Honest Guv, nothings expensive here it all a bargain..

[786Trader]

Frankly, it's a relief to know that Nvidia is more valuable than the entire German stock exchange. Yes, there is room for it to grow and it's banking on automation to help it do so, but is it really worth all of German equities? Probably not. It's a company that manufactures chips, like Intel or AMD or Huawei or Qualcomm. It's a 2024 version of Cisco systems. The price is, like most on the Nasdaq, speculative. It's trading at a p/e of 62. Sixty two.  AI has been a real boon to the NASDAQ, though actually in real world use cases it's been a bit less than impressive. From personal experience anyway. More hype than substance. Chat GPT being especially disappointing and is getting dumber the longer it is being gatekept and limited. However, having lived through the original dot com bubble, nothing should surprise where imaginative valuations are concerned. This time appears similar. A seeming relentless unstoppable race into price discovery. World use cases that seem to negate the need for people to do any work (so who's going to pay for whatever services are being offered?) 

     Sure AI has and indeed will be integral to our future. But we could be hyper-focusing ourselves into a compromising dilemma on the use case for actual humans, for example. Is Apple worth the 2 trillion bucks the stock price says it is, now it is using ChatGPT AI in it's new devices? Again I return to my use case examples with Chat GPT where it regularly tells me it can't help. Ok, I can have existential debates with Claude from Anthropic about the evolution of AI. But can it help with strategy trading Gold, for example? There it becomes resolutely mute. Can it or will it create software (EA's) for MT4/5 platforms based on predetermined strategy or confluence of strategies? Or integrate strategy for the purpose of gaming out possibilities? That would be a Nope.  Negatory. No can do. Long way to go then. Long way. The prices however, would indicate all of this and virtual paradise are just around the next corner. Unless, aggressive war/defence AI decides in a pique of frustration that human beings are beastly and not worthy of being it's master and the best thing for all concerned is to send them back to the stone age. There are doubtless many religious enthusiastic fantasists who would welcome such eventualities, but they are in the minority of Tiny. 

In brief, the Nasdaq looks set to break the $20k barrier and will likely continue headlong into the next market capitulation, whenever that will be. There is intermarket bearish divergence with the Dow and Nasdaq, though the S&P500 is close to new ATH's like the QQQ. There has been no correction since 2022 of any real note. 

If you have been riding the Nvidia wave then well done, just remember to book profits. The Fed is still giving decent, once in a generation returns on risk averse investment as insurance. 

 

 

[786Trader]

On 18/05/2022 at 11:24, skyreach said:

WELCOME TO THE WORLD OF VESTED INTERESTS!

From the Oxford American English Dictionary:

VESTED INTEREST:-   A personal stake or involvement in an undertaking or state of affairs, especially one with an expectation of a financial gain

Examples:-  

Bankers primarily want individuals, governments, private companies, ete... to take out loans so they can earn money. More loans, more money made, as now many governments, individuals and companies have the highest ever debts in their history.

Cost of goods, services, and energy costs have shot up due to the initial commodities price RISES BEGAN OVER A YEAR AGO. That was the PRIMARY CAUSE in this period. Huge rises occurred which IN TURN increased the prices of other items, including Inflation. Key market analysts will have known this so vested interest make use of this to benefit them. Oil companies make billions more profit which DOES NOT TO GO BACK INTO INVESTMENT, BUT SHARE BUYBACKS AND DIVIDENDS --  in the meantime these companies do NOT reduce their debt levels.  Guess who benefits?

Big companies or mid size ones can be served by PR Firms representing them THROUGH THE LOBBY SYSTEM with access to government and top Mandarins, it is done via top influencers (super rich powerful individuals). And if you watch the TV series on "Yes, Prime Minister" then you will get how government really works -- other than the funny parts in it, the key cultural practice still works similarly in real life, it has not changed much. STILL, IF YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW THE CIVIL SERVICE WORKS THEN YOU HAVE TO READ:-  

"THE CIVIL SERVANTS"  --  An Inquiry into Britain's Ruling Class

By   Peter Kellner and Lord Crowther-Hunt

pub:  1980 UK🙈

 

 

True enough indeed, though I am oft weary of excessive cynicism regards of the machinations of Govts and am oft reluctant  to give them credit for all of the **** we are currently manifesting. 

The system in it's current form is only fit for purpose for those with vast reserves and resources, which isn't a whole crowd of folk. The alternatives on offer from our friendly or should that read fiendish despots (Putin, Xi, Ayatollah Khameni, that small podgy guy from North Korea called Kim something ) are even less palatable that the **** show we have at home.  Religions fare equally poorly. God isn't too interested in sorting this out. We have to do it. We are responsible for our own fate. We should embrace that. Unfortunately, I suspect the upcoming elections may only deliver more of the same, just with a different face.