Bitcoin

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin makes a break for it in an attempt to capture the 23.6 Fib and next resistance level having broken up through 14188 (prior resistance and  38.2 Fib and down trendline) on high volume.

 

[Caseynotes]

WSJ report on "monster bet" on bitcoin causes price surge.

 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-02/bitcoin-spikes-above-14000-after-reports

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Has consolidated in a tight (for bitcoin) range, not really surprised that the recent surge up was only off the back of a WSJ news report (flighty) but there you go. The volume is back to pre-holiday highs and the new range is well marked. Waiting for a break up to retest the 23.6% Fib (which is also the 61.8% Fib for the move down) or back down to the 50%.

 

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Breaks up out of it's range of the last few days, next resistance level is 16426.

 

 

 

 

 

[Situation]

The past few weeks has given people the chance to get long on bitcoin which eventually will hit 20000 and then onwards. Any dips or move down should open a chance for bitcoin to not be 'unlongable' which will appeal to mid and long term investors. I don't think bitcoin will go into a downtrend nor will it crash. But once it starts moving it'll be difficult to get on due to it being unlongable.

 

Day trading bitcoin is difficult due to volatility and personally i feel due to the spreads shouldnt be done. Buy and hold is a better strategy.

[Situation]

What do you think will happen after all the bitcoin are mined?

 

I agree with you that it will be in demand until then but I wonder if the original investors will then sell their investments causing large price corrections.

 

Also I reckon banks might even start using the blockchain technology. Will we even need bitcoin then??

 

Would be interested to hear some views.

[Caseynotes]

Having a bad day, can't find support as it heads down to the trendline of the recent move up off the December low.

 

 

[JamesIG]

---

Situation wrote:

What do you think will happen after all the bitcoin are mined?

 

I agree with you that it will be in demand until then but I wonder if the original investors will then sell their investments causing large price corrections.

 

Also I reckon banks might even start using the blockchain technology. Will we even need bitcoin then??

 

Would be interested to hear some views.

---

 

 

Don't forget that we all (probably) won't see the last bitcoin mined in 2140, however the supply curve shows we'll hopefully all see the time when supply is significantly diminished. Check out the charts below ...

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin looks to be making it's third assault on 12772. A break there will put it into a very ragged and unconvincing support zone on the larger time frame charts.

 

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin has entered a very important support zone that needs to hold or we are likely to revisit the low of 10723.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

So bitcoin did indeed revisit 10723, now struggling to hang on to this key support level, the battle here should be interesting and could go either way. 

 

[rimmy2000]

Going lower, IMO. I don’t think the sell off is done yet.

[Situation]

If it sells below 10000 then the best advice would be to not hold long positions. Could have panic selling.

[Caseynotes]

Still seeing HODL posts on twitter though where they bought who knows. Price now 10420 and attacking the recent low at  99661. Next support level below there is  89676.

[Caseynotes]

10723 support level now turned resistance on retest, sellers still in control.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Very interesting poll on twitter. 'How far down before you bail', you might be shocked at the running score. 2,210 votes so far.

 

[Situation]

Yep that is the worry. If the trend changes just sell and wait. Sitting in cash is also a position.

[Caseynotes]

Trader sentiment (retail); longs still hodling on though has dipped to 74% as the 99660 level breaks, price now at 95000.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Recovery continues, yesterday sold off in London session, bought up in the US session then sold off again in the Asian to retest 10723 level (support turned resistance and now support again). Now being bought up in today's London session. A rollercoaster.

 

 

 

 

 

[rimmy2000]

 do you have a position here? where did you buy in?

[rimmy2000]

I'd never know how to really trade them, presumably its all on chart and pricing. I trade shares where I can assess and analyse a comany's worth, its ability to generate sales and turn them into profits. On what basis is one making these decisions on bitcoin, purely if one's expectation is bullish or bearish on the current price and future prospects I presume?

 

Is there news events to trade?

[Caseynotes]

Oh no, I don't ride rollercoasters. If you got in early great, but playing this market late is fraught with difficulties, high spreads, margin, wild swings. Happy to keep my capital tied up in more predictable markets, shame face but I even stopped playing gbpusd after brexit vote. 

[Caseynotes]

Takes a major dive this last hour clearing the 23.6 Fib (prior support) as well as the 10723 level. Now at 10489.

 

[Caseynotes]

Up move reversed at the confluence of the 200 MA, trendline and resistance level from the 4 hour chart and now looking at the 23.6% Fib level for support.

 

1 hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin slides on news of trouble at Tokyo based exchange Coincheck, halts withdrawals.

 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-26/crypto-market-slides-popular-exchange-halts-withdrawals

 

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Follow up to last post. Over $400 million stolen from Coincheck exchange.

 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-26/over-400-million-stolen-hacked-japanese-cryptocurrency-exchange

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin looks to be coiling in prep for a breakout. Symmetrical triangle, downward pressure by the 100 MA and upward pressure by trendline.

 

4 hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

As if bitcoin traders didn't have enough to worry about.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/bitcoin-trader-targeted-by-gunmen-in-uks-first-cryptocurrency-heist-in-sleepy-midsomer-murders-a3751851.html

 

[Caseynotes]

Continuing it's downward path, now 9507 and looking at 9109.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Yesterday I replaced my Fib retracement with an extension from the high and find a touch and reverse on the 1 hour today, doesn't look like it's going to hold though. I have pointed out previous examples of Fib being used repeatedly on this asset.

 

4 and 1 hour charts.