Indices

[Caseynotes]

Something of a mini 1 hour flash crash yesterday at 4 pm on no news, indicative of a jittery market that is up against a boundary and has already priced in improved trade relations between US and China but still waiting for some actual proof.

Dow found support at 25608 then again more recent at 25757. The first target for the bulls will be to get above the old daily support line at 25868.

US non-manu PMI today at 3:00 pm forecast is 57.4

Dax dropped just below 11569 (red) and will be interesting to see if the bulls can get price back up and over and may provide a hint as to the direction of the Dow today.

[Caseynotes]

Interesting short video from Topdown Charts looking at 5 charts including China/US PMIs, DM/EM PMIs, Futures stocks vs bonds and the Investor Confidence Index

 

[Caseynotes]

Dow remains confused over direction and is ranging between 25726 and 25894 despite yesterday's non-manu PMI beat of 59.7.

Dax is following Dow while Ftse continues to dance to the Brexit deal or no deal headlines. Meanwhile the Shanghai Composite continues full steam ahead.

[Caseynotes]

US ADP non-farm payroll figures today at 1:15, could give a hint to the big NFP release on Friday. 190K forecast, note beats on the last 4 out of 5 (see pic below).

[Caseynotes]

Yesterday's Dow daily was a bearish bar taking price down to the support level created by the drop on Monday (25608 orange) so will be looking to see if this support holds today. Dow has the ECB rate decision (12:45) and the Draghi presser (1:30) to look forward to today. Though these have been dull affairs lately this one might be more interesting if the ECB change their outlook.

 

[Caseynotes]

ECB decides to pour more fuel onto the fire Dax up 50 points.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Another daily bear bar yesterday for Dow and Dax, Dax was caught up in the downward pressure on the Dow on the US market open after initially getting a boost from Draghi's dovish comments.

Also a big move down overnight for Nikkei. China reports exports down again for Feb and now down 16% y/y.

Already a lot of selling pressure on Dax pre-European open this morning.

[Caseynotes]

Yes @TrendFollower, China had expected to be up 6.6% not down 16.6%

US NFP today 1:30 pm. 180K expected but the adp nfp on Wednesday was below a similar forecast. Average Hourly Earnings m/m is forecast for an increase of 0.3%. 

[Caseynotes]

 

Brannigan Barrett @Trader_Bran

2m

"How much impact did #ecb QE have?QE created artificial steepening.German 2/10 curve is as flat as it was when QE started in 2015. So central bank inflated its balance sheet to 2.65trl & moment it stop,growth+infla expectations plunge!Europe is a dying patient on a morphine drip."

[Caseynotes]

Not that much of a reaction to the very low NFP number, just 20k as opposed to the 180k forecast. The reason being the Unemployment Rate actually went down from 3.9% to 3.8% and Average Hourly Earnings increase m/m went up from 0.3% to 0.4%.

The mid-week adp result (see posts above) once again signaled the direction of the Bureau of Labor figures. 

US market open coming up has seen a drop in the Dow every day so far this week (if memory serves). Let's see.

[Caseynotes]

On the daily charts and Dow looking for support at 25214 while Dax does to same at 11404 following a 5 day drop though Friday saw a daily pin bar for both off those respective support levels so today may see the bulls rally. US retail sales data today 12:30 instead of the usual 1:30 due to summer time clock change in the US.

Worth remembering that a bear market doesn't start from the high point of a bull market (and visa-versa). You might look at rejection of a test on resistance as a short-term shorting opportunity but don't lose sight of the overall trend which is Daily chart Bull and Weekly and Monthly chart Consolidation.

[Caseynotes]

The crowd is still heavy short the S&P but bets have been coming off, now 71% short after being 75% short early last week.

[Caseynotes]

Big daily bull bar Dow and Dax so looking this morning for longs as price continues up through yesterday's close until PA tells us otherwise. Ftse mid range, commons Brexit vote today - gbpusd gained on news the EU had granted concessions to May at yesterday's evening meeting, will get lively today as the actual details of a deal and vote result are known, could be a case of buy the rumour sell the news?

[Caseynotes]

[Caseynotes]

5 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Big daily bull bar Dow and Dax so looking this morning for longs as price continues up through yesterday's close until PA tells us otherwise. Ftse mid range, commons Brexit vote today - gbpusd gained on news the EU had granted concessions to May at yesterday's evening meeting, will get lively today as the actual details of a deal and vote result are known, could be a case of buy the rumour sell the news?

GBPUSD "could be a case of buy the rumour sell the news?"

Er... yes;

[Caseynotes]

Constant chatter on up coming commons vote;

"Brexiteer tells me a defeat by over 100 is on the cards. Here's why: - AG says backstop could trap us still - ERG says it cannot support - DUP's Dodds implies they won't back it.

"Charles Walker, vice-chairman of the 1922 committee & staunch defender of PM, says she will have to call election if deal is defeated: 'If it doesn't go through as sure as night follows day there will be a General Election within a matter of days or weeks. It is not sustainable'"

[Caseynotes]

We didn't get our continuation bar yesterday but rather a weak attempt to reverse. Will wait for the London open to gauge direction from here.

Dow will look to retest 25214 or aim for yesterday's high 25763. 

Dax in same situ, test of support at 11404 or yesterday's high at 11634.

Ftse, well who knows where that's going, looks to be sitting out the brexit game at this stage.

[Caseynotes]

 

[Caseynotes]

So from yesterday's post Dow did go back up to test 25763 but stalled there. Both Dow and Dax looking at long term resistance levels but lacking the impetus to attack them and not much on the calendar that might provide a push.

Ftse still sat on the sidelines while the brexit tug of war continues. 

[Caseynotes]

Dow and Dax and Nikkei capped over the last couple of days though remain poised to move higher but the news on the US/China trade deal is still of delay rather than progress, much like brexit.

[Caseynotes]

On the weekly charts Dow is looking to continue towards a retest of 26241 with the daily resistance level just ahead at 25927. 

Ftse is at the weekly resistance level 7262 and relative clear space above if can break through.

Dax is hanging around 11700 and should follow Dow if Dow can push up.

FOMC on Wed and BoE rate decision Thur. 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting short video from Chris Weston (formally of IG Australia) on the week ahead.

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax contemplating rising channel bottom on H1.

[Caseynotes]

As was going to be in the APAC report the markets are reluctant to move too much immediately before the FOMC rate decision and report tomorrow, Dow content to mosey on up to the fence and just peek over to the other side as is Dax and Nikkei. Ftse has made a break for it and will be interesting to see if it can make that stick today.

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax pushing up to 11719 again, note this is a big support level turned resistance from 1 year ago. A break upward could start a larger move. Ger Econ Sentiment data out at 10 am.

 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting day yesterday with an unexpected shoot for the top and fall back. Getting in on a high immediately before FOMC would have been ambitious and the market seems to have thought better of it.

FOMC at the changed time of 6:00 pm today with the presser at 6:30.

 

[Caseynotes]

Something seems to be stirring in Downing street, May wanted an extension to June 30th,

EU says May's letter arrives too late and rumoured to demand extension must be to Dec,

May calls a cabinet meeting today which lasts just minutes before they are all back out on the street with long faces (according to Guy Lambert BBC).

Rumours that May will make a statement at some time soon today.

Breaking news that Tusk to make a statement on Brexit at 1600 GMT

[Caseynotes]

Good read in the APAC brief on the double edged sword of the FOMC meet yesterday causing an initial jump higher in indices on reduced expectation of rate rises then reflection and price recall with future growth not so certain and a reduction in general risk appetite. Gold took off and hasn't looked back. Same for USD except in the opposite direction.

Dow is currently looking to retest support at 25658 and same for Dax which is heading down towards 11569.

Ftse with it's Brexit concerns coiling down mid range and Nikkei heading to close around support at 21422.

H1 charts;

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax trying to punch down through 11500, if the drop continues next level down is 11472 then not much in the way down to 11400.

[Caseynotes]

Strong bull day for Dow and Ftse yesterday, Dax still struggling to keep up, Ger PMIs today at 8:30, manu expected at 48 (47.6 last month, less than 50 is contraction) Ger services PMI expected 54.8.

French PMIs at 8:15 an EU PMIs at 9:00.  US PMIs at 1:45.

On the Dax H1 yesterday's low 11464  or  H1 resistance at 11601 are the initial targets.

Ftse sitting mid way between H4 support at 7292 and H4 resistance at 7370.