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Trend Followers may be interested in Orange Juice

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Albeit speculative, trend followers, may be interested in watching Orange Juice in the month of October 2017.

 

A juice (with fresh fruit of course) a day keeps the doctor away!

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One of the best shorting opportunities over the past 12 months has been Orange Juice yet no one within the IG Community seems to be discussing it. 

I am going to include the 'daily' chart below for you all to see. For Trend Followers it does not matter whether the price is trending upwards or downwards. It is about trying to profit from the price movement.

92060424_NYOrangeJuice_20190502_05_30.png.a85fed72121508bd1e1d743de7de6f95.png

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Orange Juice is down over 1082 points at the time of writing. It is already in a strong bearish downtrend as the 'daily' will nicely highlights. 

 

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This is interesting.

My interpretation of the COT data would suggest a continuation of this downward trend, as would a few technical indicators. 

I'm not too sure about the markets seasonal patterns or fundamentals, but after 5 minutes on Google found the following from a February US Department of Agriculture Citrus markets report;

Global orange production for 2018/19 is forecast to expand 4.2 million metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 51.8 million as favorable weather leads to larger crops in Brazil and the United States.

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On 02/05/2019 at 05:30, TrendFollower said:
One of the best shorting opportunities over the past 12 months has been Orange Juice yet no one within the IG Community seems to be discussing it. 

I am going to include the 'daily' chart below for you all to see. For Trend Followers it does not matter whether the price is trending upwards or downwards. It is about trying to profit from the price movement.

92060424_NYOrangeJuice_20190502_05_30.png.a85fed72121508bd1e1d743de7de6f95.png

@TrendFollower  Your last post on this trend was October 5th  2017. Given you spotted this trend back then, I guess the question is why have you have not been talking about it? 

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Posted (edited)

@FOXY,

I have but in different threads.

Also I work full time for a living!

I am an active contributor to the IG Community but there really is only so much I can post. 

You will find my posts on Orange Juice on other threads.

I also post actively on other Commodities and Cryptocurrencies. It is all about time!

Edited by TrendFollower
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Might be a bit late to catch this trend, it has come a long way. I would wait until the hurricane season starts stateside and if there looks to be something big on the way then go long.

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@draa46,

If you look at the 'Weekly' and the 'Monthly' charts then you will see that there could be further downside. 

185387494_NYOrangeJuice_20190506_16_56.png.d6790af72409bcb61104e104f31fdcc3.png

806971731_NYOrangeJuice_20190506_16.56-2.png.ead81cecc5835c43225ddabb4b8051da.png

As you can see from both charts the potential is there for further downward movement. If it keeps on making new lows then this is what a Trend Follower wants to see from a 'Short' trade. 

Ideal weather conditions in the state of Florida continues to accelerate harvest and if you add supplies that we haven't seen in several years so there could be more downside than one expects. The key will be demand / supply and right now along with the weather conditions. For those holding short positions I would recommend continuing to hold until there is a clear trend reversal to the 'Long' side. 

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In my opinion the fundamentals do seem to explain the recent price action, and point to lower prices.

However I would personally be wary - lower prices increase the likelihood of the US stepping in with a tariff on Brazilian imports to protect domestic producers.

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A break below $9000 is on the cards unless there is some positive news or any positive drivers to support an increase in Orange Juice prices.

Below $9000 seems inevitable based on the current strength of the trend and bearishness of the charts. 

 

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Orange Juice seems to have found some support around the 10100 price level. It seems to be going through a consolidation period after a long downward move. 

If one begins to monitor the price action for Orange Juice then one will be able to identify any potential breakout. For anyone still short I would suggest liquidating the position as that capital can be used elsewhere whilst Orange Juice makes up its mind on future direction. 

919502820_NYOrangeJuice_20190802_10_12.thumb.png.f9ae40e86e442b44f69fc4f4642ebfe9.png

 

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