bullish wave from that at least to 1.788

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[DominicWalsh]

#EURGBP: Time to Fall

EURGBP has nicely respected a wide 4H horizontal supply area.
The price formed a triple top pattern on that and broke its neckline then.

I expect a bearish move to 0.8798 / 0.8789

 

[DominicWalsh]

Nasdaq-100 Index (#US100) Short Trade Explained

 

🔻Nasdaq Index is approaching a key daily structure resistance.

The price has formed a descending triangle formation on that on 1H time frame.

Its neckline was broken, and an hourly candle closed below that, confirming a highly probable coming bearish movement.

 

Next support: 12000

 

[DominicWalsh]

#USDJPY: Waiting For a Breakout

 

⚠️USDJPY is testing a solid horizontal daily resistance.

If the price breaks and closes above 134.5 - 135.5 area,

it will push the market much higher.

 

The next goal for buyers will be 137.6 level.

[DominicWalsh]

Gold (#XAUUSD): The Breakout! 🟡

 

So it turned out that 🔻Gold dropped again.

After the release of US fundamentals on Friday,

bears started to push.

 

The price managed to close below a key daily horizontal structure support cluster.

It turned into resistance now.

 

Probabilities are high, and the market will keep falling next week.

Next support - 1787

[DominicWalsh]

Dollar Index (#DXY): Key Levels to Watch

 

Here is my latest structure analysis for ⚠️Dollar Index.

 

Resistance 1: 105.3 - 105.8 area

Resistance 2: 106.8 - 107.2 area

Resistance 3: 107.80 - 108 area

 

Support 1: 103.6 - 103.95 area

Support 2: 102.25 - 103.2 area

 

Vertical Support 1: rising trend line

 

Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.

[DominicWalsh]

#USDJPY: Bulls May Push Higher

 

Update for my Friday's post on 🟢USDJPY.

The price managed to close above a solid resistance cluster.

It turned into a support now.

 

The bullish rally will most likely continue.

Next resistance - 137.8

 

Wait for an occasional retest of a broken structure for safer entries.

[DominicWalsh]

Gold (#XAUUSD): Time To Sell 🟡

 

🔻Gold is retesting a recently broken structure.

The price has nicely respected a confluence point based on the underlined resistance and 618 retracement of the last bearish impulse.

 

As the extra confirmation, the price formed a double top pattern.

 

I expect a bearish move to 1808 / 1801

[DominicWalsh]

#USDCAD: Key Levels to Watch This Week

 

Here is my latest structure analysis for ⚠️USDCAD.

 

Resistance 1: 1.366 - 1.3707 area

Resistance 2: 1.3745 - 1.381 area

 

Support 1: 1.347 - 1.352 area

Support 2: 1.3225 - 1.329 area

 

Vertical Support 1: major falling trend line .

 

Consider these structures for pullback or breakout trading strategy.

[DominicWalsh]

#EURCAD: Detailed Technical Outlook

 

Here is the wave analysis for ⚠️EURCAD.

 

The market is currently consolidating with a horizontal trading range on a weekly, after a strong bullish impulse.

1.46 - 1.465 is the resistance of the range,

1.423 - 1.43 is its support.

 

The upper boundary of the range matches perfectly with a key weekly resistance.

 

Depending on the reaction of the price to the boundaries of the range, I see 2 potential scenarios:

If the price breaks and closes above the resistance of the range, one more bullish wave will be expected.

While, a bearish breakout of the support of the range will most likely initiate a correctional movement.

 

Wait for a breakout and then follow the market.

[DominicWalsh]

#GBPJPY: Classic Trend Following

 

🟢GBPJPY remains very bullish from the beginning of the year.

After the last impulsive movement, the market retraced to a peculiar confluence zone.

I see a perfect match between 0.5 retracement of the last bullish leg and a horizontal structure support.

 

I will expect a pullback from that to 165.0 / 165.7
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[DominicWalsh]

#USDCHF: Detailed Structure Analysis 🇺🇸🇨🇭

 

Here is my latest structure analysis for ⚠️USDCHF.

 

Support 1: 0.928 - 0.933 area

Support 2: 0.922 - 0.923 area

Support 3: 0.9137 - 0.916 area

 

Resistance 1: 0.942 - 0.946 area

Resistance 2: 0.954 - 0.955 area

 

Consider these structure for pullback/breakout trading.

[DominicWalsh]

Dow Jones Index (#US30): Oversold Market & Pullback

 

🟢Dow Jones Index reached a key level.

Testing that, the price formed an inverted head & shoulders pattern on an hourly time frame

and broke a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern then.

 

I expect a pullback now.

Goals: 32950 / 33110

[DominicWalsh]

Crude Oil (#WTI): Bearish Outlook Explained 🛢

 

🔻Crude Oil is coiling on a key horizontal resistance.

The price formed a double top pattern, testing that

and broke its neckline then.

 

We may see a retracement from the underlined blue zone.

Goals: 76.9 / 76.36

[DominicWalsh]

#EURCAD: Important Breakout

 

🟢EURCAD broke and closed above a major horizontal supply cluster with a high momentum bullish candle yesterday.

1.441 - 1.446 is now turned into a demand zone.

 

I will expect a bullish wave from that area to 1.455 / 1.46 levels.

[DominicWalsh]

#CADCHF: Bearish Move From Key Level

 

It looks like 🔻CADCHF may drop.

The price reached a solid horizontal resistance and formed a tiny double top pattern on an hourly time frame. Now we see a strong bearish pressure.

 

I expect a bearish continuation to 0.6913 / 0.6905

[DominicWalsh]

#GBPCAD: Your Trading Plan For Today

 

⚠️GBPCAD is coiling on a key level.

I see a horizontal trading range on 1H time frame.

 

1.6263 - 1.6274 is its neckline.

Wait for its bullish breakout (hourly candle close above).

It will be your confirmation to buy.

 

Open long aggressively or on a retest then.

Goals will be 1.6307 / 1.633

 

If the price sets a new lower low, the setup will become invalid.

[DominicWalsh]

#NZDCAD: Bullish Outlook Explained

 

🟢NZDCAD is taking off from a key horizontal support.

The price formed a double bottom on that and broke its neckline then.

 

I expect a bullish continuation to 0.851 / 0.854

[DominicWalsh]

Gold (#XAUUSD): Key Levels to Watch This Week 🟡

 

Here is my latest structure analysis for ⚠️Gold.

 

Support 1: 1843 - 1853 area

Support 2: 1804 - 1811 area

 

Resistance 1: 1875 - 1904 area

Resistance 2: 1950 - 1959 area

 

Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading next week.
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[DominicWalsh]

#AUDNZD: Bearish Outlook Explained

 

🔻AUDNZD is testing a wide daily horizontal supply area.

The price formed a double top pattern, approaching that on an hourly time frame

and broke its neckline with a high momentum bearish candle.

 

I expect a retracement to 1.0848 / 1.0828

[DominicWalsh]

S&P500 Index (#SPY): Time to Sell

 

🔻S&P500 Index is testing a wide daily horizontal resistance cluster.

Probabilities will be high to see a bearish reaction from that.

 

I believe that the market may drop today to 4032 / 4021 levels.

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[DominicWalsh]

BITCOIN (#BTCUSD): Detailed Technical Outlook ₿

 

⚠️Bitcoin successfully violated a wide horizontal daily demand area.

The broken structure turned into a supply zone.

 

The market is correcting now.

I spotted a bearish flag pattern on 4H time frame.

Its bearish breakout may initiate the next sell off.

Watch carefully the reaction of the price to its rising support.

Consider shorting after a 4H candle close below with initial target being 22100.

 

[DominicWalsh]

Gold (#XAUUSD): Time For Pullback 🟡

 

🟢Gold is approaching a wide horizontal demand cluster on 4H.

Taking into consideration, that the market is trading in a minor bullish trend,

probabilities will be high to see a pullback from the underlined area.

 

I expect growth to 1855 / 1862

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[DominicWalsh]

Crude Oil (#WTI): Bearish Outlook Explained 🛢

 

🔻WTI Crude Oil reached a key daily structure resistance.

The price formed a tiny little double top on that on 1H time frame.

Its neckline has been just broken.

 

The market will most likely keep retracing.

Goals: 79.9 / 79.6

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[DominicWalsh]

Dow Jones Index (#US30): Key Levels to Watch This Week

 

Here is my latest structure analysis for 🔻US30 Index.

 

Support 1: 32470 - 32650 area

Support 2: 31700 - 31975 area

 

Resistance 1: 33475 - 33660 area

Resistance 2: 34300 - 34500 area

Resistance 3: 34820 - 34900 area

 

Vertical Resistance 1: major rising trend line .

 

Currently, the market is approaching a confluence zone based on Vertical & Horizontal Resistance 1.

Probabilities will be high to see a pullback from there.

 

Consider the underlined structures for pullback/breakout trading.