Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Has the Oil rally peaked?

Recommended Posts

Good chance we could rise into the US open. Though due a pull back now. Yes UK based

Share this post


Link to post

key moment now it's coming back to my entry point - hoping it turns again in which case I may short entry for a split bet.......

yes UK.  C

Share this post


Link to post

Yes still committed.  When I go in I let my Stop do the worrying for me and move on to other things or I get tied up in second guessing myself.  It may take several hours to resolve and could spike a bit before heading down so why worry?  The chances of hitting the top exact are almost infinitesimally small so you gotta expect and plan for some loss period before it comes good.

Share this post


Link to post

Was that the turn 10pts  short of earlier?  looked like it to me....hope so.  C

Share this post


Link to post

 I have a hit on the upper line of my congestion zone, a small poke through the Daily Fib 38%, which is providing resistance at present.  Of course this could still be a W3-4 turn or a short lived resistance point before a strong push in a rally.  Either way the market should retrace a bit and allow for a stop move to B/E to protect against any rally.  Let's see...

Share this post


Link to post

Well I've added a second short believing rightly or wrongly that was a turn so now I can have a split bet going down and hopefully take profit on one and let the other ride.........we'll see.  C

Share this post


Link to post

Is Brent Crude in a mirror ending Triangle formation with USDCAD?  If the lower line is broken Oil could move down fast.

 

Getting movement across many markets in the run up to US open, I have a feeling this US open, or shortly thereafter will decide things for a good many markets.  That's very crystal ballish I know...

 



Share this post


Link to post

well that was horrible the oil when north rapidly and crashed through my stop losses :-( .....  C

Share this post


Link to post

Is this the real thing, is this just fantasy ?

 

I will wait for a pullback from this high to maybe go long and see what happens from there.

Share this post


Link to post

Russia and Saudi announce agreement on oil production freeze regardless of Iran. Oil price spike up.

Share this post


Link to post

Ah now i know why  - Announcement by Russia & Saudi on some accord on production, C  (just heard on bloomberg TV)

Share this post


Link to post

Oil is a spiky market because there are just a few big players, not one for trading all the time and if you do trade it at all you have to take these things on the chin.  Actually the spike up wasn't that strong for such an alleged piece of news...

Share this post


Link to post

Surely that cant be right, and if it was it doesnt include Iran so far- and they will keep pumping and fill in the holes to get the revenue and market share.

 

Just been reviewing WTI 1 hour and there is a mini channel north within the  wider uptrend that I posted yesterday.

 

Will continue to analyse - ( no Zees here :smileyhappy:)

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Saudi, Russia and the US are very far ahead of all the others in their ability to pump quantity. Any alliance of any the big three would be significant.

Share this post


Link to post

False or not it blew out my stops - as Mercury says one to take on the chin, goes with the territory of Oil i guess

Share this post


Link to post

Im glad I didnt join that party today - was waiting for a confirmation - phew.

 

WTI now at 61.8 fib on last major down run - lets see where we go from here.

 

Buy on rumour, sell on fact comes to mind - as does Fergies "sqeaky **** time"

Share this post


Link to post

Hard to see anything other than a steady rise on Oil now.  Time to step back and await events and focus on other markets.

Share this post


Link to post

The more I ponder this the more I look at the economics behind it.

 

We are now close to $42 on crude - at this level the shale boys will want to produce and offload given that the US is almost full and they have loans to pay. That could have a downward effect almost irrespective of Doha - interesting times ahead. The more we rally, the more production comes back on line - but economies are not demanding enough. Will be interesting to see how many  wells have opened up this week in the report.

 

Any comments/thoughts appreciated.

Share this post


Link to post

I'm out of Oil for the time being too - nasty surprise but contained by stop losses at reasonable level/acceptable loss level. C

Share this post


Link to post

that's trading!  make your assessment, take only an acceptable risk and live to fight another day.

 

Now how bout this GBP/EUR/USD thang?

Share this post


Link to post

it will be interesting to see if this rally continues, which their are no doubt some skepticism, as Mercury quite rightly pointed out, the more oil rallies, the more incentive their is for shale producers to switch on the taps again. This is why the opec meeting will by watched like a hawk by many. However if Saudi arabia wants to become a dominant player, they will have to seriously contemplate whether it is in their interest to take part in cutting oil production, when they unlike others can dig it out of the group for $2-4 and still make a profit, or risk loosing market dominance against other Opec producers  as well as shale.

Share this post


Link to post

ya pays yer money, ya takes yer choice.  I predict a lot of hype about the meeting on the 17th, with an associated rally, probably to the $50+ mark and then disappointment as no deal will be struck and the market will drop again.

 

For me there are easier markets than this one, I was interested in a turn and dropp scenario but I'll leave it until another major turn comes onto the horizon (somewhere between $50-55 is my guess at present).

Share this post


Link to post

Although this rally no doubt shocked everyone, there may, be something on this chart that might want us to keep a close eye on, although channeling up, we are a weekly pivot resistance approaching, and momentum also raising a few flags, expecially with the trend.



A few hours later on the chart.





Share this post


Link to post

If we reach 50 by the 17th then no one will want to do a freeze! Buy the dip till then.

Share this post


Link to post

The answer to my original question is NO, Oil hadn't peeked... Fortunately I made profit on the dip that paid for my stops of late so no worries.

 

Just a quick watch out to the Bulls, my A-B-C premise isn't fully dead yet and 4500 is a critical point.  If price makes a nice 1-5 up to this and turns then that could still be the Wave C...

 

Will be interesting to watch and if other signals are favourable I might chance a tight stop protected Short about there.

 

I think the current retrace is a W3-4, so a final wave up should shed further light.  I'll be waiting for that to show itself before doing anything.

 



Share this post


Link to post

Hmm!  This is meat and drink to contrarians.  This will no doubt filter into main stream media very quickly and comes, maybe, near the end of a strong rally.  I wonder...

Share this post


Link to post

Yes, it often pays to get ready to do the exact opposite to the big news analysts. Meanwhile...

 

 



 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,879
    • Total Posts
      41,766
    • Total Members
      52,013
    Newest Member
    trader12341
    Joined 15/12/19 04:38
  • Posts

    • I think those swings were tradeable with a reduced position size on the Nikkei which tends to respect weekly pivots during European and American trading hours.
    • @dmedin, I don't know the answer but there may be others on the IG Community that are more knowledgable than me or even use EWT both successfully and are hugely profitable applying it. They may be aware of certain assets where the probabilities of using EWT are in their favour due to confirmed historical evidence. There may well be evidence that certain assets adhere to EWT more than others on a historical basis. Of course that does not guarantee that the assets will do so in the future but it just increases the odds and the likelihood of it occurring again.  Just because I don't have the knowledge or evidence does not mean such assets do not exist where the application of EWT would be greatly increase your chances of successful and profitable trades. I personally do not use or apply EWT to my trading and it has not hindered me. I would be interested in knowing which assets adhere to EWT more than others and what the percentages are. For example are there any assets which adhere to EWT historically over 70%? Let us put Natural Gas to one side for the moment as I personally think due to the extreme volatility you would have to be a supreme EWT technician to be able to consistently make profitable trades on Natural Gas using EWT. If you put NG to one side then are there any other assets which say adhere to EWT historically from say 50% - 70% of the time? I do not know the answer but if anyone does know then it would be very interesting and helpful to the IG Community, especially for those who are genuinely interested in EWT and applying it to their trading.  Also for those assets which say do adhere to EWT over 50% of the time how does a trader know that it will so on the next trend, next move up or down, etc? How does one establish apart from a failed trade after the event on whether the asset is going to adhere to EWT?
    • S&P has tested that trend line and is now blasting into outer space.  🥳
×
×