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10/06/21 10:53
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US dollar on bearish path, USD/JPY tests support, USD/CAD eyes rebound, and AUD/USD faces overbought challenges. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares United States dollar Market trend USD/CAD AUD/USD Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York | Publication date: Thursday 30 November 2023 06:54 USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY (大口） has been on a major bullish run since the beginning of the year, it has trended lower in recent days following several unsuccessful attempts at clearing overhead resistance in the 152.00 region. After the latest pullback, which has been accelerated by falling US yields, the pair has arrived at the doorsteps of an important floor near 147.25. The integrity of this technical area is vital; failure to maintain it could trigger a drop towards channel support at 146.00. On further weakness, attention shifts to 144.50. In the event of a bullish turnaround, the first obstacle that could hinder upside progress appears at 149.70. Overcoming this resistance level might prove challenging for the bulls, yet doing so could spark a rally towards 150.90, possibly followed by a retest of this year's high. USD/JPY price action chart Source: TradingView USD/CAD technical analysis USD/CAD has also corrected lower this month, but it has started to perk up after encountering support near 1.3570-1.3555, where the 100-day simple moving average converges with a short-term rising trendline. Maintaining this floor will bring stability to the pair, and may create the right conditions for a rebound toward 1.3630. Further strength could redirect focus towards the 1.3700 handle. On the other hand, if USD/CAD resumes its descent and breaks below cluster support stretching from 1.3570 to 1.3555, we may see a drop towards the 200-day simple moving average, just above the psychological 1.3500 mark. Prices could gain a foothold in this area on a pullback, but in the event of a breakdown, a move towards 1.3400 seems very possible. USD/CAD price action chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis The downturn in the broader US dollar has benefited the Aussie significantly in recent weeks. For instance, AUD/USD has staged a solid rally in November, briefly touching its strongest level since early August during the overnight session. While AUD/USD retains a constructive short-term bias, solidifying confidence in the bullish outlook requires a decisive move above trendline resistance at 0.6675. Given the pair’s overbought conditions in recent days, this scenario may take some time to develop, but an abrupt and unexpected breakout could still propel the exchange rate towards the 0.6800 handle. Conversely, if upward pressure fades and sellers regain decisive control of the market, primary support rests at 0.6620/0.6600 and then 0.6580, near the 200-day simple moving average. On further weakness, we could see a retrenchment towards 0.6525. AUD/USD price action chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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German disinflation persists; US Q3 GDP revised up, overshadowing CPI, as eyes turn to EU inflation. Source: Bloomberg Euro Shares Inflation European Union United States United States dollar Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 30 November 2023 06:10 Inflation in Germany dropped to 3.2% compared to November 2022; and represented a further decline from October’s 3.8% year-on-year print. More notably, the month-on-month decline was 0.4% and sharper than the 0.2% estimate. Economic calendar Source: DailyFX Anticipation surrounds the EU's impending inflation data – due tomorrow - and its expected to show further declines in both headline and core measures. The ongoing inflation descent has led markets to factor in 2024 rate cuts, mirroring the pace expected from the Fed—amounting to just over 100 bps. Yet, the EU's economic resilience, lagging behind the US, raises concerns of steeper inflation drops. Declining activity may exacerbate economic challenges, posing a potential threat to the Euro." The inflation print was soon upstaged by the upward revision to US GDP growth, relating to the third quarter, resulting in an intra-day move lower on the five-minute time frame. EUR/USD five-min chart Source: TradingView The daily EUR/USD chart sees the pair pulling back today, after hawkish comments from Fed Board Member Waller, anticipated the first rate cut in the US taking place in three-five months. The dollar sold off notably thereafter. US PCE data tomorrow can further influence the direction of the pair tomorrow, as well as Powell's potential push back to Wallers rate cut comments. EUR/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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