Copper Commodity Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

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Copper Elliott Wave Analysis

Copper has been advancing steadily since its August 7th low, with gains exceeding 14%. The commodity is poised for further upside, potentially reaching the 4.7 resistance level before a notable pullback occurs.

Looking at the broader picture, Copper has been in a long-term bullish trend since March 2020. During this time, a diagonal structure seems to be forming, with waves (I), (II), and (III) of the supercycle degree completing in March 2022, July 2022, and May 2024, respectively. Following this, wave (IV) began in May 2024 and found support in August 2024. There are now two possible scenarios for wave (IV). It may have completed as a zigzag structure or could extend into a double zigzag if the current rally fails to surpass the May 2024 high.

If the current bounce from August 2024 progresses as an impulsive wave, this would confirm the completion of wave (IV) and the initiation of wave (V). However, if the bounce unfolds as a corrective structure, a further leg lower for wave (IV) remains possible. The key level to watch is 4.62. A break above this level would confirm the long-term bullish continuation for wave (V). Conversely, if the rally fails to breach 4.62, the likelihood of further downside increases, favoring a prolonged wave (IV). Despite this, the overall bias remains to the upside until a definitive reversal occurs.

On the H4 chart, we are observing a dip for wave (4) of the primary degree wave 3 (circled). This pullback is anticipated to find support between the 4.43 and 4.36 levels. Once support is established, wave (5) is expected to push Copper higher, targeting the 4.62 to 4.7 range.

In conclusion, Copper remains in a long-term bullish trend, with the current bounce determining whether wave (IV) has ended or another leg down is required. Traders should watch for a break above 4.62 to confirm the next major upside move.

Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo

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