Cryptocurrency Mega Thread

[Caseynotes]

Hi   I am pretty sure  has said that you will always be able to exit a position, it is the opening of new positions that could be a problem depending on the level of IG's exposure. Can't find the thread, maybe James can confirm.

[Situation]

James could you clarify.

 

I had to call ig at that time. You can close it if that is the only position you have but if you are already long then you cant close it as you would be overall more long (buy to close the sell). Maybe you could use a stop loss.... but they are far from the market price so you'll give a lot of profit back anyway.

[Caseynotes]

  See  https://community.ig.com/t5/FX-and-Cryptocurrency/Historical-bitcoin-corrections-Logarithmic-scale/m-p/16944/highlight/true#M1927

 

[JamesIG]

Hi - let me also clarify a few things which relate to trading and exposure, and using the force open functionality on a deal ticket. Put simply, there is no financial benefit from having a long and a short in the same market at the same time, and if held overnight it will actually be more costly as you would be paying 2x the cost of overnight funding. 

 

If you have a long and a short your exposure is zero. You are basically trading exactly the same (and will have the same financial benefit) of someone who doesn't have a trade on at all. When you have a long and a short, and you are looking to close the short side, your net effect is to increase your long exposure, which will be rejected basis the 'unlongable' status. I hope this clarifies my earlier statement, but any questions just ask. 

 

 

[PIA_First_IC]

Corrective sell-off in Bitcoin

 

Introduction 

I have no agenda, apart from being pestered by a nagging desire, to write at least one piece of analysis on Bitcoin (BTC). As an FCA regulated firm, we are currently contemplating adding this to our extensive list of products but the jury is still out! This analysis is based on technical analysis and is my view only. I have never owned Bitcoin and have been naturally green-eyed in the mind-blowing rally that has taken place in this asset over the recent months!

 

So, I have nothing to gain this morning in producing this piece apart from, hopefully, utilizing my expertise in analysis, trading and writing trade ideas, in the hope that someone (or many) may benefit from my knowledge & wisdom and ultimately…come back for more!!

 

I have a lot to say but I know how busy everyone’s life is and so I will keep this as brief as possible to encapsulate the world’s 8-second attention span! (I don’t know how true this is – hopefully not otherwise I am the only one reading from here on!)

 

What do I know about Bitcoin? VERY LITTLE!

What do I know about writing trade ideas? PLENTY!

 

Do I need to know anything about Bitcoin to write this trade idea? Not really, it’s all about technical analysis on the historic price chart – I’m not analysing the fundamentals. That’s another story and way more boring than this!!

 

Warning – there may be some trading/market psychology thrown into the mix but I will not dwell on it too long!

 

Looks familiar!?

I consider the best way of analysing is on a more medium-term basis – firstly the short-term technical charts have so much noise, it is highly likely that a trade idea is stopped before it is finished writing!! Secondly, there is no long-term chart! The market is a newbie…

 

Before I start – 2 charts below with time-frame and price removed – look familiar?

    

Chart 1 is a weekly chart of BTC over the last 2 years and chart 2 is monthly chart of Gold (XAUUSD) over the last 2 decades! Interesting!?

 

Analysis

Price action topped out close to 20,000 and is currently in a corrective formation lower and trading near the psychological 10,000 level (over 50% retracement since inception. A clear break of this level should lead to a more aggressive leg lower, in a typical AB=CD correction towards 8,000 towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is the first time, since 15/09/2017, that prices have broken below the Ichimoku cloud.

 

 

Trade Ideas

Two scenarios to contemplate – one for the bulls and one for the bears!

 

Bearish scenario:

Sell a pull-back to 12,500 & 14,000

Stop at 15,500

Targets 8,500 & 6,000

 

Bullish scenario:

Buy a dip to 8,500 & 6,000

Stop at 4,500

Targets 12,500 & 14,000

 

I hope you have enjoyed my brief analysis. If you are interested in trade ideas on FX, Equity Indices, Commodities & Single Stocks you can use the PIA First signals via IG's signal center as shown below.

 

 

RISK WARNING:

Trading carries a high level of risk to your capital. Losses can exceed deposits. FULL RISK WARNING

 

PIA-First Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, which can be checked here. FRN 787261.

Registered in England & Wales, company no. 07428345 Business address: Kemp house, 152 City Road, London. EC1V 2NX Registered office: Palladium House, 1-4 Argyll Street, Soho, London W1F 7LD

[Caseynotes]

I like this, PIA First (one of the signals companies used by IG) posting some technical analysis on the forum for us, interesting stuff, hope to see more. Sure hope oilpro doesn't see it or he will just start trolling them.

[Situation]

I dont know about the above analysis. you buy at 8500 with stop at 4500 then risk reward is 1:1 which I would not advise any trader to take. I'm not a big fan of buying dips in a massive sell off like now. They can call it a correction but people are taking profits, selling and not re investing at present. At this stage the driving force has to be good fundamental news. Waiting in the sidelines until you can see buyers come in might be more helpful.

[PIA_First_IC]

Thankfully i know a lot about analysis and more about trade ideas!

That is the reason the both trades have 2 entries (buy at 8,500 & 6,000 = average entry 7,250)

Targets are also at 2 levels which makes the target an average of 13,250

So, overall risk/reward is over 2:1! (like most of our trade ideas)

I hope that better explains the idea.

Thank you for the critique, it is always much appreciated.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

The risk reward ratio is an always an interesting topic and to look at it from a different perspective buying a dip of around 50% of the main move the first target for me is always the prior high (or First Trouble Area) which is just 1:1. Because although you hope price will punch straight through and carry on with trend to a second target you must be prepared for the possibility the previous high is at a level of strong resistance enough to halt the trend. If the trend is strong you will often see a concerted effort to push hard through any obvious resistance levels on the chart but price trepidation at these levels indicates lack of faith and the real possibility your entry will be the next level to be tested. 

[JamesIG]

I just needed to remind community members of IG's official stance on this. In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.

 

And now may the thread continue.  

[Caseynotes]

Can't deny there was clear declaration attached to these posts. But to have professional technical analysis (not automatically a traders analysis) posted on the forum is a bonus, these guy have been on continuous professional development courses costing amounts we would struggle to imagine and that we certainly have never experienced. This is high quality stuff but never meant to be the sole last word but given freely to incorporate as seen fit into your own analysis. 

[Caseynotes]

Yes, thank god the stuff posted is professional, imagine if this was a public forum like 'Trade2Win' where anyone could post any old garbage. oh wait.

[Caseynotes]

Summary of a bitcoin trader's experience over the last year. Hair-raising.

 

[Caseynotes]

Latest down swing attributed to reports South Korea to ban trading crypto from anonymous bank accounts. The report also repeats report of possible complete ban but it was reported last week that the chairman of the Trades Commission has ruled that out as being unrealistic as they lack the authority.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/bitcoin-value-plummets-as-south-korea-bans-anonymous-trading-of-cryptocurrency-a3747076.html

 

 

 

 

[PIA_First_IC]

This is a typical story of a 'trader' who trades without a trading plan or discipline!

And this 'short story' summarises what i believe most new traders lack - education.

On reflection it's nowhere near the saddest story i've heard - some people have lost life savings chasing the dream - he's lost £3k won in a poker game!! Still a lot of money but hopefully he has learned something........

 

My advice to any newbies would be to take the time to learn about trading before opening an account.

Take advantage of the huge amount of educational material on trading that is available from 'regulated' sources.

Understand risk management, money management and risk/reward. Learn from your mistakes.

Take seriously the move from a 'demo' to 'live' as the psychology is different, although many would argue it shouldn't be! IT IS!!

Forget the get rich quick stories and be realistic about your goals and expectations.

 

If you apply some of the good practice mentioned above then you will improve your chances of success but remember.....

Your capital is at risk!

 

[Caseynotes]

Good 15min periscope report on current crypto market.

 

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1yoKMMwjaQRKQ

 

 

[Benny]

, any chance you guys could lower the spread on bitcoin, particularly during periods of relative 'low' volatility..? It could help IG win business from the likes of GAIN, who seem to always adjust their bitcoin spread after IG.

[Caseynotes]

Recent downturn linked to regulators inquiries and suspicion Tether not holding the claimed $2.3 billion in reserve and may have been creating coin not backed by dollar and using them to buy bitcoin. (video interview)

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/crypto-exchange-bitfinex-tether-said-to-get-subpoenaed-by-cftc

 

[PIA_First_IC]

Corrective sell-off complete...Where now for Bitcoin??

 

 

 

In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin gets a boost from Tuesday's US regulatory hearing.

 

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-price-storming-back-after-blockbuster-regulatory-hearing-on-capitol-hill-2018-2?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+

 

 

[phillo]

no, it was my red zone and trend line   haha    check my charts         :smileyhappy:

[PIA_First_IC]

No it was definitely my bearish scenario 2nd target and the rush of 'profit-takers'

 

:smileylol:

[phillo]

yer right         :smileyhappy:

[Guest ahsiong]

Bitcoin and ether seems to move so much in unison now. The hourly charts for both of them look so similar except the price of bitcoin is 10 times that of ether.

[Guest ahsiong]

Where can i find charts for the different crypto? For example, IG only has a very short history for ripple charts. I need something with a longer history. Where else can i find charts to draw my own lines and indicators? I saw some other users posting their drawn charts here, where do they get the charts from?

[Caseynotes]

Yes indeed, Trading View has the best overall package, may have to sign up for the interactive charts? but it's free. Look for crypto under 'Markets'. Click on the name for the chart.

 

https://uk.tradingview.com/

 

[Caseynotes]

Podcast and article with Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson on Cardano and all things crypto coin. (1 hour 30 min)

 

https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/cardano-founder-ada-will-better-btc-eth-1-year-interview/?utm_content=buffer7146a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[Guest ahsiong]

I'm accessing trading view website from my android phone via chrome. I want to draw some lines or Fibonacci level but i can't find the drawing panel on my phone. I can do it on my iPad or PC, so I'm wondering if there's a way to do it on my phone. Thanks.

[JamesIG]

Hi - please see the directions below. This is for iOS, however the process and charts are exactly the same. 

 

1. tap somewhere on the charts, for example in the white area below as highlighted by the circle
2. this will bring up option along the bottom
3. select drawing
4. select the tool you wish to use
5. draw away

[Guest ahsiong]

thanks James for explaining but I was asking for the method when using tradingview on my phone.