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DAX (Germany 30)


Caseynotes

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Guest oilfxpro

Casey 

 

This is uptrend, so buy signal?

 

You don't buy in a uptrend and don't buy in a down trend.I need a clear foresight signal when to trade!

 

dax uptrend.jpg

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Are you seriously trying to trade the dax on a 4 hour chart? The 1 hour and higher show the uptrend established on Wednesday so I know the direction of trade and there have been many opportunities on the smaller time frame since. 

 

The 5 min shows how well the 100 bar MA has acted as support for 5 days. When price repeatedly demonstrates it is respecting a flat level or dynamic level (MA) then use that level. Even a tight stop loss was never troubled on any entry on a retest of the 100 bar MA since Wednesday afternoon (03/01/18).

 

But this morning produced a big punch down through the 100 and though it did recover the price action since the UK open at 8 am showed that the sellers meant business. 

 

GER30(£)M50801.png

 

 

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Best of luck to you, many would consider intraday trading the 4 hour chart would present difficulties as you only have 2 bars to work with. Looking at the 1 hour and 5 min show that price action this morning had turned very confused after having respected the 5 min 100ma for 5 consecutive days. I suspect that would be very difficult to see on one 4 hour bar. 

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Guest oilfxpro

Casey

 

You just admitted p/a reading fails

 

The way I trader is according to Mark Douglas psychology.

 

The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading:

1. Anything can happen.


2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.


3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of
 

variables that define an edge.


4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing
 

happening over another.


5. Every moment in the market is unique.

 

https://profitabletraders.wordpress.com/

 

!learning ta.gif

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Your logic is difficult to follow, I've shown, since Wednesday, how reading PA is successful.

 

Anything can happen but anticipate what is more likely.

 

You don't need to know what will happen next because you know any trade has a 50/50 chance of success but an edge gives a higher probability over a number of trades.

 

Every moment is unique but patterns can reoccur.

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Patterns and levels can only have a probability of containing price. The best thing to do is to look at a number of time frames and see which best reflects what the majority of big traders see and what they are using. What they use is basic. Trendlines, channels, moving averages S & R levels, Fib levels. Then just copy/follow what they do on the best fit chart.

 

Very early on Wed afternoon it was clear the 5 min chart and 100 ma were important and they stayed being important for 5 days. This morning the trend broke down on the 5 min chart and that was important too.

 

 

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Guest oilfxpro

Casey

 

Can you make your analysis more complex?Make it so complicated, that the brain freezes in real time, that it can not execute the set up.

 

https://profitabletraders.wordpress.com/k-i-s-s-keep-trading-simple-stupid/

 

K I S S KEEP TRADING SIMPLE STUPID

 

KISS is an acronym for "Keep it simplestupid" as a design principle noted by the U.S. Navy in 1960. The KISS principle states that most systems work best if they are kept simple rather than made complicated; therefore simplicity should be a key goal in design and unnecessary complexity should be avoided.

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The laughable thing about Trollboy and his fake strategy is that even after 2 years he still hasn't figured out that he needs to change it with every change in market cycle hence he is now on version 5. A some stage he will have gone full circle and return the the original failed system and still be on a £1000 account. But carry on, I'm sure that 10 million demo account makes it seem all worth while.

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Guest oilfxpro

Your analysis on 3 rd January  is the blind leading the blind.

 

If you can listen to the above statement , I will agree there is no psychology involved in trading.

 

casey wu.jpga

 

 

caey gig.gif

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On the 3rd I wrote " it doesn't matter which way it breaks but when it does it should hopefully lead to a few days at least of trending".

 

Price broke up and trended for the next 5 days.

 

The level of importance that broke and precipitated the move was, as I was documenting during the day, the break of the 100ma on both the daily and hourly chart. That was why I started by saying it was an important day for the dax (morning of the 3rd).

 

The break lead to a 450 tick move. 

 

We have already ascertained long ago you don't understand TA and to cover that deficiency you just pretend it is of no value.

When someone says something doesn't work what they really mean is that they can't make it work. 

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Guest oilfxpro

https://community.ig.com/t5/General-Trading-Strategy/35-profit-after-restart-3-5-realistically/m-p/19000#M1042

 

 

I can post my trade in advance , without fear and BS, there is no need for all this t/a singing.You can clearly see the direction on my trade .Why does anyone want to read an analysis from someone who can not trade his own analysis?

 

Just post your trades, but you have no confidence in your own analysis, to place your own trades using it.If you had confidence in your own analysis,  you would post your trades.

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See dax moving sideways for the 2nd day now, clearly in a tight range. Trying to pick up a few tick here and there with minimal bet size entries on a tiny account is not trading but coin tossing for a few quid win or lose, not only will it will not make you a living but it is guaranteed to keep your account tiny. Classic playing at the casino behaviour. If you are risking real money you will be waiting for the next range expansion phase to transpire as it always will, and that will give many opportunities to catch a lift to a real profit.

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Guest oilfxpro

Casey my demo account has £10 m, so I am using real money.At least you provide the site with entertainment and lulz with this comical act.

 

If you understand real trading, every trade must be same size,  

 

Mark Douglas makes a very good point here. How many times have you seen the perfect set up, and entered thinking “it’s a perfect setup, it’s definitely going to work out”.You’ve done all your market analysis and everything is pointing in your favor, it’s a going to be a definite win!You bet your house or 25% of your account.What happens next?The trade doesn’t work out and you’re absolutely gutted. You feel like you’ve been betrayed by the market and the ‘tragedy’ has eaten part of your soul away.

 

https://www.theforexguy.com/mark-douglas-trading-psychology/

 

Five fundamental truths:
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that
define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening
over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.

 

Keep up the lulz

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You project your own psych issues on to everyone else, let me explain why.

 

You can't do TA therefore TA can't work, when you see someone doing TA successfully you are compelled to attack to preserve your delusion. Everyone must do my 'Set and Forget Options Strategy' (SFOS).

 

You can't trendfollow therefore trendfollowing can't work, when you see some successfully trendfollowing you are compelled to attack, everyone must do my SFOS.

 

You can't do Price Action therefore PA can't work, when you see PA done successfully you attack. Only my SFOS can work.

 

You can't handle the psych issues involved in trading, therefore no can, so everyone must do my SFOS.

 

Having backed yourself into the SFOS corner it can now never fail which is why it is always successful, when I suggested even the first incarnation of 2 years ago must have failed you assured me it didn't.

 

1/ People who run successful strategies Do Not change them every month.

2/ People who run successful strategies do not still have a minimal account size after 6 months let alone 2 years. 

 

PS, "If you understand real trading, every trade must be same size"  is absolute nonsense. As for the 5 truths, I have already answered that and I get bored repeating myself, it's a shame you don't.

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Guest oilfxpro

I never said trend following can't work , it fails more times than it works.Same applies to price action and technical anylysis.All work about 30 % of the time.

 

Here is my secret :I use highly selective subjective  combination of price action, technical analysis , trend trading , options  set and forget and a psychologically correct method.This is why I can call my trades in advance, have the confidence to call my trades in advance.You are too scared to call trades in advance , because we know what is going to happen!

 

:smileylol::smileylol:

 

My other account I don't show to Noobs (new traders), just in case anyone copies the larger trades and gets greedy. We want new traders not to get greedy.They should learn patience.My thread can influence them..

 

You carry this analysis guru mantle and lead people to trade city site , they sell price action courses for $450.If this all worked, these gurus would be billionaires, with a simple 30 pips a week.They are not.

 

A trader can earn a 50 ticks consistently a week from trading , a trader can become a billionaire in 12 years.Compound profits on a weekly basis ,  a low risk method with low draw downs of less than 200 pips , and maximum 30 ticks risked per trade.On three lots risk is 90 pips or $900 per trade on a $100,000 account.

3 positions * 50 ticks a week  * 1 lot , compound it on a weekly basis.

 

http://profitabletrading1.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/how-to-become-billionaire-from-trading.html

 

blindo.gif

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I added an edit to my post as I forgot to add the last and most important one. 'Can't handle the psych issues involved with trading therefore no one can, must do my SFOS'.

 

When you say something fails 70% of the time you are saying it fails for you and others who have not yet learnt how to make it work.

 

And ... of course, now it's the 'my secret account' ploy' Laughable.

 

Stop worrying about trying to make a 'billion in 12 years' concentrate instead trying to increase your account size up off minimal.

 

The time you spend trolling would be better spent learning.

The time you spend trawling public forums to re-post questionable content on this one would be better spent learning.

 

 

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Guest oilfxpro

How come you act and sound like a teacher on forums?You would be on your yachts.If all you said is true, you would not be peddling your your wisdom.

 

Now start this thing about giving back to community, charity and helping others.

 

 

yach  g s.jpga

yacjts.jpga

tradecity price action course.gif

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I don't have anything to prove as I'm not the one making spurious claims. All I have been doing is posting charts that I think have potential for the next move.

 

You on the other hand come onto the forum making these questionable claims then disappear after a few months, then come back with a changed system months later but the making the same claims all over again. Those new to the forum should be aware you have 'form'.

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