Jump to content

Indices


Recommended Posts

Another big sell off inspired by the US session again yesterday with patient recovery during the APAC session. FTSE least affected and nearing the top of range.

Difficult to call whether this 3 bar rally is just a short term retracement before a move to test the lows or a reversal back towards Wednesday's highs. The Euro open at 7:00 may give a hint but the London open at 8:00 should decide it.

image.thumb.png.65f4bc7f3b2ea26b9049ac2bda11d988.png

 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

The morning session saw a trip down for Dax to retest 11487 while Dow went sideways, Dax now returning to 11623 as Dow attempts to break up through 25500 which was a support level on Wednesday. So the US session again looks poised to go higher but the story this week has been for the US open to push lower.

image.thumb.png.2eb2985b7e287dde140988d5932586ec.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

Week end and a look back over the daily charts the Dow looks corrective rather than bearish after the recent refusal to go through the highs while the trade dispute is unresolved.

They have all gone into consolidation with strong support while waiting for new news to determine next direction.

The recently announced new up coming trade talks were put on hold during the week with China refusing to consider making any concessions. Meanwhile reports continue out of China of retail sales being badly hit in large markets such as new car sales and property sales with some new build apartments seeing a 30% price drop. Bloomberg reported during the week on the devastation to retail traders in China's stock market quoting an average loss per trader of 100,000 Yuan (around $15,000). China has run out of ammunition for tariff retaliation and Trump looks happy to continue playing the waiting game.

image.thumb.png.e58b1dcd7bf602c65929c1e6eba2c62a.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

All the major indices, including Nikkei, seem to be at consolidation and turn points to me, if the final leg up thesis is valid.  Looking for the first time for a while at the DAX, which I don't usually trade, I noticed a potential Pennant/Triangle formation, which has just touched the bottom line and bounced away.  A breakout of the upper line would confirm another leg up but a spec trade at the bounce is also a decent low risk entry.  A break through the bottom line would be bearish and suggest the final top is in before the greatest Short of our life times.  For now I am leaning towards a final leg up scenario unless or until proven otherwise.  Close stops and tight money management is required more than ever if this is in fact the end game of the Central Bank bubble.

DAX-Weekly191018.thumb.png.d3d66c717170c6447678bb22edc2658f.png

 

 

Link to comment

As expected yesterday the indices went looking for resistance and finding it at the short term highs when price fell back to settle near the starting point. Looking at the charts last night it seemed obvious that the next move would be to retest the lows so was a little annoyed to find this morning that they had already done it with Dax dropping 90 tick in the early hours. The down side may not be over yet though as Dow is still reaching and Nikkei has pushed through it's orange daily support level.  >> 

image.thumb.png.14f24bafe653a21755c91d2d08638596.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Guest PandaFace

I would have suspected we’d be seeing some good movement on the upside of late, but it looks like it’s not really pulling through. 

Maybe earnings this week will help, but I certainly wouldn’t be playing with large stops! 

Link to comment

FTSE100 is too, I can see another small leg down though before any rally, especially on the NASDAQ, which I am guessing will open soft and hot the 7000 area before any rally, or else plough on through recent lows of course...  Given the depth of the current retrace (if retrace it is...) there is not much to go before we could see a break through support levels, which makes the case for having already seen the end of the Central Bank Bull stronger.  A turn and rally has to happen soon, although this kind of consolidation can go on for ages, I don't think so however as I think the market will resolve this one sooner rather than later.

Link to comment

SP500 and Dow just short of Fib 62%.  In the former case this is on a parallel tram-line too.  This is an important zone of support I feel.  Could get another test or two on the hourly chart but a firm rally away from here would be Bullish.

Also have PMD on the 4 hour chart.

SP500-Daily_231018.thumb.png.d4f4ffca01658f21d16181531e8ab244.pngSP500-4-hours_231018.thumb.png.5b07891d870fe2b78721ba558749d1da.png

 

Link to comment

Nasdaq appears to be leading again as the Tech Boom 2 revives, but it is a last gasp rally?  There are 2 rally scenarios:

  1. A final leg up to fresh all time highs and market top before a crash slowly begins
  2. The top is already in and this will be a 1-2 retrace to a suitable turning point before a resumption in the drop

But for now I am just concerned with ensuring this is a rally phase at all and the current drop is ended.  Nasdaq has pushed to a higher high in out of ours trading supported by the Nikkei.  It looks like a minim Flag has formed and been broken.  If correct we should not see another significant retrace until the 7350 area.  Let's see...

NASDAQ-1-hour_241018.thumb.png.fedca7d35a1a56c2a6510de3e8d3846a.png

Link to comment

A new day and new levels after a sharp recovery rally on the US open yesterday finding resistance and then consolidating in unison during the APAC session.

Once again looking for the European open at 7:00 am to hint at the mornings direction and confirmation on the London open at 8:00 am. Currently they are looking to test the 1 hour chart support levels (green).

image.thumb.png.c1ab14a960f7faa2a089712dcea4cb5c.png

 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

Still stuck in consolidation, ho hum!  With a fairly swift move down on US opening I looked for alternative scenarios.  It looks to me like we could see a retest of the 7000 area on Nasdaq (and whatever is similar on others).  This would from an A-B-C deep retrace before a possible rally away off the support levels.  Could take the rest of the day to resolve and leave us with another day of wondering "is this it" tomorrow. 

NASDAQ-1-hour_241018.thumb.png.3764ccfeb0a4052dad4fb17f98c253a7.png

Link to comment

Nice bit of bouncing around with Dow revisiting our old friend 24895 twice today. Dax got off to a slow start with poor German PMI manu figures this morning plus concerning data from Deutsche Bank. All 4 kept in reasonable step and with only an hour and a half to go before US close suspecting these levels may hold.

image.thumb.png.540ce103f8d1e93731462b6fdbe2ce5d.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

alas not.  Japan took another tumble.  Looks like everyone is skittish about a big fall, and no surprise there really.  Will have to let this play out a bit to see how things shape up I think.  Without detailed analysis there will be a strong rally but whether that will be a retrace before the big plunge or a final bull splurge is impossible to say at this time.  No need to jump onto the Bear bandwagon at this point as a large part of the current Bear move is done in my view, just waiting to see where it will turn to rally again for clues as to whether or not we have seen the end of the Bull or not.  Either way the next big picture rally will run high and will retrace more than 50% of the current move down.

Link to comment

 

11 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

with only an hour and a half to go before US close suspecting these levels may hold.

Ha, famous last words - Dow uses the last hour in the US session to break down through the important 24895 then consolidates during the APAC session.

US durable goods today and Advanced GDP tomorrow.

Currently waiting for a directional break from this short term range.

image.thumb.png.3d28cbe484ef70a03eaff1e505c2a432.png

image.thumb.png.d852d00ec98c55fd2edcb426543b3ea0.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

Looking at the 4 hour for a sense of near term direction our 4 indices were seeking to retest the recent low which on Dow is 24530 and Dax 11050.

On the 15 min Dax there looks to be some indecision with an opening range marked out between 11200 and the green 11132 so will be looking for a break of either.

US quarterly GDP figures at 1:30 pm today may cause some action prior to the US open.

Draghi speaks at 3:00 pm. 

 image.thumb.png.1c10ca25b3ff6ae8feb7fb53e641753a.png

image.thumb.png.2f13ecbaa95dea46d95a84101cab24c1.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Just recently, I wrote an article about how a Solana blockchain art project (Artrade) is helping artists raise their earnings and even further transforming their physical works into RWA essentially NFTs. With that in mind, I came across Rarible, a marketplace that focuses on digital art and NFTs and the similarities of the platforms caught my attention. Rarible allows artists to sell their creations as NFTs, essentially digital certificates of ownership and cuts out middlemen, connecting artists directly with buyers. Beyond trading, Rarible offers a somewhat user-friendly interface for creating NFTs, even for beginners.   The platform unlike Artrade is built on the Ethereum blockchain and uses its own token, RARI, for governance and rewarding active users. In the long term they seem building with the goal of becoming a DAO in the future While it’s still early days, I have no doubt Rarible offers a unique approach to buying, selling, and creating digital art, and the recent listing on Bitget will further expose it to new communities and potential investors.     Do you think RARI's approach will be sustainable as a marketplace for NFTs?
    • Soybeans Elliott Wave Analysis  Function - Trend  Mode - Impulse  Structure - Impulse for (5)  Position - Wave 1 of (5) Direction - Wave 2 of (5) Details - Wave 1 of (5) completing with a diagonal. Wave 2 bounce is emerging before the price turns downside for 3 of (5). Invalidation now at 1226’6. Not much has changed since the last update.   Soybean Price Analysis: Elliott Wave Perspective Signals Continued Downward Trend   In the realm of commodity trading, Soybean has recently undergone a significant downturn, marking a nearly 7% drop since March 21st. This decline appears to be part of a broader trend that commenced back in June 2022. However, before this recent descent, there was a brief period of respite characterized by a corrective bounce starting in late February.    Delving deeper into the price action, an Elliott Wave analysis sheds light on the intricacies of Soybean's movement. The daily chart's decline since June 2022 reveals a corrective pattern, delineated into waves A-B-C, as denoted by blue annotations.   The initial wave, labeled as Blue Wave 'A', terminated at 1249 in October 2023, exhibiting a distinct diagonal pattern. Subsequently, a modest rebound ensued, marked by Blue Wave 'B', which concluded at 1398 in November 2023. However, the ascendancy was short-lived as the bears regained control, manifesting in the ongoing development of Blue Wave 'C'. This wave, evolving into an impulse wave, has currently progressed to wave (5) following the completion of wave (4) in March 2024.   Zooming in on the H4 chart, a granular analysis reveals the sub-waves of wave (5). Wave 1 of (5) concluded with a diagonal structure, followed by a corrective phase as the price undergoes a temporary upside correction to complete wave 2. Despite uncertainties regarding whether wave 2 has fully concluded or will undergo another upward leg, the overarching trajectory remains clear – a downward break is anticipated to continue wave 3 of (5), leading to further downside movement.   In light of this analysis, the prevailing sentiment favors sellers, who continue to assert dominance over the commodity market. As long as the price remains below 1226’6, the outlook remains skewed towards further downside potential, with the possibility of reaching the lowest price point since November 2020.   In conclusion, the Elliott Wave perspective offers valuable insights into Soybean's price dynamics, signaling a continued bearish trajectory in the near term. While short-term fluctuations may occur, the broader trend suggests that sellers are likely to maintain control, shaping the commodity's price action in the foreseeable future.   Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!        
×
×
  • Create New...
us