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Is Bitcoin currently in a bearish or bullish state?


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This is the question we keep seeing on the internet. So, here is my take on this. I believe Bitcoin is currently in a significant bearish state. This might sound surprising given its widespread popularity, but when you delve into essential data points, it appears that some of the optimism surrounding its future is unravelling


To put this in perspective, if we examine Bitcoin's history, we'd expect periods of surges followed by normalization, allowing for sustainable long-term growth. However, the reality is different. Looking at monthly trading activity data from the beginning of 2018, it's evident that trading activity for Bitcoin has been on a year-over-year decline for at least five years.


For instance, in September of this year, Bitcoin's trading activity was 68.6% lower compared to the same month the previous year. Over the past two years, it's decreased by a more moderate 54.8%. But when compared to three years ago, it's down by 68.9%, and when compared to five years ago, it has plummeted by a staggering 86.1%. The overall trend is unmistakable: trading activity is steadily diminishing. Bitcoin's price relies heavily on the optimism of traders, and it's important to acknowledge these trends. This is What Some Say!

However, I believe that what drives the price of Bitcoin is mostly Sentiments. If we believe it or not, our sentiment is what pushes Bitcoin price and not our technicals. Technical only comes in when we need to set a range where our next buy or sell would be.

I see some take where most people use different Strategy to accumulate Bitcoin at this present bearish state like the most famous strategy DCA and Dual Investment (I do talk about this both because they align together) and some use Smart Trend while a good amount just trade it on Futures regardless

Everybody does different things in anticipating the nearest future Bitcoin Surge but how long can everyone wait for that? This is another question we need to ask ourselves. I know most people do say next year would be fundamentally positive for Bitcoin. But what if the price gets manipulated just as this month "Uptober" is playing?

So tell me, do you think we are in a bear market or this is just a manipulation to get some people discouraged in Bitcoin

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Well, the price action of BTC is just within the expected at this point in the year when it has been historically favourable for it. However all eyes are now on what happens with the multitude of spot etf application on the table of SEC in the coming days, weeks or months because that's what will eventually trigger the bull.

But for now keep your fiat closer to you and wage in when your TA tells you to.

Glad you also talk about some other alternative on some exchanges (including the one you mentioned) because a proper investment needs diversification.

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1 hour ago, BashJasper said:

Well, the price action of BTC is just within the expected at this point in the year when it has been historically favourable for it. However all eyes are now on what happens with the multitude of spot etf application on the table of SEC in the coming days, weeks or months because that's what will eventually trigger the bull.

But for now keep your fiat closer to you and wage in when your TA tells you to.

Glad you also talk about some other alternative on some exchanges (including the one you mentioned) because a proper investment needs diversification.

On the contrary, the ETF might not have significant impact on BTC and will think post halving could be what we should be prepping for atm. So planning a DCA should be good plan particularly on a good exchange cos amidst recent security hack, one has to do the due diligence before making the right choice of an exchange to trade.

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On 14/10/2023 at 18:11, blazely said:

So tell me, do you think we are in a bear market or this is just a manipulation to get some people discouraged in Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Latest: BTC/USD Chart Mixed as 200-day SMA Stands Firm
Oct 12, 2023 1:37 PM +02:00

Nick Cawley,
DailyFX  Senior Strategist

Bitcoin Trading | Trade Bitcoin On Leverage Without a Digital Wallet | IG  UK | IG Ireland
Bitcoin (BTC) Prices, Charts, and Analysis:

  • Have global interest rates peaked?
  • Bitcoin is unable to break the 200-day simple moving average.

Bitcoin is trapped in a wide $25k - $32k range and is finding it difficult to make a concerted attempt at either support or resistance. The backdrop for the cryptocurrency market should be mildly positive with a raft of spot BTC and ETH ETFs expected shortly, while global interest rates are seen at, or very close to, their peaks. The latest raft of Fed speak has been dovish with a spread of FOMC members suggesting that with further tightening expected from previous rate hikes, inflation will continue to fall, easing the pressure on the US central bank to tighten monetary policy further. Traditional risk markets have pushed ahead in the past week, while the VIX – the ‘fear barometer’ - is currently printing its sixth red candle in a row.

What is the VIX?

VIX Daily Price Chart

image1.png

 

The latest US inflation report will be released later in today’s session and any deviation from expectations – core y/y @4.1% and headline y/y @3.6% - may add a dose of volatility into the market.

A look at the daily chart shows the spot BTC price is struggling to break the 200-day simple moving average. BTC is now pressing down on the 50-dsma that lines up with a prior level of note around the $26.5k area. Below here there is a cluster of old highs and lows down to $25k. These should stem any further sell-off. For Bitcoin to rally back to $32k resistance, the 200-dsma at $28k needs to be broken convincingly.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Price Chart – October 12, 2023

image2.png

Charts by TradingView

Would like to hear other views from the community is Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?

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18 hours ago, Maxicreed01 said:

On the contrary, the ETF might not have significant impact on BTC and will think post halving could be what we should be prepping for atm. So planning a DCA should be good plan particularly on a good exchange cos amidst the recent security hack, one has to do the due diligence before making the right choice of an exchange to trade.

BTC price trend today after Cointelgraph tweet has proven that ETF approval could have a significant impact. Is best advisable to prepare for a possible bull run anytime soon by DCA 

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4 hours ago, Captainsaudi said:

BTC price trend today after Cointelgraph tweet has proven that ETF approval could have a significant impact. Is best advisable to prepare for a possible bull run anytime soon by DCA 

Yeah, it was an amazing moment for me earlier today too cos I had earlier copied an elite trader's open long position on Bitget with the hope we could see a reversal and the obvious happened. Tho, it was in a flash largely due to the manipulated news but was able take profit at $29403

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