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Svenska Cellulosa - Convincing short needing perfect timing


Guest Gordon

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This one is a data play.  Svenska Cellulosa demerged its hygiene products subsidiary in H1 17, so it's market cap fell, but data providers (including IG, Morningstar, Yahoo) are still compariing historical earnings with the latest market cap.  So on IG and morningstar the PE ratio is about 10x.  In fact it is about 30x current year earnings.  As a pure paper and pulp play look at its competitors.  Yes, its the better company with better growth prospects - but not that much.  Come results on 30th January or a day or two after all the data providers will update and it will be easier for all players to see how skewed the valuation is.

 

     

Distance to

 

Size

Price to

Price to

Analyst

 

Euro bn

Earnings

Sales

Targets

UPM Kymmene

13.7

14

1.4

1%

Stora Enso

10.4

14

1.3

2%

Mondi

10.2

13

1.5

22%

Int Paper

23.2

13

1.4

12%

Svenska

5.9

31

3.8

-15%

 

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