Bitcoin

[Caseynotes]

That's one way of looking at the bitcoin cycle. Note the smart money/ investors/ public demarcation.

 

[united18]

Still looks like a bear market with signs continuation of trend. Thanks for graph caseynotes.

[Caseynotes]

The slide to retest 6000 looks inevitable but what then? Consolidation and a retest of 9274 or a push through drop to retest 5000. 

 

 

[Guest PandaFace]

...let’s go for the 9k plus please Casey

[phillo]

My current chart ( well the old one, if you remember it, updated)   Red Zone retest anyone?

[Guest PandaFace]

Well yeh but is that the trade you’ve placed or just holding onto those crypto stocks and trackers all the way down?

[Vict]

the bitcoin will keep going down, just short, manage your fund well,  don't get a margin call, you will be rich

[Vict]

the bitcoin will keep going down, just short, manage your fund well,  don't get a margin call, you will be rich

[Guest Lamine]

I am long both Bitcoin and Ether for the short term, from a purely technical perspective. For both, support appears to be much nearer than resistance.

[Guest Lamine]

You are probably right. What I expect in the next few days is a mere bounce back to the region of 7500 for the bitcoin and something similar to 420-450 for the Ether. 

[united18]

Falling wedge with a minor h&s pattern signaled a possible reversal for me.

 

Discloser closed the short.

[phillo]

short term technical have been working ok for me

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin on a charge.

 

[Caseynotes]

Very good Nic Duke short vid covering this move and what to look for next, also touches on other alt coins.

 

https://vimeo.com/264417802?ref=tw-share

 

 

[Vict]

I say it again, just short bitcoin, manage your fund well, do not get margin call, you well be rich

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin did put in a strong 8 am bar to pass yesterday's high but has been lifeless since.

[united18]

Wouldn't be going long or short atm

[phillo]

 Bitcoin,   after failing to reach the "Red Zone",   Price continues to push up.  The move through the "Blue zone" shows strength    

[Guest PandaFace]

Did you bid at all or miss because it didn’t get to that red zone? bad luck if you didn’t get a fill elle as it’s been a pretty solid reversal

[united18]

Move up showing signs of exhaustion?

[Caseynotes]

 the daily chart showing a fairly substantial rejection at around 9500 with a reversal candle yesterday, be interesting to see if it can get any follow through.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin may be on it's way back up to triangle top.

 

[Caseynotes]

Looking to the future can only be about possibilities and maybe probabilities but if playing a range or an asymmetric range why wait for the move to be half over. Already a bit late for that play but useful to know the triangle is significant.

 

There is also the possibility of Ron William's view that if the triangle bottom breaks then the target is 3000. (Taken from the vid linked in the latest post on TA and market cycles in the TA tread).

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Is bitcoin trading going institutional?

 

https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/is-bitcoin-trading-going-institutional-and-what-it-means-for-you/

 

 

 

 

[Guest PandaFace]

I don’t get it. So BTC is on the support line in black, well below the 200 day MA, below the mean, has a divergence of 30...

 

Don’t all these indicate a move UP? Why the 3k target?

[Caseynotes]

Ah, you need to watch the whole video (only 20 min) as he uses this chart to demonstrate how to put all the component parts of TA and market cycles he discusses together for the big picture.

 

So IF support breaks, price is below the 200 day MA, there would also be a break of the first standard deviation and the market cycle shows that within the bearish move since the start of the year there are distinct bearish/bullish phases. From the chart the bearish phases are roughly twice as long as the bullish and the current bearish phase looks like it has some way to go.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest PandaFace]

Good video. Thanks

[Guest PandaFace]

Actualy just wanted that video again. It’s really good. I’ve never really been one for TA as a whole and just running the whole strategy on it, more use as a potential entry point and where to slightly trim positions going into and out of a trade.

 

But this seems different. I like the explanation about the 20 / 50 / 200 MA and never really thought about it in the way of it representing 4 weeks worth of trading days, a quarter, almost a years worth (there are about 220 trading days in a year right?).

 

I think this is what I need more of to get behind TA. The WHY each indicator should work, rather than the HOW to use. How must be intuitive once people know the why…

 

Right?

[Caseynotes]

I think so too which is why I post links to articles that explain how different indicators work, knowing that gives a better understanding of their possibilities and limitations. Every indicator has it's limitations so each needs to be applied appropriately.

 

In the beginning most assume an indicator will just generate signals but that is exactly what they can't do. An indicator can shine a light on a particular aspect of a market and help make an informed decision as to future probabilities.

Most are based on OHLC of a number of time period bars or candles, the candles are the foot prints on the chart of the market movers so only candles generate signals.

 

The best way for us to make money is to spot a move by the market movers early on and get in quick, TA and indicators are there to give forewarning and indicate where to look for that signal. 

 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators

[Caseynotes]

Strong break down through triangle bottom, now targeting 6405.