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Caseynotes, I think the volatility in Bitcoin is largely down to the fact that shorting is not available yet. Right now you buy and then sell. When there are more buyers then the price moves upwards but when there are more sellers the price drops. Call it corrections, drops or whatever. Shorting will help Bitcoin be more efficient. Shorting will also help Bitcoin set a more realistic price level whatever that may be and once it is settled in theory it should see a little bit less volatility.

 

I have been tracking Gold for the past 10 years or so and I just don't think the new generation of younger market wizards want to utilise their capital in gold. I think we are seeing a shift after many years from gold to other alternatives of which part of it is in the likes of Bitcoin amongst other things. I think traditional large banks, Central Governments, etc. are all reducing their exposure to Gold. I accept that the likes of India and China will always be large buyers of Gold due to religious and custom reasons but I think that is now no longer enough to move the Gold price upwards above $2,000.00. I am not so sure even a war would move Gold up to $2,000.00. The reason why Asia is big on Cryptocurrencies is because it does not want to rely on Gold in times of economic certainty or rely on anything that can be manipulated by large powerful Governments.

 

I am not convinced with Gold at present unless I see evidence from its price action and behaviour. It may well have had its best year in ten but the other side of the story is that it has had poor nine years.

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Gold had a big down day yesterday tagging support at 1260, currently not finding many buyers here. A break of 1260 could signal a big move down.

As   points out below, millennials definitely prefer bitcoin. 

 

XAUUSD(£)Daily0612.png

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Gold and Silver are have both declined today. The charts is not looking good from a technical perspective on either. Fundamentals do not seem to be making much positive impact on price.

 

From a macro level, there is a finite amount of investment capital. It has to be allocated somewhere and as a last resort in a bank but somewhere. Historically in times of crisis, political uncertainty, as a hedge in one's portfolio there was always a place for gold. However, with digital currencies / cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technology unpinning it we are heading into a future which cannot be compared historically. We are heading in a different era. Those who embrace it, take some managed risk and understand it will benefit from better returns from their investable capital.

 

I am yet to see any meaningful or substantial evidence from the price behaviour of gold and silver to convince me that it is even worth considering allocating any capital whatsoever to it. Even as a trade it offers very little. There have been better commodities to trade over the past six months such as Orange Juice, Lumber, Soybean Meal, etc. 

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Gold stalls at prior support turned resistance. Anticipation of the passing of Trumps tax reform bill rumoured early next week, if fails could shake a number of markets.

 

XAUUSDDaily1512.png 

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Gold has had a good run lately but is closing in on a big resistance level, without major event risk most likely to consolidate soon. XAUUSDDaily2712.png

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The monthly chart shows gold is well poised for a breakout after the last two strong months.

 

Edited to include daily chart.

 

 

XAUUSD(£)Monthly.pngXAUUSD(£)Daily.png

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If you look at the 4 hour chart then the rise to gold came well before the 'bloodbath' we are witnessing in cryptocurrencies. There were suggestions in the media that when cryptocurrencies crash that the capital is going to shift straight into gold. The 4 hours charts for both gold and cryptocurrencies do not suggest this to me.

 

The question is will this capital simply stay on the sidelines or be re-invested back in cryptocurrencies at a lower price?

 

As for gold, I agree that from the charts it looks like it is due for another breakout. I think with Brexit uncertainties, we could see gold rising for the next 12 months (albeit slowly) but rising until it is known how the UK is going to exit the EU. Add Trump uncertainties and you can see money coming into gold on those two points alone from the UK and US perspectives. 

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Yes, money coming out of crypto must go somewhere and that's not going to be the US dollar just yet. The other nice thing from the technical stand point is the lack of obstruction above monthly resistance for some distance up the chart which tends to ease passage all else being equal.

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To me the gold chart is looking a bit wobbly. It does not know what it wants to do. Usually economic and political factors influence the gold price. Also when stock markets around the world start declining then that too can have a positive influence on the price of gold. For gold investors I think it is about patience and holding. It is a defensive asset after all. 

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The monthly chart has the look of just needing one decent sized geo/politcal event to really get it going.

 

Spot Gold_20180314_10.11.png

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Interesting geopolitical risk chart from Saxo, The 12 month average continues to rise.

 

gprisk.PNG

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Remember gold has been waiting for an excuse to jump up above 1369 for 3 months now. World War III just might do it.

 

 

Spot Gold_20180411_14.23.png

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If there was World War III then I would put my money in Bitcoin.

 

We saw what happened to the Bitcoin price when they was only rhetoric between Trump and North Korea.

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But can bitcoin survive an electromagnetic pulse  ah?  Gold can :smileywink:

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Maybe the fusion of Bitcoin and Gold could be the answer for the ultimate safe haven. There are companies right now looking to back Bitcoin with real physical gold. I am not so sure as I think Bitcoin wants to be a digital store of value which replaces the need to physically buy, hold or even the need to acquire gold. 

 

To answer your question if there was something like an EMP attack then unless it was in the entire world at the same time then the Bitcoin network would continue as normal around the rest of the world. How likely is it that there would be an EMP attack in the entire world at the same time? Very unlikely. 

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I don't see Bitcoin as a safe-haven as eventually, it will be superseded.  Better computers, better algorithms - it becomes worthless.  It is no better than a fiat currency in my opinion, only perhaps more practical.  

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Have a look at the price action of Gold right now at 20:33 compared to Bitcoin when Russia has called United Nations meeting in relation to possible US action in Syria.

 

Bitcoin is up 12% and Gold is down 1.39%. Which is the better safe haven in times of political uncertainty and potential of war?

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Crypto's are moving downwards on negative new and upwards on positive news.

 

The news itself may have no bearing on the future of these Cryptocurrencies but it seems that news flow is moving Cryptocurrencies right now.

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The spike today lasted just 30 minutes, it was intensive buying by people who had been waiting to pounce for over 3 weeks, the ruling you refer to was released on Tuesday, it was not the cause of the brief sudden spike today.   

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Au moment, 1:36pm AEST (GMT+10) Gold is up $5.00, Bitcoin $130.00 and Ether $25 : about 3.3%, 1.68% and 5% gains respectively.  

 

No news, rumours of war, and if anything the $AUD the stronger FX mover, 200pips (that I can see).  

 

Store of value v short term war insurance - might be more than one discussion here.  

 

Sharia schmaria - but it isn't backed by debt I guess.... Until it no longer becomes what it started to be.

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, those people you refer to who had been waiting to pounce over three weeks may be just a few billionaires who are in the club of owning 90% of Bitcoin. They are the ones who move the prices. They wait for the right narrative to be released and then once this narrative gets widely released and not just on the actual day of the news then it gives Bitcoin a stronger background for the move. These Billionaires want Bitcoin to succeed and need to present as much credibility as possible to the world hence why the news stories become important. I would not be surprised if these few Billionaires who move the Bitcoin price control the news flow or are aware of when it is going to get released and have a strong calculated theory of moving the Bitcoin price.

 

Though the actual news story itself may not be the cause, I think it was all part of the background narrative story to give the move upwards more credibility than just technicals. Bitcoin has to provide fundamental news to the 'person on the street' as they will not understand or follow the technicals.

 

If you look back then you will find similar patterns where there is a narrative that has been released to the world which coincides with the technicals on Bitcoin. I think going forwards you will find the same patterns.

 

However, you may right  but if you are interested then going forwards when any such spike occurs have a look at both the technicals and fundamentals and see what you think. It does not matter when the actual news stories were written, it is when they are released to the mainstream around the world.

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The gold charts shows gold retreating from long term resistance on Wednesday and continuing down yesterday but the bars are not special.

 

The bitcoin chart is different, whether the initial move can be credited to the Russia thing, or Muslims, or billionaires or traders short squeezing who knows but the spike was created by price taking out a series of prior highs and was pure price action. Once the short stops just above 7000 were taken out the buyers looked to target the next high at 7200 and then at 7540. The 1 minute chart shows the hesitation at each level before new buyers piled in each time.

 

Be interesting today if we see a bit of FOMO regret and a retest of 7500.

 

edited to add charts, 

 

Spot Gold_20180413_06.28.pngBitcoin (USD)_20180413_06.43.pngBitcoin (USD)_20180413_06.42.png

 

  

 

 

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Gold coming on to a crucial support level (as mentioned in another thread by @TrendFollower), converging onto horizontal and trendline support at around 1236 with a MACD crossover on the monthly chart.

Monthly and Daily Chart.

2035483603_XAUUSD()Monthly.thumb.png.d7aacd88e8a2a07abb402d94150fe038.png179251110_XAUUSD()Daily.thumb.png.5b2f25816d5b09b7070d1ddbe73837bf.png

 

 

 

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Good bounce up off trendline and prior low support on the weekly candle. Weekly chart.

24701612_SpotGold_20180708_19_45.thumb.png.a70480c8e41c5af4d3f1c34e9ab85a2e.png

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