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Gold and Silver - Not shining!

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At present - 18:55 today the precious metals - Gold and Silver are certainly not shining. Both looking like they are preparing for the next leg down.

 

During this Bitcoin is looking like it is preparing for its next leg up. 

 

Is anyone stopping the big institutions and Central Governments from buying more Gold? Absolutely not. We have passed the Chinese New Year and Diwali (India) and it still had not made an 'ounce' of difference.

 

The price action of Bitcoin is certainly supporting the view that is Digital Gold or Gold v.2.0. There was a potential terrorist led explosion in New York and the Gold price is going down and Bitcoin price is not. Which of these looks like a safe haven?

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I was thinking about you  @TrendFollower and what you had said in a previous post. I Draw tragectories using the outer bands of my Bollingers and on my spot gold IG (DFB) the price has just crossed the Rubicon. If it ends the day that way I ageee it doesn't look good

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I think if $1200 is broken, then $1150 is broken then we may see selling down to around the $1060 area. Anything below this and I think Gold is in big, big trouble. There is downward momentum and this combined with shift of capital is extremely dangerous for Gold.

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Interesting. I didn't look where there may be support but would use my horizontal trajectories from previous peaks and trough's in the lower Bollinger band 20 3.00.

 

 

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Posted one of my Gold charts in the Santa Rally section showing my method. You may like! May also spark a massive argument too!

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I think if there is any panic and major correction in bitcoin then this could work in favour for POG, and therefore I have been looking at exposure to gold via ETF. It certainly has the best pedigree in times of panic, and I'd opt for this over the medium term, to bitcoin.


Keen to see how this thread develops. I don't have much time to add to this thread but interestingly the other day created a composite graph of bitcoin vs gold spot. If I still have it I will post.

 

Anyone here buy gold, and if so what method so you use?

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Looking to get long at 1203 -1189 Mark, the cycle is expected to end in indices during the time which would eventuate lower indices higher commodity pairs such as Gold and Silver. Will be a buyer at lower level

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Gold same pattern as Bitcoin possible recovery mode on 3m chart. Interesting. May be risky though as very close to the action.

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Aussie Media

 

co founders bitcoin sold all bitcoin / bitcoin as good as useless says bitcoin co founder / bitcoin co founder sells entire stash calls it virtually unusable as a currency

 

Gold was moving in tandem with Bitcoin may diverge. I've mentioned about the Aussie media exacerbating Bitcon's drop and it seems gold benefited from it.

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The 4 hour chart is interesting for Gold and Silver.

 

Gold is looking like it is getting ready for its next leg up. Silver seems to be finding it more difficult to get ready.

 

In a bull market, Silver, has behaved like Gold on steroids in relation to positive price action. It will be interesting to see how the price action of Silver reacts to Gold in the coming days and weeks.

 

 

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Silver is leading the way and showing Gold the path downwards!

The chart below illustrates this nicely. 

579600454_SpotSilver_20180904_19_36.png.1c5321452f83e90c42b31c8625815d63.png

Even with what is happening in Argentina, Venezuela, Trump trade wars, EU, Brexit, etc. capital is simply not being shifted into precious metals such as Gold even when there is so much risk around the world.

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It is interesting and silver is the quicker reactor of the two and though there looks to be more risk around the money continues to pile into S&P,  NASDAQ and Dow and until that changes it will still not be clear if gold/silver or any other new asset class (crypto) will be the 'go to' safe haven of any future downturn. Never pays to pull the trigger too early but rather just 'follow the money' (unless you are the money) ?  

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@Caseynotes, Gold and Silver have been short plays for a while now. Silver is like Gold but on 'steroids' when it comes to price behaviour in a bull market in precious metals. However Silver 'tanks' greater than Gold on the reverse. 

US markets have had a stellar run. As I have stated in other threads before that one must let their winners run and not exit too early. For a trend follower this would be when there is a clear trend reversal which leads to the stop loss being triggered. Bull markets last longer than one can imagine and are generally of a longer time frame than corrections or crashes.

Regardless of what one thinks of Trump, he has been brilliant for the US stock market. I just hope people have had some exposure to the US markets in their portfolio. I tend to go for funds which invest in US Smaller Companies for my US exposure due to my appetite for risk but large and mid cap US exposure would have been just great.

Just look at what is happening in Venezuela and the inflation issues in Argentina to see why such countries could turn to Cryptocurrencies. The Venezuelan Bolivar is not worth the paper it is printed on. What will the Venezuelans do buying Gold? This is where Bitcoin could be the solution and the Venezuelan currency crisis could be a historical factor and pivotal moment which is highlighted in the books to be written in the future.

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Gold and silver continue down because the S&P continues up and as you say a lot of that is down to Trump, for example 2016 repatriations of US company's world profits back to the US in 2016 was $38Bln but in 2017 was close to $380Bln, money that is being feed back into the US economy.

Venezuela has no money to buy gold or food for that matter, gold reserves are what you hold then spend during a downturn, they never had any to use now. They did just launch (in desperation) a crypto coin, but it's backed by a failing oil industry so it's doomed.

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Yes you are referring to the 'Petro' backed by oil which shows in times of dire need they have turned to cryptocurrency!

Venezuela Gold Reserves 

https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/gold-reserves

When former PM Gordon Brown sold half of UK's Gold Reserves I was not happy. However, it may have been an accidental masterstroke as the need for Gold reserves is diminishing. Its value is diminishing. This is just in my opinion. There are 12 countries around the world that have more Gold reserves which is rather telling. 

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    • Hi everyone,  so, those of you following my FTSE - Daily Trades thread may know, I'm looking for new strategies to tackle the market. Was starting to think about this today and made a few thoughts. First one I came up with in the process is the following and utilises 'Andrew's Pitchfork' a rather odd name for a simple principle.   Thought Process I was going back to the basics and starting to think about the fundamentals of trading: Buy low and sell high. Or go short high, and buy back low later. So the key of my new strategy has to somewhat depended on these fundamental trading principles. Next I was thinking, looking at a chart, in what region can the price considered to be "low" and in what region would I consider it to be "high". I was looking at a 5min chart and looking at the whole day. I was drawing one line at the low of day, one line at the high of day, those are obviously the extremes where everyone can agree prices are low / high. Then I draw a line right in the middle between the two, where the price is neither high nor low. Then I draw a line at 25% and one at 75% and said, if the price is between the low of day (0%) and 25%, I consider the price to be low. If the price is between 75% and high of day (100%) I consider the price to be high. In between (25%-75%), it's neither high nor low. If I'd somehow manage to always buy in the low range and sell in the high range (or go short vice versa), then this could be a decent strategy. The next problem I was facing is, I've done this analysis on the previous day, where we know high and low of day. How can this strategy work out for future price movements, where high and low of day are unknown. Andrew's Pitchfork This is where the Pitchfork comes in. The assumption I'm making is that if I extrapolate the 4 required levels (low of day, high of day, 25% and 75%) from the previous day to the following day, the strategy still works. This is because more often than not, prices move up and down around a certain level, without breaking away from it and moving onto the next level. (This obviously has to be proven with data - more to that later) The way the pitchfork works is exactly how the 4 required levels are drawn up. The pitchfork is defined over 3 points: High, Low and Mid-point. It then draws 5 levels on the chart: High (100%), 75%, Mid (50%), 25%, Low (0%) So how does it work The way I imagine it to work is the following: 1) Identify previous day's high and low 2) Draw the pitchfork in the chart with aligning its high and lows on the daily high and low. The mid point is exactly in the middle of daily high and low. This draws a horizontal pitchfork in the chart. 3) When the price of the asset falls below 25%, place a buy stop order at the 25% level. Once the price rises again and breaks through that level, the order gets executed. (vice versa with shorting above the 75% level) 4) Stop Loss is right below (size of the spread) the low of the pitchfork. Target is somewhere above 50%-75%. You have at least a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Need to calculate target level by asset based on historic patterns. Does it work? Don't know yet. So far I've manually painted a few of those pitchforks in the chart for the past couple of days on FTSE100, NASDAQ, CL and NG and it seems it works more often than it doesn't. Cases where it clearly doesn't work is when there's a strong move to either direction, aka price breaks-out and moves to a different level than it was the day before. Interestingly when this happens, the strategy wouldn't necessarily always result in a loss, but sometimes the entry conditions would never be triggered in the first place. E.g. if we start the day already in the high region (above 75%) and then never fall below it - no order triggered on that day. On the negative side, huge breakout opportunities are missed with this strategy, so worth looking into a complementary strategy which works specifically for break-outs. Next steps Next, I'm trying to backtest the strategy. Will need to pull a whole lot of data and analyse. Hope to have that done over the weekend. Will update the thread accordingly. Data I'm trying to get: Win ratio, Where's the optimum take profit level, Time of day where this usually plays out (my idea is to hook this in with the ATR analysis I've done and trade this pattern at times of high ATR, aka FTSE, DAX in the morning, NASDAQ, NG, CL in the afternoon)  First success First successful example trade taken this afternoon on CL. You see nicely how the pitchfork is drawn on the chart and is derived by the high and low of the previous day. At 14.30 today the price dipped below the 25% level. I set the buy stop order at the 25% level, which got triggered at 14.35. The price afterwards makes a sweep move up to the 50% level, where my limit sell order gets triggered at 15.15. It would've been possible to play it up until the 75% level, but wanted to be safe, without having the data yet. Could've been luck - who knows.   What do you think of this approach?        
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    • https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/10/17/emerging-market-stocks-just-break-out-of-a-20-month-downtrend
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