Jump to content

Indices


Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Ha!  Maybe I find something with more practice and learning 🤓

you've learnt nothing except that silly patterns often don't work, or indicators, or gambling.

look at what this guy has done, see all the testing he's done, see how it's done properly. that's actual work on something real that yields results you can use. go through the vids, select strategies he has found that work, try them on your own time frame, be systematic and professional 🤓

If nothing there works for you then invent your own combos and test them.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgY_eHY4NCTcRnU6CCZXWng

image.thumb.png.75ee028f5b802a9a99968f8b31d4ad8d.png

  • Like 1
  • Thought provoking 1
Link to post
  • Replies 5.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Was interesting @PandaFace, even more so now as people realised Trump was only discounting the most severe response  to China (for the moment), not actually halting the 'trade war'. Bounce off th

JESS ........TWO BARKS FOR BUY     ONE BARK FOR SELL   ???

Dax pausing at the weekly R1 and Dow within striking distance of it's all time high. H1 charts;

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

They've been moving down all night... looks like a lower low with a lower high in the making to me

been moving up for the last 8 hours. what will happen today I don't know so I will just hitch a ride which ever way it does move.

Link to post
5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you've learnt nothing except that silly patterns often don't work, or indicators, or gambling.

look at what this guy has done, see all the testing he's done, see how it's done properly. that's actual work on something real that yields results you can use. go through the vids, select strategies he has found that work, try them on your own time frame, be systematic and professional 🤓

If nothing there works for you then invent your own combos and test them.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgY_eHY4NCTcRnU6CCZXWng

image.thumb.png.75ee028f5b802a9a99968f8b31d4ad8d.png

He's made an APP ...

So a programming and statistics background is needed?

Okay, give me 5 - 10 years to catch up to where he is now ... lol

Link to post

or you can do as in the 'Trade Planning and Testing' thread page 1, eye ball backtest 20 trades, forward test on demo 20 trades, forward test live with minimum size 20 trades  = 60 test trades. Win rate v the fixed risk:reward (1:1.5 or 1:2) and plot on the graph will show whether a strategy is profitable or not. No tech needed just the ability to count. 

Link to post
7 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

yes, only been going a few months.

He says he's 'wasted years' testing out strategies though.  I personally don't like the MACD that much.  I like the three MA combination much better.  RSI has proven itself to be useful many times, and not too noisy.  I also like the simplicity and clarity of the German guy's book ('Ve are lookink for flegs!')

Edited by dmedin
Link to post
10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

He says he's 'wasted years' testing out strategies though.  I personally don't like the MACD that much.  I like the three MA combination much better.  RSI has proven itself to be useful many times, and not too noisy.  I also like the simplicity and clarity of the German guy's book ('Ve are lookink for flegs!')

no one cares what you like, no indicator works in isolation, what are the actual stats for the combo of indicators you are actually using systematically on each and everyone of your trades? if you don't know you then you are probably losing.

Link to post
15 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

no one cares what you like, no indicator works in isolation, what are the actual stats for the combo of indicators you are actually using systematically on each and everyone of your trades? if you don't know you then you are probably losing.

Yes, everything losses.

Link to post
12 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Yes, everything losses.

every professional trader working for a bank, an institution or a prop firm has their stats staring them in the face every single day, they are the only reality and there is no escaping them. Only dreamers messing around on forums can pretend they don't need them.

Coming up  🥳📣  a 30 min podcast on Nav Sarao the day trader who amassed a $70 million fortune day trading from his bedroom in his mom and dad's house in Houndslow (before being arrested and extradited to the US for causing the 1 trillion dollar 'Flash Crash'.

(on the Podcast thread).

Edited by Caseynotes
Link to post

Going to have to give up?

All I can see for real is men who boast of their fortunes, but they can't be making it from TA because I've never once seen a TA system work reliably?

Link to post
3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

every professional trader working for a bank, an institution or a prop firm has their stats staring them in the face every single day, they are the only reality and there is no escaping them

My 'stats' show that I have lost an enormous amount of money and that all the indicators and patterns are hopelessly unreliable, and trading short-term is particularly disastrous?

Link to post
1 minute ago, dmedin said:

My 'stats' show that I have lost an enormous amount of money and that all the indicators and patterns are hopelessly unreliable, and trading short-term is particularly disastrous?

i've only ever seen you gambling and said so a thousand times, ignored.

i've pointed the way forward and how to make written plans for the way forward, ignored.

your stats clearly showed you should not have been live trading but working on a viable plan instead.

but gambling's more fun and doesn't involve any work  weeeeeee.

up! no down! no, i mean up!

Link to post
46 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

i've only ever seen you gambling and said so a thousand times, ignored.

i've pointed the way forward and how to make written plans for the way forward, ignored.

your stats clearly showed you should not have been live trading but working on a viable plan instead.

but gambling's more fun and doesn't involve any work  weeeeeee.

up! no down! no, i mean up!

 

So let me repeat this: I have not found one single combination that works well on a short time frame.  The only method that has any promise is long-term MAs on daily charts, which is very much like buy and hold except that you can also go short.  And it means you don't trade very often, as the market is just going sideways 70% of the time.

  What am I missing?  I really, honestly don't see how you can trade 5 minutes or even hourly unless you have 'big boy's toys' ...

What is the point?

Edited by dmedin
Link to post
1 minute ago, dmedin said:

 

So let me repeat this: I have not found one single combination that works well on a short time frame.  The only method that has any promise is long-term MAs on daily charts, which is very much like buy and hold except that you can also go short.  And it means you don't trade very often, as the market is just going sideways 70% of the time.

  What am I missing?  I really, honestly don't see how you can trade 5 minutes or even hourly unless you have 'big boy's toys' ...

What is the point?

the point is you are the problem. if you are looking for a lever to pull for guaranteed wins there isn't one and if there ever was it would be arbitraged away within hours. 

The time frame doesn't make any difference except in time.

You need to spot repeatable setups and have an entry trigger as well as a clear way ahead to a rational target which is at least 1.5 times the distance of your rational stop loss.

For the above to work you need a win rate of 40% or more.

The trigger should be the conjunction of 2 or 3 indicators that filter out more losing trades than winning trades! from your setups.

If day trading your target may be just 20 points several times a day, if you are trading on a high time frame it might be 200 taking several days. 

Link to post

I'm buried beneath a blizzard of:

- Sources of information

- Differing opinions

- Supposed trading methods (hundreds)

- People trying to sell stuff

- Losing money and being wrong

- Barrage of negative and often contradictory news from Reuters

- Having to do other, non-trading stuff

 

It all feels like a huge scam really.

Maybe this is just too much and I'm too simpleminded to deal with it?

Time to run away and hide 😊-

Edited by dmedin
Link to post
3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'm buried beneath a blizzard of:

- Sources of information

- Differing opinions

- Supposed trading methods (hundreds)

- People trying to sell stuff

- Losing money and being wrong

- Barrage of negative and often contradictory news from Reuters

- Having to do other, non-trading stuff

 

It all feels like a huge scam really.

Maybe this is just too much and I'm too simpleminded to deal with it?

Time to run away and hide 😊-

you don't need any of that stuff. it takes 10 min to eyeball backtest a simple strategy over 20 trades, you've had how many months? so you could have tested a 100 thousand strategies in the time you've spent gambling.

Link to post
2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you don't need any of that stuff. it takes 10 min to eyeball backtest a simple strategy over 20 trades, you've had how many months? so you could have tested a 100 thousand strategies in the time you've spent gambling.

going back to the Trading Rush video backtests, his MACD with a ema filter over 100 trades came in at 62% win rate for a set 1:1.5 risk/reward so a winning strategy, so what happened when you eyeball backtested it over 20 trades on your preferred market and your preferred chart time frame?

(ps, I know what your answer will be)

Link to post
27 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Gonna watch them videos and re-read all me books 🤓

forget re-reading your books, once you've seen the patterns and indicators and recognise they work sometimes that's it really. Instead get to work on finding a formulae that will work for you and your markets/time frames and a good place to start is the videos. First find and so discount what doesn't work, then pick what does ok and try out on your own charts, amend and try different combos of indicators, the goal is that all important win rate v R plot on the profitability chart. 

Edited by Caseynotes
  • Like 1
Link to post
4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

going back to the Trading Rush video backtests, his MACD with a ema filter over 100 trades came in at 62% win rate for a set 1:1.5 risk/reward so a winning strategy, so what happened when you eyeball backtested it over 20 trades on your preferred market and your preferred chart time frame?

 

Thank you for finding this. I will be paying more attention to the crossover of the 20 and 60 period moving average on the 5 min chart. Not quite the 12/26 ratio of the MACD, but still. His test of the crossover of the 9 and 21 period EMA also came out as profitable as well.

US30M5.thumb.jpg.ce4ff16f6627e1b45e6b905c13a81bd5.jpg

Link to post
3 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

Thank you for finding this. I will be paying more attention to the crossover of the 20 and 60 period moving average on the 5 min chart. Not quite the 12/26 ratio of the MACD, but still. His test of the crossover of the 9 and 21 period EMA also came out as profitable as well.

US30M5.thumb.jpg.ce4ff16f6627e1b45e6b905c13a81bd5.jpg

👍 you're welcome, I think it's a great resource and a real treasure trove.

  • Great! 1
Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      13,694
    • Total Posts
      68,372
    • Total Members
      57,266
    • Most Online
      5,137
      14/01/21 09:51

    Newest Member
    les638
    Joined 20/01/21 19:12
  • Posts

    • hahaha, and now ... Dylan Davidson @dyl_davidson Holy ****, on the day Biden is sworn in, WHO advises laboratories around the world to reduce the cycle count in PCR Covid testing, which will result in fewer positives!!  WHO Information Notice for IVD Users 2020/05   If you have been reading the thread you will know the high cycle threshold in use for the PCR was a major cause of the very high ratio of false positives (50 - 80%) (if you haven't already have a listen to the 16 min podcast (linked in quoted post) where Harvard Prof explains the different uses for the PCR and the Lateral Flow tests and why we should be using the quick and cheap LFT).
    • I seem to remember reading somewhere that over a certain limit the buying and selling fees are no longer a flat fee and become a percentage of the sale/purchase. Is this true and if so what are the limits and how does one buy or sell above a certain value? I'm talking specifically about equities.  Couldn't find any information on this so any guidance would be welcome. Thanks!
    • I really trade! Here is a trade from this week - The Market is an ETF of the Nasdaq100 Index provided by ishares - CNX1 This was a 2 day Swing trade If you've read the above posts then this is a clear DOUBLE BOTTOM following all the rules mentioned in the posts above ENTRY - Entry was actually set for the high of the Inside bar but the market gapped up and opened at the GREEN horizontal line! which was fine As you can see the DB caused a classic W shape if fulfilled - 2RSI in the <25% Oversold zone = 1 high probability trade potential with target of the swing high of the long leg of the W - as you can see price hit that level this afternoon for a healthy return - This provided a 2R return, "IF" (and we have no control over this) I'd of been triggered in at the high of the Inside bar as planned rather than the gapped entry, the R:R was 4R if stop placed at the swing low or 11R if entry was high of the narrow range IB and stop was at the low of it! - Now in this trade - the intention was the 11R trade but the Gap caused a change of plan THIS IS WHY I TRADE BECAUSE OFTEN THESE TRADES COME OFF INTENDED AS PLANNED - this one didn't but it was still a half decent trade To prove the position - I won't be doing this ever again - very NEARLY got the high! You can SCAN the market EVERY DAY for NARROW RANGE bars - and then when they conform to trading method you employ they offer an ultra high probability trading opportunity with ultra high returns   
×
×
  • Create New...