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On the 1 hour charts our 4 have pulled back and pausing for a fresh look at the order book to see if they might try a new assault on the recent lows or continue higher for more help/sellers/resistance.

The daily Dow shows what a strong support level this has been in the past and the pin bar bounce would indicate it remains so.



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Meant to add in my last post that the strong support was the point in @elle's post above it, though couldn't say what the badly cropped 3rd chart was all about. 😶

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oops ! Sorry. Price bounced off the Black Friday lows. Last chart is a tick chart showing how useful MAs are


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21 hours ago, elle said:

Fib Levels  - Do they work ?     So what next?

Do Fib levels work?  -  yes - I mean no. Like all other technical analysis they work fine except for all the times they don't. Of course you can help the odds by adding some extra non Fibonacci numbers like 50 or 87. Or you could always add another level of probability for confluence, say a coin flip for example, so if in doubt flip a coin whereby heads = yes and tails = no.

It really all comes down to how many others are looking at the same thing as you, will there be enough to turn a prediction into a self fulfilling prophecy?

But there is another way. I like to sail and know that I need to be constantly aware of the ever changing force of the wind. Too much and the boat gets knocked down, too little and you are becalmed, so I make sure I'am always ready for either. I know that change can and will happen at any time so if wind dies down I add more sail, if it picks up I furl some away, simple. Can I predict when these changes are going to occur? - not really, I could take a guess but that's not very efficient.

Certainly it may be advantageous to have an idea when/where there might be an increased chance of change but best just to be ready and react when needed, it's a far more efficient and less stressful way to get to where you are going.




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Guest LiamS

Very well put Casey.


A great explanation of a very complex subject!!!

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Dow poised at monthly chart support level so the others will be watching carefully what happens next, minimal movement on Sunday. Dax retesting the Friday close and low on the European open. 



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Big V reversal in the Dow yesterday positions Dow and Dax to challenge the recent highs today while Ftse and Nikkei left looking a bit confused.

1 hour charts;


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