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2018-Bitcoin

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Bitcoin is a bubble like TTM ,which busted on turn of the century.

Similarly Bitcoin would burst in 2018.

 Peter77

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Little knowledge is very dangerous. I am not an expert on Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies. However, I do read as much as I can on the subject along with Blockchain. The media in terms of TV news channels, newspapers around the world and online websites are also dangerous as they report on little evidence on the subject of Bitcoin and there is a lot of 'bias' in the way they report the news. The price action of Bitcoin does not follow the media stance on Bitcoin. There is a lot of scaremonger tactics. 

 

Bitcoin is not held by large institutions. Bitcoin is not held by many people. Bitcoin is in the hands of the very few even now at $15,000 price. So when suggesting it is a bubble one must be clear on what defines a bubble. I do not think it is wise to compare the tulip mania to Bitcoin as both were under different circumstances, era's and economic environments.

 

Cryptocurrencies are the future. I think most will fail and only the best ones will remain. Those will continue to increase in price. In my opinion Bitcoin will be the mother of all Crypto's. The 'Origin Point'. The base and foundation. The equivalent of the gold standard in the crypto market. It will be a digital store of value. I cannot see Bitcoin being the main digital currency but I can see central governments adopting their own digital currencies going forwards in the future. There are rumours that Israel are working on a state cryptocurrency. I can also see several digital currencies that could hit the mainstream market in the future. However most of the thousands of cryptocurrencies will fail and disappear with investors losing their money.

 

If Bitcoin is a bubble and you all have knowledge and experience of how a bubble operates then embrace this knowledge and experience and use it to make money. If Bitcoin is a bubble then it has a lot more upside still left as there are far too many people who do not have any exposure to this asset class within their ISA's, SIPP'S, personal pensions, trading accounts, investment portfolios, funds they hold such as OEICS and investment trusts. Once institutional investors get involved, ETF's are launches, OEICS and investment trusts are created for this asset class then you can say that Bitcoin could possibly be a bubble that is only if and a big if it does not become a currency that people use or a digital store of value. 

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We wait and see whether little knowledge or big hype up is right.Only the time will tell.

First of all there is going to be a financial crises next year.

 

 

Regards

 

 

Peter77

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Go on dreaming . Let us see whether it would be 100000 or divide by 1000.

Regards

 

 

Peter77

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What makes you think there is going to be a financial crisis? On what basis do you make this assumption? I do not know if there is going to be a financial crisis next year.

 

However, if your assumption were to be correct then there would be huge capital flows out of the so called 'normal assets' and is it possible or conceivable that this capital could flow into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? If so a financial crisis could be a major boost to the price of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

 

I have reported on previous posts in the past six months that every time there was any rhetoric between North Korea and Trump then Bitcoin went up considerably compared to historical safe haven of gold. 

 

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You are quite right that there are only few people who owns Bitcoin. Most of these few people are mainly speculators.

This Techno Currency is not backed by any Authority and is also not backed by any tangible assets.

Yes if there is any financial crisis ,investors will go for Gold rather than Bitcoin.

Again there are many reasons for financial crises . The situation in North Korea, Middle-east,South China sea ,these are are flash points and situation can deteriorate any time in future which will create financial crises. Rather than go for Bitcoin ,people will always go for Gold.

 

peter77

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I am sorry but I do not agree with your view and position. Let me try and explain why. If you or others do not agree with me then that is fine and each to their own beliefs. 

 

The reason why I state the above is because I personally carried out research on the price behaviour of Bitcoin compared to gold during every serious news item in relation to North Korea and Trump (missile launches, etc.) over the past 12 months. I even reported some of the results during the past six months on this very IG Community forum so if you look back at my posts historically then you will see the results for Bitcoin against gold in real time.

 

On every occasion in 2017 the Bitcoin price went up by far a considerable amount compared to gold which was miniscule. So the evidence in the past 12 months does not support your view which you share with such confidence.

 

Bitcoin outperformed gold when Trump was elected, Brexit, Syria, North Korea, Russia, etc. Have a look for yourself and then you will see why I do not agree with your view. The data suggests otherwise. One must be careful of the media. They have a bias and agenda on their stance for Bitcoin. I do not always accept what the media reports. If the media wants people to think Bitcoin is a bubble then the majority of them will report as such without knowing all the technical details, historical facts, etc. People then read such literature or watch such news and believe it because it has been reported by a 'reputable' media platform. This is called 'MARKET NOISE'. One must ignore this and look at what the price action and volume is telling you. 

 

Yes, historically people may have gone to gold during any financial crisis as gold was seen as a safe haven and still is. However we are now in the digital era and Bitcoin is trying to be the digital gold. It is trying to be a digital store of value. I have already witnessed in 2017 and prior capital flowing into Bitcoin during political turmoil, economic risk and financial instability.

 

Bitcoin is decentralised and so does not want to backed by any country or authority. It does not want to be manipulated by powerful countries who can move markets. The value of an asset is something that someone is prepared to pay for it. This is very simplistic in what is a complex area but that is for another time. Bitcoin is worth what it is as people are prepared to pay that price for it. Why is gold worth the price it is? After all it is a piece of metal. Yes it has commercial uses but at the end of the day it is a piece of metal which shines and the world thinks it is valuable. Bitcoin is actually more scarce a resource than gold. They have been mining gold for thousands of years. I think around 6,000 thousands years and they are still mining it now. So how scarce is gold? There will only be 21 million Bitcoins and if people are prepared to pay $50,000 for one Bitcoin then the price will appreciate.

 

I try not to let history and historical action cloud my judgement as otherwise it would be hard to accept, understand and appreciate any new innovation, new generation, new beliefs, etc. 

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We agree to disagree and wait and see what brings the future.

Thanks

 

 

Regards 

 

 

Peter77

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