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FTSE and DAX boosted by improved banking sentiment and strong IFO


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European banking confidence improves significantly as German IFO rises.

 

bg_german_european_union_flags_364587461Source: Bloomberg

 
 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 28 March 2023 

Reports that US officials will expand lending facilities to banks and confirmation of the acquisition of SVB's loans and deposits by First Citizens bank have helped restore a sense of calm to European banks and equity indices overnight.

Also providing support, the release of robust macro data as Germany's IFO business climate index rose to 93.3 from 91.1 in February, the highest print since the Russian invasion of Ukraine (chart below).

The bulk of the gains in the headline IFO index was driven by firmer expectations for the forward-looking Business expectations, which rose to 91.2 from 88.4 in February. The current conditions index also rose to 95.4 from 93.9 in February.

The strong IFO number confirms the upside surprises in last week's flash PMI data. German businesses remain optimistic despite recent banking stress, which is expected to weigh in future months via tighter lending.

IFO chart

 

IFO27thofMarch.pngSource: Trading Economics

Given central bank's stubborn focus on inflation, there will be keen interest in European inflation data later this week, which is expected to fall following sharp declines in wholesale energy prices.

  • The flash estimate of Euro Area Harmonised inflation (Friday) is expected to print at 7.1% in March, down from 8.5% in February and well below its peak of 10.6% in October
  • German Headline inflation (Thursday) is expected to fall to 7.3% in March from 8.7% in February.

DAX technical analysis

The view remains that the Dax completed a five-wave advance (Elliott Wave) from the October 11,829 low to the recent 15720 high and is currently tracing out a corrective pullback.

The bounce from the 14617 low is viewed as Wave B or the second wave of the correction, which is missing another leg lower into the 14,400/14,200 support band.

However, if the Dax first breaks above trendline resistance and the recent highs 15,700/20 area, it would indicate the correction is complete at the 14,617 low, and the uptrend has resumed.

DAX daily chart

 

FDAX1_2023-03-28_11-43-29.pngSource: TradingView

FTSE technical analysis

The break below the band of horizontal support 7700/7650 in Mid-March confirms that a medium-term high is in place at the February 8047 high and that the FTSE is currently tracing out a corrective pullback.

The bounce from the 7206 low is viewed as Wave B or the second wave of a three-wave correction that has room to extend back to resistance at 7700 before a deeper decline towards 7100/7000 in the weeks ahead.

FTSE daily chart

 

UKX_2023-03-28_11-47-10.pngSource: TradingView

  1. TradingView: the figures stated are as of March 23rd, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
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