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Does Bitcoin ETF approval signals the Bull-run?


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With US SEC set to approve spot Bitcoin ETF applications from financial giants like Blackrock, Fidelity, Greyscale etc., trillions is expected to flow into this industry and this has sparked mixed feeling among analyst. Gabor Gurbacs, a director at VanEck, recently agreed that while a spot ETF will create "trillions in value" he advised people not to “overestimate the initial impact of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs”, Some claim that the approval will require ETF issuers to purchase tens of billions dollars of bitcoin to satisfy the institutional demand, leading to a radical shift in the supply and demand dynamics. 

With so many Bitcoin whales already holding their coin in their personal wallet signals that they're less inclined to sell which could increase scarcity and impact positively on price. Although, CryptoQuant and QCP Capital suggest that BTC will dip as low as $32,000 due to the amount of unrealized profits in the market and sell the news scenario demand for the ETFs.


We have witness BTC rally over 61% since October due to the expectation of SEC approval of one or more of the spot ETF applications. This expectations keep growing stronger and with final BTC ETF application filling being posted by major US exchanges, many analyst are confident that SEC will approve the first US spot Bitcoin ETF soon. 


Recently, Bitget launched an event to encourage users to trade BTC as we near spot ETF approval, this confirm the impact of the ETF approval and the readiness of exchanges but does this approval signals the bull-run? What do you expect after the approval?

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I think while the probability of the approval is around 70%, one must not be over-excited and carried away with the news as there can be twist and turns which could further delay the approval or the rejection in totality which of course will have negative impact in the price action of all crypto. It's good to see that exchanges are also carrying out campaigns and events for users perhaps to increase the trading volume of BTC to $1trillion before March. However, I will advise that traders and investors diversify and look into some products like sharkfin, smart trend and dual investment so help save their portfolio incase of any eventualities

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A lot have been said about the effect of the approval of a BTC spot ETF on the crypto market but I'll rather be on the side of caution because I believe the market might be largely influenced by the activities of whales during these times. If the approval brings in massive adoption and huge investment instantly, then I'm optimistic the bull run is certainly on the cards. For exchanges though, I fear that inly few of them might have the capacity to handle the volume of trade that comes with this approval. I know exchanges like coinbase, bitget and binance might be well positioned for the huge trading volume but can be really sure for others though.

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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Pumping Higher as SEC ETF Deadline Nears
Jan 8, 2024 5:03 PM | Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

 

BITCOIN (BTC) PRICES, CHARTS, AND ANALYSIS:

  • Bitcoin pressing against $45k.
  • Is an ETF approval a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ event?

 

Bitcoin ETF fever is pushing the price of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization back to highs last seen in April 2022. At least 10 companies have handed in amended and updated Bitcoin ETF applications and are waiting to hear from the SEC. The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF will be the first exchange-traded fund ruled on by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC has until January 10th to approve or reject this ETF and the thinking is that if this application is approved, then the other 10 or so applications will also be approved to prevent any first-mover advantage.

The latest Bitcoin rally is being driven by reports that these applicants are all posting their ETF fee structures with two firms announcing 0% fees for the first six months. A number of these ETF applicants have also launched Bitcoin commercials over the last 10 days, adding fuel to the fire that the SEC will approve a physically-backed Bitcoin ETF this week. The near 10% sell-off candle on January 3rd was prompted by a story that these spot ETFs would not be approved this week, highlighting the current volatility in the cryptocurrency space. There is also a growing feeling in the market that an SEC approval would be a ‘buy the rumor/sell the fact’ event, especially after Bitcoin’s strong run-up over the past months. As always, the cryptocurrency space remains highly volatile and prone to wild swings on rumors as well as facts.

Bitcoin (BTC) Slumps on ETF Rejection Rumor, All Eyes on the SEC

From a technical outlook, the daily chart remains positive. BTC/USD remains above all three simple moving averages and higher highs and higher lows can be seen on the chart since mid-September. A break above the January 2nd high at $45.88k would leave $48.19k vulnerable before $52k comes into play. To the downside, $43k is initial support while $38k should hold if the market sells off sharply.

BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART

image.png

Charts via TradingView

What is your view on Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?

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On 07/01/2024 at 09:21, Captainsaudi said:

With US SEC set to approve spot Bitcoin ETF applications from financial giants like Blackrock, Fidelity, Greyscale etc., trillions is expected to flow into this industry and this has sparked mixed feeling among analyst. Gabor Gurbacs, a director at VanEck, recently agreed that while a spot ETF will create "trillions in value" he advised people not to “overestimate the initial impact of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs”, Some claim that the approval will require ETF issuers to purchase tens of billions dollars of bitcoin to satisfy the institutional demand, leading to a radical shift in the supply and demand dynamics. 

With so many Bitcoin whales already holding their coin in their personal wallet signals that they're less inclined to sell which could increase scarcity and impact positively on price. Although, CryptoQuant and QCP Capital suggest that BTC will dip as low as $32,000 due to the amount of unrealized profits in the market and sell the news scenario demand for the ETFs.


We have witness BTC rally over 61% since October due to the expectation of SEC approval of one or more of the spot ETF applications. This expectations keep growing stronger and with final BTC ETF application filling being posted by major US exchanges, many analyst are confident that SEC will approve the first US spot Bitcoin ETF soon. 


Recently, Bitget launched an event to encourage users to trade BTC as we near spot ETF approval, this confirm the impact of the ETF approval and the readiness of exchanges but does this approval signals the bull-run? What do you expect after the approval?

Bitcoin ETFs will have to rapidly accumulate a lot of assets in order to justify the kind of price appreciation we've seen over the past year, this will bring more liquidity in the market and also encourage other investors to join which will increase the buying pressure.

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On 07/01/2024 at 13:40, Wakanda said:

I think while the probability of the approval is around 70%, one must not be over-excited and carried away with the news as there can be twist and turns which could further delay the approval or the rejection in totality which of course will have negative impact in the price action of all crypto. It's good to see that exchanges are also carrying out campaigns and events for users perhaps to increase the trading volume of BTC to $1trillion before March. However, I will advise that traders and investors diversify and look into some products like sharkfin, smart trend and dual investment so help save their portfolio incase of any eventualities

Good suggestion especially as this investment strategy helps you to navigate the current volatility rate in the industry. Some of the product also guarantees the principal which makes it a good way to save. 

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On 07/01/2024 at 23:02, BashJasper said:

A lot have been said about the effect of the approval of a BTC spot ETF on the crypto market but I'll rather be on the side of caution because I believe the market might be largely influenced by the activities of whales during these times. If the approval brings in massive adoption and huge investment instantly, then I'm optimistic the bull run is certainly on the cards. For exchanges though, I fear that inly few of them might have the capacity to handle the volume of trade that comes with this approval. I know exchanges like coinbase, bitget and binance might be well positioned for the huge trading volume but can be really sure for others though.

Well, is obvious that the market is controlled by the whales so anything can happen. Thou is obvious that the approval could have high impact on the market. I will also agree that Coinbase, Bitget, and Binance are positioned for the outcome of the ETF approval due to their recently huge investment in their ecosystem and acquisition of wallet

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22 hours ago, XTRAVAGANZA said:

Then i guess its a good thing i have accounts with Bitget and Binance, though i trade more on the former cos of their low fees while i use the latter for P2P cos of the high P2P volumes.

Then I suggest you check your eligibility for the event so you can participate since it is a passive income. 

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