Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Soybean Meal - When Fundamentals meet Technicals

Recommended Posts

I shall reply to myself but Soybean Meal is up another 740 odd points today. The chart is looking extremely bullish. There are concerns that Argentina may have dry weather which may hurt crop yields. From a fundamental analysis there is a reason for the rise in prices. From a technical perspective the trend is strong and there is a clear breakout.

 

I think the one thing I have learnt is that it is not important what the share, commodity or cryptocurrency it is. What is important is the trend and can an investor or trader profit from it either on the long side or short.

 

Share this post


Link to post

Hi Weakestlink, I am not suggesting that you should purchase anything.

 

Soybean Meal is not a company for which you can purchase shares from. Soybean Meal is a commodity. It is a grain like wheat and corn. It is classed within the 'softs' for commodities.

 

I am just stating the strong trend which can be seen from a technical perspective looking at the charts but stems from a fundamental bit of news which is the dry weather in Argentina and how it could destroy the crop yield. 

 

If you are still unsure with my explanation then may I suggest reading up about commodities either on the IG platform or via the internet. 

Share this post


Link to post

The price action is wonderful for Soybean Meal. Hit 34658 today.

 

It is trading above the 20 day, 50 day and 100 day moving averages. This is what I like to see.

 

Soyabean Meal_20180125_14.34.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

The greenback is helping Soybean Meal. It is weakening thus the price appreciation. Now for those who do not know or understand why this is? Well, overseas buyers have more purchasing power and they tend to buy more from the U.S. when the dollar is weak. It makes sense and is generally a strategy that is adopted by countries in Asia.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Soybean Meal is up another 860 odd points. Current price at time of writing is 35957. 

 

Soybean Meal hit a two and a half year high. The price behaviour seems to be based on the weather conditions. This is based on dryness in Argentina.

 

 

From a fundamental perspective you have US and China trade relation issues. US exports were cancelled.

 

When Fundamental and Technicals meet then it increases the chances of a move in favour of the direction in which the trend is travelling.

Share this post


Link to post

$37320 hit today.

 

It seems the rain that never fell in Argentina and potential short covering has led to this recent rally.

 

Argentina is a big player in the Soybean Meal market. It will be interesting to see what happens next. 

Share this post


Link to post

Soybean Meal hit $39106 today. My experience tells me that these markets, speculators, commodity hedge funds all like nice round numbers. As simple and silly as that may sound but over the years this happens more often than not. 

 

I think Soybean Meal will hit $40,000.

 

Whether the dry 'weather' conditions can impact the price for it to hit $50,000 I don't know but the key is to let the price action determine whether you add to your position, hold your position or your stop loss gets triggered and you are out.

 

For me the biggest commodity trades have been Lumber, Soybean Meal and Orange Juice during Hurricane Irma in Florida. They may not be the sexiest commodities like Oil, Gold, Corn and Wheat but their price action has sure been sexy!

 

:smileywink:

Share this post


Link to post

It looks Soybean Meal is playing out exactly as I thought. 

 

$40225 was hit yesterday. It may continue up briefly before a large / sharp correction. However, it will be interesting if it now goes for $50000.

Share this post


Link to post

Soybean Meal seems to be trying to breaking beyond the $38000 level but is finding it difficult. However, it seems to be holding its own at the moment. If it does hit $40,000 again then it really will get very interesting.

 

Fundamentals are playing a very important part at the moment. Tariffs combined with increase in imports for certain countries meaning that demand vs supply is crucial in this set of circumstances.

Share this post


Link to post

On Reuters today. “Concerns about trade wars could also hit some specific assets, such as U.S. soybeans and corn . Both products licked their wounds after having fallen 2.2 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively, on Wednesday on China's trade moves.”

Share this post


Link to post

Soybean Meal has gone back above $40,000. Can it surpass the $42,000 + figure hit back in 2016? If it does then this may get very interesting.

Share this post


Link to post

After the big correction in Soybean Meal is the downward trend going to continue or is there about to be a trend reversal? This will be an interesting one but remember we don't want to make any trades on what we think may happen but instead waiting for confirmation of any assumptions based on how the price does actually act. 

1356433428_SoyabeanMeal_20180906_20_28.png.3784d06a2cab9782434ed2c687289e70.png

I personally would be hold any short positions and waiting for at the 20 day moving average to be cleared before even considering any long trade as the chart below shows.

544810517_SoyabeanMeal_20180906_20_31.png.36074147b055da2df1bd825305e71672.png

 

Soyabean Meal_20180906_20.28.png

Share this post


Link to post

As you can see from the chart below that Soybean Meal has continued to decline albeit at a slower pace than on prior occasions during this longer term downtrend.

1361442529_SoyabeanMeal_20190506_13_55.png.509ef8d8f636e2bb1d46480254489f37.png

Share this post


Link to post

Soybean Oil is looking interesting as it makes 'higher highs' and 'lower lows'

27999370_SoyabeanOil_20191007_19_04.png.d84f95bf3998ea12e476590550f3fe67.png

The price is currently trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's on the 'daily'. However the 20, 50 and 100 DMA's are sloping upwards which is very bullish. 

1170181049_SoyabeanOil_20191007_19_07.png.8616eaee67ede5b3fb3baae38086a0de.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

Soybean Mean seems to be looking like it wants to break out. It is about identifying potential trading opportunities which can become the strongest trending. 

Now this may not lead to a strong breakout. This potential move may die pretty soon but there is no harm in monitoring the price action in case it is the start of a big move.

2035028760_SoyabeanMeal_20191011_17_21.png.4641051875259c4aa67a81a64ffe905b.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,879
    • Total Posts
      41,766
    • Total Members
      52,013
    Newest Member
    trader12341
    Joined 15/12/19 04:38
  • Posts

    • I think those swings were tradeable with a reduced position size on the Nikkei which tends to respect weekly pivots during European and American trading hours.
    • @dmedin, I don't know the answer but there may be others on the IG Community that are more knowledgable than me or even use EWT both successfully and are hugely profitable applying it. They may be aware of certain assets where the probabilities of using EWT are in their favour due to confirmed historical evidence. There may well be evidence that certain assets adhere to EWT more than others on a historical basis. Of course that does not guarantee that the assets will do so in the future but it just increases the odds and the likelihood of it occurring again.  Just because I don't have the knowledge or evidence does not mean such assets do not exist where the application of EWT would be greatly increase your chances of successful and profitable trades. I personally do not use or apply EWT to my trading and it has not hindered me. I would be interested in knowing which assets adhere to EWT more than others and what the percentages are. For example are there any assets which adhere to EWT historically over 70%? Let us put Natural Gas to one side for the moment as I personally think due to the extreme volatility you would have to be a supreme EWT technician to be able to consistently make profitable trades on Natural Gas using EWT. If you put NG to one side then are there any other assets which say adhere to EWT historically from say 50% - 70% of the time? I do not know the answer but if anyone does know then it would be very interesting and helpful to the IG Community, especially for those who are genuinely interested in EWT and applying it to their trading.  Also for those assets which say do adhere to EWT over 50% of the time how does a trader know that it will so on the next trend, next move up or down, etc? How does one establish apart from a failed trade after the event on whether the asset is going to adhere to EWT?
    • S&P has tested that trend line and is now blasting into outer space.  🥳
×
×