Indices

[Caseynotes 241]

After yesterday's London session dive the Dow has regained Tuesday's levels with the Nikkei not far behind so looking for similar progression in the Dax and FTSE in this morning's session. 

[Caseynotes 241]

The Dax and FTSE failed to keep step with the Dow yesterday and remain near the lows of their recent ranges while the Dow looks to break out of the top on it's own, the lack of EU and UK follow on is presumably the result of the Turkey situation and the large exposure of Euro banks. With the Dow being a leading index and that link temporarily broken the short term direction for the Dax and FTSE is not clear.

Weekly charts;

  

[Caseynotes 241]

Dow, Dax and FTSE look well positioned for a push higher today.

1 hour charts;

 

[Caseynotes 241]

Expecting Dow to continue to creep higher so looking for Dax to retest 12375 and FTSE to retest 7617.

4 hour charts;

 

[caodangyduocsaigon 0]

I do not understand what you mean. 

[Caseynotes 241]

Trump in the news again and the markets wobble. The Dax , Dow and FTSE appear to have put in a short term base and look to be testing the highs following Nikkei but they are very nervous. 

The Euro open is suggesting a retest of the lows but will wait for the London open for confirmation as to direction.

1 hour charts;

 

[Caseynotes 241]

Dow, Dax and FTSE remain stuck in this tight range of the last 4 or 5 days waiting for something to break it, China trade news presumably.

4 hour charts;

[Caseynotes 241]

Nikkei has pushed on higher while the Dow, Dax and FTSE are trying to push up off support so today looking for the Dax to retest 12412 and 12441.

1 hour charts;

[Caseynotes 241]

Dax just put in an interesting break bar on the European open following the Nikkei up while Dow sits poised to break higher as well.

[Caseynotes 241]

Dow makes the big break and looks now to be eyeing up the January high which is over 600 points away so likely be some bumps on the way. Dax will have the same problem reaching for 12887.

Daily charts;

[Caseynotes 241]

All a bit hesitant yesterday but a look at the weekly charts show Dow's continuing rise while Dax and FTSE moving up off good support and Nikkei pushing hard against resistance.

[Caseynotes 241]

Tomorrow is month end and end of the holiday season, as things pick up will the early signs point to a break up and out of the weekly chart in the previous post, or head back down?

On the daily chart Dow and Dax have stalled the last few days. FTSE testing recent support and the Nikkei not will to go higher alone.

Dax stuck in it's recent range with the Euro open 1 hour bar suggesting a retest of 12497 initially. 

[Caseynotes 241]

The 4 hour charts show all 4 indices trying to pick themselves up off support and the biggest risk (China- US trade war) subdued for the temporarily (Trump doesn't start tweeting til about 1pm UK time). So in the morning session will be looking for Dax continuation towards 12577 though being a Friday and month end and with a lot of uncertainty about it may well get a bit dull.

4 hour charts;

[Caseynotes 241]

So that call went wrong very quickly. Dax immediately dropped to challenge and break support on the London open and is now in the middle of a congestion zone the bottom of which is around 12290. Not dull at all but not clear what it's going to do from here.

[zala 11]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

So that call went wrong very quickly. Dax immediately dropped to challenge and break support on the London open and is now in the middle of a congestion zone the bottom of which is around 12290. Not dull at all but not clear what it's going to do from here.

I got stopped out yesterday at the SP500 after going long, I re-entered now.

Given the political news oriented around the tariffs, and the positive sentiment on a Canadian deal and solid fundamentals in the U.S. I only trade long, and enter long positions when the VIX shoots higher.

DAX and the E.U. is a different beast when it comes to GDP growth versus the U.S. with core inflation at 1%.

[Caseynotes 241]

Increasing chatter on twitter that a US deal with Canada looks increasingly likely by today's deadline.

[Caseynotes 241]

The indices are looking for support following the China/US trade negotiations fail. Dax trying to hang on to 12309 while FTSE saw a good bounce up off 7417.

4 hour charts.

[Caseynotes 241]

Dow and Nikkei still have their bull flags intact while Dax tries again to lift up off 12298. FTSE looking to continue its move upward, currently at yesterday's high after a US session  pullback.

4 hour charts;

 

[Caseynotes 241]

The 8am London open yesterday saw the Dax run straight down nearly 250 points before staging a pullback. The 7am European open today Dax is testing yesterday's low - 12161, below that is the weekly chart support level at 12110 (red).

The other three are also looking for support with the FTSE trying to hang on to 7436 but a test of 7417 looks likely.

1 hour charts;

[Caseynotes 241]

Interesting split as the Dax and FTSE break below their weekly support levels while Dow and Nikkei remain in touch with their highs. Early price action this morning suggests the Dax wants to go lower, the desync between the US and Euro/UK indices is a bit disconcerting. As mentioned in the APAC brief there is no scramble to safe havens in the US as yet so it's wait and see. NFP tomorrow may rearrange things.

Weekly charts;

[Caseynotes 241]

Dow continues in it's bull flag while the others are still looking for support. A look at the monthly charts shows a different perspective where the Dow is within striking distance of the highs while Dax, FTSE and Nikkei regroup.

 

[Caseynotes 241]

The recent disconnect between the US and other DM continues while EM continue their slide. If this is all down to trade wars it's seems clear who must be winning but that's not the whole story. A while back in another thread I relayed a report I had read about the improved repatriations of US company profits back into the US thanks to Trump's cutting of corporation tax. I'd seen a report that the figure had risen from $38 Bln previous to nearer $380 Bln for 2017. But a few days ago I read a Bloomberg news report that repatriations were $380 Bln (up from $50 Bln average over last 5 years)   for Q1 of 2018.

Admittedly I may have misread along the way but whatever, there is a lot of money coming out of other markets back into the US economy.

 So looking at the weekly charts again, from a technical stand point. Dow is looking to test the highs 26166 and 26703.

Dax looks to test the low of 11690, FTSE the low of 7094, Nikkei the low of 21834 and 21451.

 

[Caseynotes 241]

Interesting article by Nordea Markets relating to the US ISM manufacturing PMI hitting 61.3 last week while taking a forward look to the US mid-term elections. 

https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/45906/fx-weekly-who-wants-to-impeach-a-60-ism-president

[Caseynotes 241]

Dow remains in it's bull flag while the rest attempted to rise the most successful being the Nikkei. FTSE stagnant around 7280 while Dax tries to get purchase on the 12000.

Daily charts;

[Caseynotes 241]

Interesting pin bar double bounce off recent support for both Dax and FTSE daily candles while Dow also tested support before heading back up.

Super Thursday tomorrow with EU and BoE rate decisions and mon policy statements.

FTSE and GBPUSD will continue to be at risk from Brexit statements and increasing Tory rebellion against May's leadership.

Daily charts;

[Caseynotes 241]

Mostly doji candles for yesterday, Nikkei shifts higher, Dax and FTSE rest on support while Dow presses resistance. Super Thursday, no change in rates expected. BoE vote count and Mon Pol statement at 12:00 and Draghi presser at 1:30.

[Caseynotes 241]

Interesting report relating to the US economy. Small business confidence at record highs in survey's 45 history. 

https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/

[Caseynotes 241]

ING cheat sheet for Draghi presser;

[Caseynotes 241]

Dax spends the morning positioning itself to strike at the important 12110.

4 Hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes 241]

Dow and Nikkei look set to make a break higher which should boost Dax and FTSE.

Daily charts;