Jump to content

FTSE100 - Daily Analysis


Guest Chanakya

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 263
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Guest Rich88

Thanks mercury I'm short ftse 6220 as I don't think the big money's buying above 6200.

The US is well into overbought zone now and with oil falling off 40 worth a short

Link to comment

I don't use pivots so can't comment specifically but as you know markets never move in straight lines so I anticipate a retrace of this downward move early on.  Whether that happens today or tomorrow around NFP I can't say.  So far the whole looks like the rally end was reached on 18 March followed up by a W1-2 (all the way to the 88% Fib) and then back down.  Assuming this is a W3 (or a Wc) then another W1-2 before the bigger move down is likely.  Once again I am struck by how eriely similar this pattern playing out is to last November...  For now I am happy with my Short at the W2 turning point yesterday with close stop and will await NFP events before considering another position.  The only thing that would drive me to take another Short would be a decent small W1-2 but I'll be watching the US markets for correlation on that.  We really need the US to give up on their optimism here.

Link to comment
Guest oilfxpro

FTSE  is flat .do nothing signal.doing nothing is a good trade:smileyvery-happy:

:smileyvery-happy::smileyvery-happy:

 

 

 

 



Link to comment

Not bad - quite good actually!  Hope you cranked up the exposure for that one - could have the month off ?

Good trading.  Cheers.

Link to comment
Guest oilfxpro

6170  IS  LOADS OF RESISTANCE AREA.

 

 

The indices regularly  revisit the previous  night's  wall street closing prices  .I never sell ftse    above s and p support  or  if  s and p is in up move  , opposite for buy 

 

 

 

 





 

Link to comment

The FTSE100 is running in similar fashion to all the other markets (bar the US) with an apparent Wave 2 turn being consolidated.  Thee US markets exuberance is propping up all but the Nikkei but I don't see that lasting, in fact I see the US ending with a final flourish, probably today when it opens, before a sustained drop in all stock indices.

 

On my daily chart the price has returned to, and bounced back down off, my down-sloping tram (red), which coincides with a Fib 76% on the Hourly.  There is decent Neg Mom Div on both time frames and over bought Stochastic and RSI (dropped on the Daily and heading down).  The is an additional negative divergence on Stochastic on the Hourly chart.

 

I rarely look at the 15mins chart but on major turns I do to see if there is a 5/3 pattern and here we have a 5 down and 3 up (in prog and near end?).  If the US does indeed turn at the points I highlighted in thge US markets thread then the FTSe could well complete this 3 up (in a final 1-5 pattern) and turn at the Fib 76% off the previous rally (the higher of the 2 yellow lines on the hourly chart).  This ties with a similar apparent target on the Dax.

 

Worth a Short on the FTSE at these levels but I would be waiting to see how the US opens, it could pop and then drop in which case a fast entry on the FTSE could be an excellent trade.  On the US I'd prefer to see the 5/3 before entering.

 

Any alternative views?

 

Charts:

 

Link to comment

Condor,

 

In the end the US opened as I'd hoped with a small drop, not by any means conclusive yet and US strength (or over optimism if you like...) has been holding the European markets up but is that about to change?  Japan continued a hard move down over night (about 1,400 points in total over the past few days!) and FTSE and Dax look set to follow.  Dax has just put in a new lower low as I write this.

 

Looking at the FTSE the nested EW1-2 pattern looks good after a major turn Dow (18 Mar - Pink 2 label on chart).  We have a series of negative Momentum Divergences at each W2 turn (inc a large one on the Daily chart at Pink 2).  This is set fair for a strong run down in a W3.  My only reservation is the US markets, which should be due to complete a short drop with a strong retrace before a larger drop.

 

For today at least I see bearishness in Europe, followed maybe by a retrace rally when the US opens but once the US achieves a reasonable rally and if this rally runs out of steam without making a higher high then get the parachutes out...

 

Here is the chart:

 

Link to comment
Guest Condor

Hi Mercury, thanks for your updated chart - we are now testing 6076 FTSE & I wondering if we could be heading for sub 6060 maybe even 6020 within the day - It would be a brave person to buy in now expecting the swing up into the recent trading range (be interesting to see if that happens or not, I doubt I'd have the cojones to do that!).  Perhaps this is the Slide down to new lower lows (your arrow indicates the way forward it seems to me).

Link to comment

Hi Condor,

 

For today at least it seems we are in a Bear move so any retrace rally is an opportunity to add more shorts rather than to go Long for me.  Longer term I expect further drops until we settle at a major potential turning point.  If you look back at my long term scenarios you will recall that in all of them I expect this turn back up but can't yet be sure what happens after that.  This is why my strategy is to swing trade this move (I am heavily short now but will cash most at the major turn (TBC) and only go Long at that point.  all my Shorts are stop protected at B/E so I have confidence in adding more on any retrace at this point.

 

As this move goes on we may get some clarity on US open.  If the European markets retrace back up to a significant level before the US opens then we could see the US taking everything back down again (maybe not on open but soon there after).  Let's see... 

Link to comment
Guest oilfxpro

FTSE looks ranging on ranging , short term moves prediction can be mproved by look at sectors  .oil , dow , dax  s nd pn  politics

Link to comment

FTSE 100 just made a lower low (let's see if it closes the hour below or not...).  This move has all the hallmarks of a W3 so if we get a close below 6067 the next low to conquer is 6000.  It would travel straight there of course but any retrace has to be seen as a Shorting opportunity right?

Link to comment
Guest Condor

Yes that's a good point (retrace rally add more shorts) as they will be cheaper to add on the retrace.  Like that thinking a lot.

 

US Open will be fascinating - will be watching with great interest.

Link to comment
Guest oilfxpro

I  don't think it is time to sell   , it is oversold  and bottom  of range  

 

Dow  with similiar stocks is now below resistance , so all depends on U  S

 

oil at 35  is not bad  , if it drops more    then maybe  ftse may follow

Link to comment

If by not time to sell you mean intraday I tend to agree.  The time to get Short was yesterday and early this morning.  I went Short at 19.00 yesterday and 07.00 this morning.  On a Bear day the early bird catches the worm...  

 

I am expecting a relief rally soon that might take us to US opening and then I will be stalking more Shorts.  My only concern is that the US markets have been strong and while I'm expecting the rest to be in the grip of a decent Bear, the US may do some quite strong retracing before they join the party.  This may hold the European markets up a bit but that could offer more Short entry opportunities.

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • image.png

  • Posts

    • As the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 approaches, the cryptocurrency market is under intense scrutiny. The halving of miner rewards every four years not only regulates the supply of new bitcoins but also profoundly impacts market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics. This period will provide unique opportunities and challenges for the Qmiax exchange.   Halving events often increase the visibility of Bitcoin and typically lead to price and adoption rate increases, sparking widespread discussions about blockchain technology, Bitcoin network dynamics, and cryptocurrencies as a unique asset class. As an industry builder, Qmiax has prepared thoroughly for the upcoming halving event. The platform has not only strengthened its technical support to handle potential high transaction volumes but also provided educational resources and market analysis to help users better understand the halving event and its potential impact on the market.   History shows that although Bitcoin has seen price increases and expanded adoption rates in the months following halving, market reactions to each halving event have been different. The 2024 Bitcoin halving event presents unprecedented characteristics in several key aspects, requiring investors and market participants to remain vigilant and prepared for possible market fluctuations. Qmiax has strengthened its market analysis capabilities, providing real-time data and in-depth technical analysis to assist users in making well-informed decisions.   During this period, Qmiax has introduced a variety of new tools and services to support the trading needs of users in a high-volatility environment. These tools include enhanced risk management settings, more flexible trading options, and enhanced security measures to ensure the safety of the assets and transaction data of users.   In terms of education and support, Qmiax has launched a series of educational workshops and online courses on Bitcoin halving and its impact on the crypto market. These resources aim to enhance the market knowledge of users, enabling them to make wiser investment decisions during this critical period. Through these efforts, the platform has not only strengthened customer trust and satisfaction but also reinforced its position as a leader in market education.   The platform has enhanced its collaboration with other major cryptocurrency markets globally, ensuring consistent services and support worldwide. With this global perspective, Qmiax continues to demonstrate its influence and innovation in the cryptocurrency trading field.   With the Bitcoin halving event approaching, Qmiax is fully prepared to meet this market milestone. Through technological innovation, customer education, and global market cooperation, the platform not only supports the current market but also lays the foundation for future market changes. In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies, Qmiax is committed to providing leading services and solutions, leading the industry forward.
    • Gold Elliott Wave Analysis  Function - Trend Mode - Impulse Structure - Impulse wave Position -Wave 4 Direction - Wave 5 Details -  Wave 4 has reached the extreme area and bounced off the 2300 MG1. We will expect wave 5 to progress higher. However, it’s still in the early stages. Invalidation below 2245.17. Gold has undergone a retracement since its peak on April 12th, following a remarkable surge to a fresh all-time high. Despite this pullback, the underlying bullish momentum remains robust and is anticipated to reassert itself once the corrective phase concludes. In today's analysis, we delve into the potential areas where Gold may discover the necessary support to propel its next upward movements.   Zooming into the daily chart, our Elliott Wave analysis commences with identifying an impulse wave sequence originating from the low at 1614, marking the termination of wave (IV) at the supercycle degree back in September 2022. Presently, the supercycle wave V is unfolding, currently navigating through the third leg of the cycle degree, denoted as wave III. Within this wave III, classified as an impulse wave, we find ourselves within the third sub-wave, indicated as blue wave '3' of primary degree, further delineated into wave (3) of intermediate degree. Within this intricate structure, the price action appears to be nearing the culmination of minor degree wave 4. Consequently, the impulse sequence characterizing the intermediate wave (3) has yet to finalize, let alone the overarching supercycle wave (V). Thus, Gold's bullish trajectory remains firmly intact, advocating for a strategic approach of buying into the dips within this robust trend. Presently, the price appears to be undergoing a dip corresponding to wave 4 of (3), with an anticipated subsequent uptrend in wave 5.    Transitioning to the H4 chart, our focus narrows on the completion of wave 4, manifesting as a zigzag pattern since the peak on April 12th. Conventionally, the termination of the third leg of a zigzag typically occurs at extensions ranging from 100% to 138.2% of the initial leg's length from the subsequent corrective move. However, an extension beyond 138.2%, particularly to 161.8%, tends to invalidate the zigzag pattern. In this context, we cautiously assert that the zigzag for wave 4 might have concluded, with a critical level of invalidation identified at 2245. Nonetheless, further confirmation is sought through the emergence of more bullish candle formations. Meanwhile, the target projection for wave 5 remains at 2500, aligning with the continuation of Gold's upward trajectory within the Elliott Wave framework. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : TradingLounge.com get trial here!        
    • Surprising US PMI drops contrast with Europe’s gains in services, pushing EUR/USD higher as markets recalibrate economic outlooks and monetary policy expectations.   Source: Getty   Forex Euro Pound sterling European Union Inflation EUR/USD Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg   Publication date: Wednesday 24 April 2024 07:28 Flash PMI data provides unflattering US outlook, Europe improves German and EU manufacturing remains depressed but encouraging rises in flash services PMI results suggest improvement in Europe. UK manufacturing slumped well into contraction, but also benefitted from another rise on the services front. It was the US that provided the most surprising numbers, witnessing a decline in services PMI and a drop into contractionary territory for manufacturing – weighing on the dollar. EUR/USD rises after us PMI shock EUR/USD responded to lackluster flash PMI data in the US by clawing back recent losses. The euro attempts to surpass the 1.0700 level after recovering from oversold territory around the swing low of 1.0600. The pair has maintained the longer-term downtrend reflective of the diverging monetary policy stances adopted by the ECB and the Fed. A strong labour market, robust growth and resurgent inflation has forced the Fed to delay its plans to cut interest rates which has strengthened the dollar against G7 currencies. The surprising US PMI data suggests the economy may not be as strong as initially anticipated and some frailties may be creeping in. However, it will take a lot more than one flash data point to reverse the narrative. If bulls take control from here, 1.07645 becomes the next upside level of interest followed by 1.0800 where the 200 SMA resides. On the downside, 1.06437 and 1.0600 remain support levels of interest if the longer-term trend is to continue. EUR/USD daily chart     Source: TradingView EUR/GBP surrenders recent gains EUR/GBP rose uncharacteristically on Friday when risks of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran subsided. In addition, the Bank of England’s(BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden stated that he sees inflation falling sharply towards target in the coming months, sending a dovish signal to the market. Today the BoE’s chief Economist Huw Pill tried to walk back such sentiment, stressing that the bank needs to maintain restrictiveness in its policy stance. He did however, echo Ramsden’s remarks by saying the committee is seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of the inflation dynamic. EUR/GBP appears to have found resistance around 0.8625 and has traded lower after the PMI data, even heading lower than the 200 SMA. A return to former channel resistance is potentially on the cards at 0.8578. Prices settled into the trading range as central bankers mulled incoming data and the prospect of a first rate cut appeared a fair distance away. Longer-term, the ECB is on track to cut rates in June, meaning sterling will extend its interest rate superiority and is likely to see the pair test familiar levels of support. EUR/GBP daily chart   Source: TradingView       This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
×
×
  • Create New...
us