Jump to content

Trade of the Month

Guest DanC

Recommended Posts

Guest ChrisW

trading the ECB meet is more risky than the FOMC these days, which is intresting as we have the Fed meet next week.


GBP/USD seems to be happy trading in 1.44 to 1.4000 range (since early March)...5,20 day MA all moving sideways, which is usually a sign we want to trade Bollinger bands, especially with RSI mid-range. Its really tough to be long GBP given the EU referendum but no doubt the pound is very cheap. Timing as always is key.

Link to comment
  • Replies 133
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Interesting insight Chris on trading the ECB v Fed.


The pound is cheap - what will happen after the Brexit vote???  Or the day before say...  timing is the key like you said.  It seems a good buy to me sometime pre-vote. 

Link to comment
Guest ChrisW

Perhaps but polls are just so hard to call if accruate... gut tells me they stay (just going off bookies) and pound is buy but timing as I say is key... we tend not to hold FX positions for a month or two.


Still I quite like selling EUR/GBP as trend down and think Draghi opened the door for further rate cuts...yesterdays candle printed a doji, so lets see who wins this battle

Link to comment

I'm Bearish on EURGBP as well, although I am expecting a relief rally on this cross in the near future before a strong plunge.  I am expecting a major plunge on the EURUSD and GBPUSD also.  I believe Brexit is a sideshow and a distraction, it's all about the USD strength for me.  Brexit is too small an issue on the World stage and anyway why would it have any impact whatsoever?  No one has come up with anything that makes sense on that score, just fear mongering political manoeuvring.  Cue a damp squib!

Link to comment
Guest ChrisW

Technically (well price action) I too like being long with a stop through 160. Still todays meeting (likely 14:30 AEST but could be an hour or so either side) is a huge event. 1-day implied volailty is the highest in years...the market expects a massive move


I say 'why wait'...go hard here as many data points that need a short sharp jolt. But they could easily disapoint and JPY rallies hard. The prosepct of slippage is high as the move could be violent. I hope they inc QE by Y20t, cut deposit rates by 20bp and offset by offering banks loans for free (and even pay them) and we could see more ETF/JGB buying


My instint says reduce exposure but put a gun to my head and I feel JPY crosses go higher (JPY weakness)

Link to comment

That was amazing!  I couldn't get in - market moved too fast.  Hmm! 


Chris was right about the volatility being at it's highest.  Yet 2200 for the Yen.  In like 3 seconds.  Amazing.  Nikkei - 600 from +250. 

Link to comment
  • 2 months later...

Hi everyone,


I think Shorting cable will be the trade of the year even it looks like maybe too late or too early.



UK rate cut and QE are high likely, US rate hike possibility in 6 months, there are huge uncertainty about UK economy and politics at least for a year, Brexit talks will be hard and painful (no bank passport rights or single market without free movement, no EUR clearing business in London for sure), all respected economists, investment banks and traders forecast year end cable around 1.20 (even some says 1.10), I think in this environment no one can dare to go Long on Cable for a day...



I thinks Brexit clear out all elliot counts and general trading strategies. When we look at the first fibo from 1.48 and second fibo from 1.33, I don't think cable can pass 1.33 in this economic environment. When we take into account trend line coming from 1.35 together with second fibo 61.8% line, I think there is a very strong resistance at 1.31 on 4 hours chart. Also, we have a bearish triangle with trend line and bottom 1.28 line, which I think it will be broken down.


I am thinking to short and hold it all the way until 1.20. I will open total 500K short position and stop at -20K (4%)

My worst case scenario 1.35 and I will try to catch 1.32 average if there is a rally while opening positions at 1.30-31-32-33-34-35.


I need your expertise for timing. What do you think about timing, my plan and entry levels ?


I miss shorting the Crude opportunity and don't want to miss this one:)



Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Yeah, ETH seems to be on the rise lately, and experts think it could go even higher, maybe reaching $20k to $25k. BTC, on the other hand, might not rise as much, topping out at around $100k.
    • Gold price and silver price look for gains but Brent crude price under fresh pressure While precious metals have seen some renewed upside, oil prices have taken a hit in early trading. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London   Publication date: Monday 26 February 2024 11:42 Gold back at trendline resistance The price rallied over the past two weeks, and has now returned to trendline resistance from the December record high. A close above $2040 would help to suggest a break of trendline resistance, which then opens the way to the early February high around $2064, with horizontal resistance at $2060 just before this. A close back below $2030 would begin to suggest a new lower high has been created and that a push back to the February low at $1984 could now begin. Source: ProRealTime Brent crude heads lower Oil prices fell sharply on Friday, and the new week has begun with fresh losses. Mid-February saw Brent’s rally falter around $83, and this topping out appears now to have given way to a turn lower. The price has broken below trendline support from the December low, though this also happened earlier in February and was followed up by a recovery. Further declines would take the price to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and then beyond this lies February’s low around $77. Bulls will need a close back above $81.50 to indicate that trendline support has been recovered. Source: ProRealTime Silver losses halted The selling in silver was stemmed on Friday, as the price rebounded after a tough week. The price is pushing higher off its overnight lows, with short-term gains above $23.20 helping to support a cautiously bullish view. The next target becomes the mid-February high at $23.50. A close above this could mark the end of the consolidation in silver that has been ongoing since the beginning of the year. Alternately, a close back below $22.50 would open the way to the 2024 lows at $22. Source: ProRealTime
    • CAC 40, DAX 40 and Dow trade in record highs but may short-term consolidate Outlook on Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 and DAX 40 ahead of this week’s German and US inflation reports. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London   Publication date: Monday 26 February 2024 11:29 The Nikkei 225 consolidates below last week’s record high Last week’s swift ascent in the Nikkei 225 has taken it to a new record high, above that seen 34 years ago, with the psychological 40,000 mark remaining in focus. Increased foreign investment and signs of sustained profit growth among Japanese companies could lead to the 40,000 level being reached as there remains potential for significant additional foreign funds to enter Japan's stock market. However, risks such as China's economic fluctuations, potential yen strengthening, and changes in the Bank of Japan's policy could impact the index's upward trajectory. On Monday a minor retracement lower is taking the Nikkei 225 back towards its 1989 previous record high at 38,957. Below it the mid-February high and the February uptrend line at 38,876 to 38,860 should offer support. While last week’s low at 38,104 underpins, the medium-term bullish uptrend remains intact. Source: ProRealTime FTSE 100 awaits MPC member speeches The FTSE 100’s recovery from last week’s 7,623 low amid strong earnings by the likes of Anglo American and Rolls-Royce and has so far taken it to 7,717 on Friday, a level from which it is currently slipping back. It’ll need to be exceeded for last Tuesday’s 7,750 six-week high to be back in focus. Further up lurks the 7,769 December peak. Minor support below Monday’s 7,689 low sits at Friday’s 7,675 low ahead of the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and Wednesday’s low at 7,634 to 7,623. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 stalls slightly below Thursday’s record high The DAX 40 index’s swift rally to a new record high close to the 17,500 mark on Thursday is taking a breather as investors look forward to German inflation data out on Thursday. Minor support below Friday’s 17,356 low is only seen around the mid-February 17,197 high. Above the current record high at 17,448 lies the 18,000 region. Source: ProRealTime
  • Create New...