Jump to content

Indices


Recommended Posts

Weekly charts and an interesting Friday. Red weekly bars all round, it was all going good til Friday though Dax started heading down on Thursday with very poor PMIs, Then on Friday US PMIs were down on expectations though still in positive territory, then mid-day the treasury yield curve inversion breaking news and the selling continued as longs built up over the week were exited before the weekend. Ftse gave up all Mon-Thurs gains plus some as did the others. More interesting news that came out after the US close was that there would be no further indictments from the Mueller inquiry which is finally wrapping up, so no chance of a Trump impeachment on that score. That may make an impression when markets open and provide a boost, but if the fall continues the level to keep an eye on is the Dow support at 25214.

Included is the S&P daily, worth keeping an eye on this as well to see if it can turn the 2812.85 resistance level recently broken into support.

image.thumb.png.395c6c118b5b0d082ae22e99e5521647.png

image.thumb.png.e5f912ec3013f7aac280046243e47fcd.png

Link to comment

In the post above I wrote how the news of the inverted yield curve broke mid day Friday and may have contributed to the continuation down for the indices Friday afternoon, but before you all pile in short Monday morning there are a few important points to consider.

While it's true that the inverted yield curve (10y/1y) often precedes a recession, in the last recession of 2007 it preceded it by nearly a full 2 years. As an indicator that might be stretching it a bit. In fact the average lead time of the 9 recessions since the 1950's is 14 months, so you might want to take your finger off the sell button just for the moment.

338369617_yieldcurve.PNG.1e0810546a4c784e7ddd2d2a8281d004.PNG

 

Pic 2 is also interesting and shows a following recession is not a dead cert and also that currently the inversion has only just touched into negative territory. And in pic 3 we see that the more widely used 10y/2y has not inverted at all (yet?). 

Like all indicators it's indicating possibilities, something to be aware of, until there's price action confirmation I would keep the finger off the trigger.

image.png.3d76132923556b1d6f0cce66b3d70f69.png

image.thumb.png.1ffe9ef6b21cefcd4548c5e0a51f8260.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment

A small gap up on the Dow but quickly cancelled by an Asia inspired continuation down. Dow resting on 25373 with the above mentioned important weekly support level not far below at 25214 while there is prior support turned possible resistance above at 25503. 

Dax in a similar position resting on 11284 but below that is a long drop down to the weekly support at 10861, above is prior support turned possible resistance at 11404.

Ftse has dropped down into clear space with support at 7080 and resistance above at 7262.

image.thumb.png.1b407c3751e6dea78cd35392f5fc190f.png

Link to comment
On 25/01/2019 at 10:19, Kodiak said:

DAX daily

Lot of resistance around 11 700 ish

 

 

DAX 250119.png

 

DAX Weekly

The rally stopped at the old neckline

Lets see whats happens? if this rally since christmas is the real thing or just a bearmarket rally?

DAX W.png

Edited by Kodiak
  • Like 1
Link to comment
On 19/03/2019 at 08:49, Caseynotes said:

Dax pushing up to 11719 again, note this is a big support level turned resistance from 1 year ago. A break upward could start a larger move. Ger Econ Sentiment data out at 10 am.

image.thumb.png.e0229ce7a2789392f141d22bd6d4a05b.png 

Yes @Kodiak, the first head and shoulders can be said to have played out though not quite making the full measured move while the inverse H&S broke the neckline last week but got stomped on by the bad Ger manu PMI on Thursday. Nothing much news wise except maybe brexit or US GDP data this Thursday to give it a push either way at the mo.

Link to comment

Dow, Dax and Ftse have halted the climb back up to make a base camp, Dow stalling around 25600 on it's climb up after Friday's fall, Dax tagged the 11404 mentioned in yesterday mornings post. Fste stopped at 7207. The London open should show direction from here.

Nikkei was doing well until an hour ago when it suffered a large gap down seemingly on the CPI data release dropping to 0.4% from 0.5%. 

US consumer sentiment today at 2 pm. 

image.thumb.png.2caa3983232138be14a74271e911e5c1.png

Link to comment

Indices continue the haul upward this morning. Dow heading towards 25795 with support at 25540.

Dax looking towards 11569 having just broken through resistance 11447.

Ftse in a similar position trying to break up through 7222 to head onto 7262.

Draghi is speaking at 8 am and the Brexit circus rumbles on, not much else on the calendar today.

image.thumb.png.5433a01fb154477f8c547fb82464b696.png

Link to comment

All 4 gapped up on Sunday open after a strong bull weekly bar and heading to test weekly resistance levels so should be a fun week and US NFP to cap it off on Friday.

Dow currently checking the prior high at 26113 with the monthly chart resistance level just above at 26241.

Dax spent last week daily checking support before inching higher, no strong resistance til 11824 but EU PMIs this week could cause problems.

Ftse will be looking to continue on towards weekly chart resistance at 7370.

 

image.thumb.png.fc75a75672df08a1dfbaf13ed5e980f9.png

image.thumb.png.f5a898d442496b5e013c60ac16584ffe.png

Link to comment

As mentioned in the EMEA brief  " S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 2,834.40 - posting its best performing quarter since 1998 as it rose 13.1% for the period."

Yet SSI for S&P is 69% short, as it has been for all of March (at least, see previous posts).

Overbought doesn't mean sell, it's actually a trend continuation signal, dropping out of overbought may indicate time to think about taking profits.

In the same way, heading into resistance does't mean sell, you should be cautious but levels are made to be broken and strong momentum gives price a fair chance of doing that.

Picking tops and bottoms is a specialist art, part time retail traders nearly always get it wrong and sitting waiting for major reversals in multi year bull runs is just plain daft.

It's not wise to buy directly into resistance but it's not wise to sell directly into it either. Retail traders like to rush in then when caught out sit on losing trades for as long as possible hoping it might turn round but finally exiting when they just can't stand the pain anymore.

Let price decide what it's going to do and then try to catch the ride to the next level of contention.

indy.PNG.028b8b4e4175cbd49925e47bb37dbaa3.PNG

image.png.e4f9ffdf6c92e3ef71bfc9489d4a6a4b.png

image.png.12c38eff3678bab59c919ace7adeca60.png

 

Edited by Caseynotes
  • Like 1
Link to comment

For those who think Brexit is having an impact on the FTSE and FTSE Mid (more for the facts GBP devaluations can make an easy trade available on the arguably global FTSE index)

Short on time? Here's your quick Brexit summary:

Theresa May has suffered a substantial parliamentary defeat on a third attempt to pass her Brexit deal through parliament.

The prime minister had sought approval for her deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on what had long been scheduled to be Brexit day.

MPs voted by 286 to 344 against the EU divorce treaty, which if passed would have opened the way to Britain leaving the EU on a revised date of May 22.

Speaking after the result, Mrs May said: “The implications of the House’s decision are grave.”

“The legal default now is that the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on 12 April. In just 14 days’ time.”

Amid speculation she could be forced to call a general election, she added: “I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this House.”

In immediate response to the deal’s defeat, Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council of EU member states, called an emergency EU debate.

“In view of the rejection of the Withdrawal Agreement by the House of Commons, I have decided to call a European Council on 10 April. #Brexit,” he said on Twitter.

Britain is now due to leave the EU on April 12 without a deal unless Mrs May can persuade the 27 other EU leaders to grant a further extension in the Article 50 exit process. This would, however, require the UK to take part in European Parliament elections in May.

Got this from the FT's brexit roundup emails which I would recommend to all. Very good.

 

Edited by cryptotrader
Link to comment

also inflation in America is very much under control, in fact too much. The Fed tries to keep the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index at 2%. The Fed raised rates 9 times since December 2015 in anticipation of inflation rising. Falling core inflation may be seen as a sign of a weaker economy, but components can cyclically follow the business cycle (restaurant meals) or not (health care). The chart below shows not much has changed in either. Where is the cyclical inflation given America’s strong labour market?

276ada45-40b4-4f95-afdb-1d824d29f642.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment

Are Community users aware of our 'Momentum Report' ? May be interesting for some...

"The S&P 500 index reversed back to gains to end the last week of Q1 2019 up 1.2%. This brings the quarterly gain to 13.1%, a record not seen since Q3 2009 and tails the 14.0% drop in Q4 2018. A quarter where investors both bought into the riskier equities and picked up the safer bonds had been characterized in part by the brief returns of a goldilocks situation. This is with inflation pausing, central bankers being supportive and the market looking towards hopes of US-China trade resolution to aid growth. The question going into Q2, however, is whether these gains can be sustained.

The inversion of the yield-curve from the previous week had been one capturing the market’s attention into the end of the month as growth concerns mounted. That said, warnings of over-reading into the distorted bond market warrants the need from us to be cautious and this is likewise for the reversion to normal for the 3-month/10-year yield spread last Friday. Watching the series of economic data in the fresh week as prices on the S&P 500 index remain adrift. In particular, Monday’s ISM manufacturing, retail sales and Friday’s labour market updates will be key to watch for. Amid the backdrop of growth worries, positive readings coming through would be ones to help. US-China trade talks also resume this week in Washington awaiting updates on this geopolitical influence for markets. "

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Hi @KoketsoIG, Thanks for investigating margin requirements in another thread. Could you kindly check with the relevant team what overnight credit (column swap bid in platform watchlists) was applied for short USD/TRY positions at the end of the trading day on Thu, March 14? WBR
    • Corn Elliott wave analysis   Function - Trend  Mode - Impulsive  Structure - Impulse Wave  Position - Wave 2 in progress Direction - Upwards for wave 3 Details -  A break below 434 means wave 2 is taking a lower leg for an expanding flat and could enter 423-415. Not much has changed since the last update.   In the intricate world of commodities trading, particularly in the realm of corn prices, the Elliott wave theory offers a compelling lens through which we can analyze recent movements and anticipate future trends. As of the time of crafting this analysis, corn prices have embarked on a retracement journey following a notable surge of over 12% witnessed between the dates of 26 February 2024 and 12 March 2024. Presently hovering below the $430 mark, indications suggest a continuation of this pullback trajectory, potentially dipping below the $420 threshold. However, amidst this temporary setback, glimmers of optimism emerge from the shadows, hinting at a forthcoming resurgence echoing the momentum initiated on 26 February, when prices bottomed out at $394.   To fully grasp the potential trajectory of corn prices, let's delve into the historical context provided by the Elliott wave theory. In April 2022, corn traded at a robust $814, albeit falling slightly shy of its peak in 2012 at $846. From this pinnacle, the price embarked on a tumultuous descent, plummeting to $394—a staggering 52% decline within approximately 22 months. Within this tumultuous period, the market completed three distinct swings, painting a picture of either an impulse or a simple A-B-C pattern.   Should the former scenario hold, the completion of the third wave suggest a forthcoming minor bullish correction, potentially manifesting as the fourth wave. Conversely, in the latter scenario, a bullish correction remains probable, if not an outright impulse upside. In either case, the prevailing sentiment leans towards a bullish reaction, with the path of least resistance indicating at least a three-wave bounce. This sentiment gains traction with the inception of sub-waves within the broader blue wave A, emanating from the $394 low.   Zooming into the H4 timeframe, we discern the intricate dance of waves unfolding before our eyes. The completion of wave 1 within the blue A wave sets the stage for the ongoing progression of wave 2, poised to carve its path within the 424-413 zone before pivoting upwards for wave 3. Uncertainties loom, as we await confirmation of wave 3's commencement, signaled by the breach of the $445 pinnacle.   In this tapestry of market dynamics, opportunities abound for astute traders poised to capitalize on the unfolding patterns. With the potential for blue wave A to ascend to lofty heights of $500, buying the dips will be the way to go. As we navigate the ebbs and flows of corn prices through the lens of Elliott wave analysis, we stand primed to seize the opportunities that lie ahead, armed with insights gleaned from a meticulous examination of market dynamics.     Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com
    • Thanks very much, @KoketsoIG. That's much better than I thought it might be.  Best wishes, Cate
×
×
  • Create New...
us