Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Bitcoin

Recommended Posts

"[With IG] ...you don’t need a wallet or additional offline storage device, and account verification               and KYC checks are automatic. You are not buying or selling the underlying Cryptocurrency, but instead speculating on the price movement."

 

Problem is, you can't long... better off buying btc and storing in a hardware wallet.

Share this post


Link to post

Tried to punch through the resistance zone overnight (see my last post in this thread from yesterday) on a single 1 hour bar but has been beaten back to find support at 15399.

 

1 hour chart.

 

BTCUSDH12712.png

Share this post


Link to post

Fallen away from resistance today to get a bounce off the upward trendline, upside target for bulls is the 62% Fib level.

MA's flat.

 

BTCUSDH12712b.png

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

I have commented before but trading Bitcoin is really in my opinion for professional day traders. Anyone else will end up losing money as they will just get stopped out due to the extreme volatility. You really would need to have an 'algorithmic black box' and the latest systematic trading system in place to even have a chance and be able to enter and exit your position within nano seconds to truly have an edge. Also this would take any fraction of emotion out of the trade. If anyone does not have access to such tools then it is very difficult to even compete in such an arena.

 

I have invested in Bitcoin and Ether via XBT Trackers in both SEK and EUR currencies and my strategy is to hold as I believe there is more upside. I don't even believe we have even seen half of the bubble yet. There are so many that do not know what Bitcoin is or have ever heard of Blockchain. There are so many that do not have any sort of position or investment in either. Therefore if Bitcoin is in a bubble and I am not suggesting it is as this can be debated from both perspectives, then I would say it is only the start of the bubble or at best half way through the bubble. We are certainly no where near the end of the bubble.

 

I will not wish anyone the best of luck who is even attempting to trade Bitcoin without the above tools. Luck and hope should not be part of your trading / investment strategy. You must have a specific trading plan for Bitcoin which you are able to execute. You must have specific rules which you will follow. Extreme discipline is required and anything less will lead to overall failure in my opinion. 

Share this post


Link to post

Yes indeed, but look at that exquisite TA chart action (as this thread has shown) over the last month. Volatile as it is but it is still conforming to predefined basic trendlines, support and resistance and Fibonacci levels time and time again. Practically impossible to actually trade unless via an exchange and even then fraught with difficulties it is chart action heaven that has not been seen for generations and won't be seen again for generations on this scale.   

Share this post


Link to post

I agree. 

 

It would be interesting to know for all those people looking to open positions on Bitcoin, what their trading strategy and plan is?

 

Do they actually have one?

 

Do they know at what price they are going to exit even before they enter their trade?

 

How are they going to determine their stop loss level? This is the most difficult aspect I personally have found trading Bitcoin. If you set your stop loss too tight then you will get stopped out very frequently and quickly. If you leave it too wide then your losses could increase to uncomfortable levels. Also add not being able to open position in Bitcoin when you want to with IG just adds to the difficulty. Especially when a short term breakout has been identified, etc. 

 

This was one of the main reasons why I switched from trading Bitcoin on IG to investing in Bitcoin via XBT Tracker products.

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin likely to gap down on IG market open 9 pm, BitMEX BTCUSD Futures currently around 13200. GDAX spot currently has Bitcoin at 13210.

 

BTCUSD has been keeping faith with Fib retracement levels from the big move up from 12/11/17 to 17/12/17, particularly 23.6%, 50% and 61.8%.

50% is at 12620. See 4 hour chart at holiday close bottom of page.

 

xma3.PNG

 

 

xma1.PNGxma2.png

Share this post


Link to post

That is interesting Caseynotes. Let's see if Bitcoin behaves as you think it is likely to.

 

I think that there will be an initial drop before it starts going up overnight and into the morning. However the current short term trend is bearish so there may be 24 hours of pressure on the price downwards before any day of gains on Bitcoin. However, lets see. 

 

What I do expect is Bitcoin to surpass $20,000.00 if ETF Futures get approved, institutional investment money comes flooding into Bitcoin then I think there is still plenty of upside left. Also future improvements, reductions in transaction costs, improvement in sentiment will all play their part. 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin gapped on market open and normally the gap would get filled but bitcoin has never behaved normally and so gaps routinely don't get filled for days or weeks after if ever (unfinished auction). Possible retest of the 50% Fib more likely before a retest of the 38.2% level?

 

1 hour chart.

 

BTCUSDH10101.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin makes a break for it in an attempt to capture the 23.6 Fib and next resistance level having broken up through 14188 (prior resistance and  38.2 Fib and down trendline) on high volume.

 

BTCUSDH10202.png

Share this post


Link to post

I think both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash are looking tired. I still think the long term trend is firmly on track for Bitcoin and I fully expect on positive news for Bitcoin to re-attempt $20,000.00. However, for now the smart money is being moved into Ripple, Ether and Stellar. 

 

I wish I could have spread bet with with leverage via IG's platform Ripple, Stellar and IOTA over the past few weeks, now and tomorrow onwards. 

Share this post


Link to post

For me Bitcoin need to cross and stay above the $16142 level. This will be bullish for Bitcoin. Anything else and there could be a very super slow downtrend in play which is extremely unusual for Bitcoin as the media expects a big crash for Bitcoin. 

 

It would not surprise me if Bitcoin was to crash that it does so very slowly which would be the opposite of what the media is suggesting. However I am still positive for Bitcoin in 2018 but lets see.

Share this post


Link to post

Has consolidated in a tight (for bitcoin) range, not really surprised that the recent surge up was only off the back of a WSJ news report (flighty) but there you go. The volume is back to pre-holiday highs and the new range is well marked. Waiting for a break up to retest the 23.6% Fib (which is also the 61.8% Fib for the move down) or back down to the 50%.

 

BTCUSDH40301.png

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Breaks up out of it's range of the last few days, next resistance level is 16426.

 

 

BTCUSD(£)H10501.png

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

The past few weeks has given people the chance to get long on bitcoin which eventually will hit 20000 and then onwards. Any dips or move down should open a chance for bitcoin to not be 'unlongable' which will appeal to mid and long term investors. I don't think bitcoin will go into a downtrend nor will it crash. But once it starts moving it'll be difficult to get on due to it being unlongable.

 

Day trading bitcoin is difficult due to volatility and personally i feel due to the spreads shouldnt be done. Buy and hold is a better strategy.

Share this post


Link to post

Situation,

 

I agree with your sentiments.

 

I think Bitcoin will try and have another go at $20,000. My target for Bitcoin is $1 trillion market cap which means a price of around $48,000. Yes, there will be plenty of large corrections and drops along the way but that is my price target for Bitcoin.

 

I am basing this on the attempt that Bitcoin is trying to become a digital store of value, safe haven asset like Gold. The virtual currency act has accepted that Bitcoin is an asset.

 

I am basing it on limited supply of 21 million Bitcoins ever. As long as there is demand to physically acquire Bitcoin then the price will continue to increase as long as the long term holders do not start selling. The futures market is a bit of a red herring in my opinion and I am not sure how much of an influence it really has on the Bitcoin price.

 

I am basing it on ETF's around the corner giving more people access to investing in Bitcoin.

 

I am basing it on large amounts of institutional money still to come into Bitcoin.

 

Ether is trying to consolidate around the $1,000 mark which is extremely encouraging. I think if the right news is announced during 2018 then Ether could double from here and look towards $2000. The Enterprise Ethereum Alliance will play an important role and the quality of companies looking at using the Ethereum platform leads me to anticipate such a price.

Share this post


Link to post

What do you think will happen after all the bitcoin are mined?

 

I agree with you that it will be in demand until then but I wonder if the original investors will then sell their investments causing large price corrections.

 

Also I reckon banks might even start using the blockchain technology. Will we even need bitcoin then??

 

Would be interested to hear some views.

Share this post


Link to post

I do not know what will happen once all the Bitcoin are mined. The price could drop due to profit taking or selling. However, it could just as easily be transferred to the next generation to keep as a store of value and wealth preservation if the price does not drop and is maintained. 

 

Bitcoin will be the origin point. The future cryptocurrencies that make it may be pegged to Bitcoin's price. I cannot see banks using Bitcoin. I see Bitcoin more as a store of value and a way to maintain digital wealth in the future. However it will be easier to use a way to pay for things than gold ever was or is. However, I think cryptocurrencies will evolve and in the future we may get one that is used all over the world. I do not think that will be Bitcoin.

Share this post


Link to post

Having a bad day, can't find support as it heads down to the trendline of the recent move up off the December low.

 

 

BTCUSD(£)H10801.png

Share this post


Link to post


Situation wrote:

What do you think will happen after all the bitcoin are mined?

 

I agree with you that it will be in demand until then but I wonder if the original investors will then sell their investments causing large price corrections.

 

Also I reckon banks might even start using the blockchain technology. Will we even need bitcoin then??

 

Would be interested to hear some views.

 

 

Don't forget that we all (probably) won't see the last bitcoin mined in 2140, however the supply curve shows we'll hopefully all see the time when supply is significantly diminished. Check out the charts below ...

 

2018-01-08 16_04_28-Controlled_supply-supply_over_block_height.png (1525×779).png

 

2018-01-08 16_04_46-Controlled supply - Bitcoin Wiki.png

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin looks to be making it's third assault on 12772. A break there will put it into a very ragged and unconvincing support zone on the larger time frame charts.

 

BTCUSD(£)H11201.pngBTCUSD(£)H41201.png

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin broke below the 50 day SMA on 11th January 2018 and if you look then it has been struggling to climb above it.

 

What is positive for Bitcoin in my opinion is that it managed to hold on to the critical support level between the trend line of the symmetrical triangle and the neckline of the head an shoulders pattern.

 

I am actually encouraged that Bitcoin is still trading at time of writing around the $14000 levels. There is a lot of negativity in the media about Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies in general. This may be due to a lack of knowledge and understanding of what is currently happening. I see the current prices as very positive going forwards. 

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin has entered a very important support zone that needs to hold or we are likely to revisit the low of 10723.

 

 

BTCUSD(£)H41601.png

Share this post


Link to post

Caseynotes, as you can imagine I have been very busy today and inundated with messages.

 

Bitcoin hit $10998.20 today. I think we are seeing the big correction that the market has been expecting. It could even go below $10,000 on a short term basis before the next leg up. This for me is an extremely healthy sign. I am still bullish Bitcoin for 2018 but I think Ether will perform better.

 

This was bound to happen. I would rather get it out of the way early on in 2018 before potentially a monster move in both Bitcoin and Ether.

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin is trading around the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level from mid November rally to mid December all time high. This is around the $11230 level as shown by the chart. If Bitcoin can stay around these levels or thereabouts then this will be a positive signal.

 

 Bitcoin (USD)_20180116_20.34.png

Share this post


Link to post

So bitcoin did indeed revisit 10723, now struggling to hang on to this key support level, the battle here should be interesting and could go either way. 

 

BTCUSD(£)H41701.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • IG ISA Season

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      6,421
    • Total Posts
      28,556
    • Total Members
      37,555
    Newest Member
    MaxwellIG
    Joined 25/03/19 21:20
  • Our picks

    • APAC brief 26 Mar
      Markets trade-off Friday overhang: Markets traded in something of a vacuum Monday. The themes driving price action were more-or-less those that had determined activity to end last week. The effects of this were pronounced in the Asian session, but much less so in Europe and North America. It stands to reason: Asian markets were still to digest Friday night’s abysmal European PMI figures. That data’s impact is still rippling through the market. Anxieties about global growth and the likelihood for a global recession is the topic of the day. But the material losses stemming from these concerns, though broad-based, have been limited overnight. Wall Street is down but bouncing; European stocks were down; while futures contracts for Asian markets are mixed.

      Risk-off generally prevails: Fear is demonstrably higher. On balance, safety was generally sought on Monday. In something of a bittersweet development, the VIX has pulled of its lows, to trade above 16, as traders reprice volatility and risk. In the broader G10 currency complex, the Yen has been led the pack, though its rally has steadied, and it is currently shuffling around the 110-handle. Investment grade credit spreads have widened notably, as speculation about slower growth has fanned-fear regarding the massive US corporate debt burden. And finally, the overnight-drop in the US Dollar, combined with the ubiquitous disappearance of safe-yielding assets the world-over, has pushed gold prices to $US1322 per ounce.
      • 0 replies
×
×