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Consolidation, Manipulation, Breakout, Manipulation


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Ahh the joys of trading WTI. The past few days have been interesting. Prices have risen 3%+ since Monday 17th June. The movement is principally price manipulation and speculation. It sometimes happens when traders take time off for a conference, or even taking a few days off for Juneteeth. The price has moved on very LOW volumes. The fundamentals of the oil market are being ignored, as hey who needs fundamentals when a rumour will do? Price action in of itself is a good thing, right? Unfortunately, the price of Oil is dictated by fund managers, a few trading houses (Glencore, Gunvor et al), in house proprietary trading from Oil companies themselves and countries and companies selling their Oil on the open market. Oh and a few thousand speculators, trading on leverage. Currently the market is being moved by speculation and vested interests(proprietary trading companies). The fundamentals are that there is enough oil. Demand is slowing down long-term, vehicles are more efficient and current demand is not as strong as envisaged, due to the state of the real economy. There is plentiful storage. Dare I even say, were certain large oil producers (Libya, Iran, Venezuela) allowed to  modernise and produce as much as they are able, the price of oil would be very much lower than currently. But no one wants that, heaven forfend! But there is a Cartel called Opec and their friends (ish) like Russia who conspire to maintain the high cost of oil. It's understandable. Looking after themselves is the main motivator. And fairness is neither an equitable nor desirable word in the Oil business. After all, it is a business based wholly on exploitation. 

I digress, back to today and the price of Oil. Very low volumes and big price action strikes me as dubious. It's happened before. Doubtless will again.

Be aware prices can come down as well as up, without provocation or logic.

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