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Looking to the future can only be about possibilities and maybe probabilities but if playing a range or an asymmetric range why wait for the move to be half over. Already a bit late for that play but useful to know the triangle is significant.

 

There is also the possibility of Ron William's view that if the triangle bottom breaks then the target is 3000. (Taken from the vid linked in the latest post on TA and market cycles in the TA tread).

 

mc4.PNG

 

 

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Ah, you need to watch the whole video (only 20 min) as he uses this chart to demonstrate how to put all the component parts of TA and market cycles he discusses together for the big picture.

 

So IF support breaks, price is below the 200 day MA, there would also be a break of the first standard deviation and the market cycle shows that within the bearish move since the start of the year there are distinct bearish/bullish phases. From the chart the bearish phases are roughly twice as long as the bullish and the current bearish phase looks like it has some way to go.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Actualy just wanted that video again. It’s really good. I’ve never really been one for TA as a whole and just running the whole strategy on it, more use as a potential entry point and where to slightly trim positions going into and out of a trade.

 

But this seems different. I like the explanation about the 20 / 50 / 200 MA and never really thought about it in the way of it representing 4 weeks worth of trading days, a quarter, almost a years worth (there are about 220 trading days in a year right?).

 

I think this is what I need more of to get behind TA. The WHY each indicator should work, rather than the HOW to use. How must be intuitive once people know the why…

 

Right?

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I think so too which is why I post links to articles that explain how different indicators work, knowing that gives a better understanding of their possibilities and limitations. Every indicator has it's limitations so each needs to be applied appropriately.

 

In the beginning most assume an indicator will just generate signals but that is exactly what they can't do. An indicator can shine a light on a particular aspect of a market and help make an informed decision as to future probabilities.

Most are based on OHLC of a number of time period bars or candles, the candles are the foot prints on the chart of the market movers so only candles generate signals.

 

The best way for us to make money is to spot a move by the market movers early on and get in quick, TA and indicators are there to give forewarning and indicate where to look for that signal. 

 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators

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