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​Orange juice rallies to all-time record high while Brent crude rally fades and gold slips


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Outlook on Brent crude oil, orange juice and gold as the US dollar continues to appreciate.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 25 May 2023 

Brent crude oil trades in near one-month highs

Brent crude oil prices have risen for three consecutive days on supply tightening worries, gaining nearly 4% and rising to a near one-month high. This rally occurred on the back of comments by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister who warned short sellers to “watch out” for potential consequences, raising speculations that OPEC+ could envisage further output cuts at a meeting on June 4. Technically speaking, Brent crude oil is approaching its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $78.76 which, together with the $79.04 February low, is likely to act as resistance this week. Slips should find support between the 10 May high at $77.51 and last week’s high at $77.42.

25052023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold revisits support

The price of gold is slipping back towards last week’s low at $1,952 per troy ounce following Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes which showed a split between "some" wanting more rate increases versus "several" who did not on expectations of a slowdown in growth, even if the decision to raise rates to 5.00%-5.25% was a unanimous one. Failure at $1,952 would engage the late March lows at $1,945 to $1,935. Further down sit the $1,901 to $1,897 mid- to late January lows. Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while Wednesday’s high at $1,985 isn’t bettered on a daily chart closing basis.

25052023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Orange juice trades in new all-time record highs

Front month orange juice futures have risen to a new all-time record high as ongoing supply concerns following the worst orange crop in Florida since the 1920s pushes prices higher. Unless Brazil increases its supply, the citrus fruit price is expected to rally further and might soon reach the psychological $3 per pound mark. The all-time record high set on Wednesday was made around the $2.87 level. Minor support below the April peak at $2.8038 lies around the 8 May high at $2.5348 and further potential support at this week’s $2.6663 to $2.6430 price gap.

25052023OJ-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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