Indices

[Caseynotes 501]

The indices just pulling back a bit after a lack of much detail from either side after the end of the US-China. Fed minutes and members reiterating a dovish shift in outlook and both Powell and Bullard to speak today (around 5:40 pm) expected to continue that theme.

All looking for short term support this morning with a view to another leg up.

Zoomed out 4 hour charts; 

[Caseynotes 501]

So, after a market open that was more akin to a NFP release Dax now approaching short term resistance. Will be looking for a capture of 10863 and continuation upward.

[Caseynotes 501]

The Dow (and others) at a significant position on the daily chart, a break to the upside will throw it back into the higher band range while a break to the downside ...

Friday not a good day for major breakouts but given the Feds new respect for the emotional turmoil of the markets and so their easing up of a systematic rate rise approach and given an easing of US-China trade tensions further upside is anticipated.

But, as ever, new news can make the markets reverse on a pin head so as always, be ready for anything. 

[Caseynotes 501]

All looking poised for a break higher. Interesting Reuters report this morning that the markets are pricing in no further rate hikes this year at all and that plans are being made for China's president Xi to visit Washington latter this month.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/dollar-slips-on-fed-chiefs-patient-comments-idUSKCN1P501T

[Caseynotes 501]

Very similar story to yesterday, a morning attempt to break higher failed except for Ftse which was soon reeled back in. 

Yesterday saw the break upward after the US open, same may happen again today though being Friday any move may be subdued.

5 min charts; 

 

[Caseynotes 501]

US session and weekly close sees Dow back up to challenge resistance leaving the others left lagging. The daily Dow shows a second day attempt to drive lower thwarted and price back to nudging this very important level.     

[Caseynotes 501]

Dow just backing off the short term high pre Monday open, on the open will be looking for a run up to retest those highs and possible continuation.

Reuters reporting increasing concerns re China economy https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/aussie-kiwi-dollar-tumble-on-poor-china-trade-data-idUSKCN1P800V

JPY public holiday today.

[Caseynotes 501]

Fairly flat morning session, Dow remains close to the short term highs still looking for a push into the upper band range or a deeper search for more support, looking towards the US open for a sign either way.

 

[Caseynotes 501]

Dow and Nikkei take a peek over the parapet, Dax and Ftse looking on curiously, could shape up to being a strong up day, let's see.

[Caseynotes 501]

So after peeking over the parapet turns out the bears were waiting with a shotgun. After the fall Dow back up to take another look.

15 min chart;

[Caseynotes 501]

Here we are again, Dow poised for a break high. Mon and Tue saw the same thing but each time the London session pushed down strongly only to see the US session send price back up to toe the line.

Another round of G20 meetings starting tomorrow. Do they ever tire of those, why on earth do they need so many?

[Caseynotes 501]

Dow pushing higher on the US open, may be getting that break higher out of consolidation that's been looking likely since Monday.

[Kodiak 24]

DAX daily

 

For some reason i feel bullish (short term) 😰

I really dont know why😎

 

[Kodiak 24]

DAX 240 min

Tight trading range should break soon?

Hopefully to the upside?

 

 

Edited January 16 by Kodiak

[Caseynotes 501]

@Kodiak, that's what we should be looking for, tight trading ranges can only lead to one thing and that's a breakout, don't mind which way, if the bulls win price will march up, bears win then it's down. But the important thing is price must leave that old battle ground in search of new resting orders, it takes extra special effort to drag price back into a rejected large time frame trading range.

Coming up to US close and the Dow break up looks clean so far so odds in favour of Dax following suit tomorrow am.

Dow H4 and Dax H1 hour charts;

Edited January 16 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes 501]

Dow looking to retest breakout, Nikkei testing support while Dax and Ftse eyes on Dow. China needing to increase stimulus, Philly Fed manu index on the calendar though US gov partial shutdown causing a backlog of delayed data.

[Caseynotes 501]

The Dow break looks for continuation, Nikkei tries to secure a similar break, Dax looks to be about to make a break of it's own while Ftse has some catching up to do.

Dow got a good boost yesterday around 8:30 pm on reports Trump was contemplating rolling back China tariffs, the market didn't care those rumours were refuted less than an hour later.

[Kodiak 24]

DAX Daily

Maybe something like this?

[Caseynotes 501]

yeah @Kodiak,  looks to be following in the footsteps of Dow.

[Caseynotes 501]

All 4 gaining with Dax breaking out past 10994, Ftse up over the 6941 resistance level and Dow waits for the US open. 

[Caseynotes 501]

Public holiday in the US (Martin Luther King Day) and the markets may well take a pause following the strong run up on Friday.

Daily charts;

Edited January 21 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes 501]

Pullback off the highs this morning. Dow short term support 24572, Dax held at 11136 and Ftse currently at 6972 with short term support at 6954.

1 hour charts.

[Caseynotes 501]

More political turmoil and China stocks sliding, others following suit. Reports that US will be formally requesting the extradition of Huawei executive Meng. 

[Caseynotes 501]

Ftse getting out of sorts this morning and only belatedly catching up. Dow and Dax bouncing between support and resistance.

15 min charts;

https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/groundhog.mp4?_=1

[Caseynotes 501]

A zoom out on the daily just to remind ourselves of the overall picture. Into the 4th week of up trend off the low, as is pointed out by Kyle in the APAC brief, where this new next higher low (if that's what it's to be) is placed is important.

The PA for Dow between Oct and the start of Dec was large range and the bulls have worked hard to get price back into that range, can they keep it there?

[Caseynotes 501]

Dow and Dax attempting to break up past overnight resistance after retesting the recent low this morning. Ftse may look to follow.

1 hour charts;

[cryptotrader 86]

this is the davos chat for those interested

 

[Caseynotes 501]

As mentioned this morning re Dow Oct to early Dec trading range, bulls so far keeping Dow back in the box after a bear challenge to support level, tomorrow should see a try for higher before another low test.

Edited January 23 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes 501]

ECB rate decision today at 12:45 and Draghi presser at 1:30.

Dow poised midway between daily chart support and resistance (orange). Waiting for the open for direction confirmation.

1 hour charts;

[Caseynotes 501]

German manufacturing PMI falls below 50 signalling contraction, first time since Nov 2014  (8:30 am,  49.9 vs 51.5 expected).  Dax rises on the news -  why. Because it is so fully intent on shadowing the Dow.

1 minute charts;