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9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Ha!  Maybe I find something with more practice and learning 🤓

you've learnt nothing except that silly patterns often don't work, or indicators, or gambling.

look at what this guy has done, see all the testing he's done, see how it's done properly. that's actual work on something real that yields results you can use. go through the vids, select strategies he has found that work, try them on your own time frame, be systematic and professional 🤓

If nothing there works for you then invent your own combos and test them.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgY_eHY4NCTcRnU6CCZXWng

image.thumb.png.75ee028f5b802a9a99968f8b31d4ad8d.png

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

They've been moving down all night... looks like a lower low with a lower high in the making to me

been moving up for the last 8 hours. what will happen today I don't know so I will just hitch a ride which ever way it does move.

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5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you've learnt nothing except that silly patterns often don't work, or indicators, or gambling.

look at what this guy has done, see all the testing he's done, see how it's done properly. that's actual work on something real that yields results you can use. go through the vids, select strategies he has found that work, try them on your own time frame, be systematic and professional 🤓

If nothing there works for you then invent your own combos and test them.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgY_eHY4NCTcRnU6CCZXWng

image.thumb.png.75ee028f5b802a9a99968f8b31d4ad8d.png

He's made an APP ...

So a programming and statistics background is needed?

Okay, give me 5 - 10 years to catch up to where he is now ... lol

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or you can do as in the 'Trade Planning and Testing' thread page 1, eye ball backtest 20 trades, forward test on demo 20 trades, forward test live with minimum size 20 trades  = 60 test trades. Win rate v the fixed risk:reward (1:1.5 or 1:2) and plot on the graph will show whether a strategy is profitable or not. No tech needed just the ability to count. 

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7 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

yes, only been going a few months.

He says he's 'wasted years' testing out strategies though.  I personally don't like the MACD that much.  I like the three MA combination much better.  RSI has proven itself to be useful many times, and not too noisy.  I also like the simplicity and clarity of the German guy's book ('Ve are lookink for flegs!')

Edited by dmedin
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10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

He says he's 'wasted years' testing out strategies though.  I personally don't like the MACD that much.  I like the three MA combination much better.  RSI has proven itself to be useful many times, and not too noisy.  I also like the simplicity and clarity of the German guy's book ('Ve are lookink for flegs!')

no one cares what you like, no indicator works in isolation, what are the actual stats for the combo of indicators you are actually using systematically on each and everyone of your trades? if you don't know you then you are probably losing.

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15 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

no one cares what you like, no indicator works in isolation, what are the actual stats for the combo of indicators you are actually using systematically on each and everyone of your trades? if you don't know you then you are probably losing.

Yes, everything losses.

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12 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Yes, everything losses.

every professional trader working for a bank, an institution or a prop firm has their stats staring them in the face every single day, they are the only reality and there is no escaping them. Only dreamers messing around on forums can pretend they don't need them.

Coming up  🥳📣  a 30 min podcast on Nav Sarao the day trader who amassed a $70 million fortune day trading from his bedroom in his mom and dad's house in Houndslow (before being arrested and extradited to the US for causing the 1 trillion dollar 'Flash Crash'.

(on the Podcast thread).

Edited by Caseynotes
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3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

every professional trader working for a bank, an institution or a prop firm has their stats staring them in the face every single day, they are the only reality and there is no escaping them

My 'stats' show that I have lost an enormous amount of money and that all the indicators and patterns are hopelessly unreliable, and trading short-term is particularly disastrous?

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

My 'stats' show that I have lost an enormous amount of money and that all the indicators and patterns are hopelessly unreliable, and trading short-term is particularly disastrous?

i've only ever seen you gambling and said so a thousand times, ignored.

i've pointed the way forward and how to make written plans for the way forward, ignored.

your stats clearly showed you should not have been live trading but working on a viable plan instead.

but gambling's more fun and doesn't involve any work  weeeeeee.

up! no down! no, i mean up!

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46 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

i've only ever seen you gambling and said so a thousand times, ignored.

i've pointed the way forward and how to make written plans for the way forward, ignored.

your stats clearly showed you should not have been live trading but working on a viable plan instead.

but gambling's more fun and doesn't involve any work  weeeeeee.

up! no down! no, i mean up!

 

So let me repeat this: I have not found one single combination that works well on a short time frame.  The only method that has any promise is long-term MAs on daily charts, which is very much like buy and hold except that you can also go short.  And it means you don't trade very often, as the market is just going sideways 70% of the time.

  What am I missing?  I really, honestly don't see how you can trade 5 minutes or even hourly unless you have 'big boy's toys' ...

What is the point?

Edited by dmedin
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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

 

So let me repeat this: I have not found one single combination that works well on a short time frame.  The only method that has any promise is long-term MAs on daily charts, which is very much like buy and hold except that you can also go short.  And it means you don't trade very often, as the market is just going sideways 70% of the time.

  What am I missing?  I really, honestly don't see how you can trade 5 minutes or even hourly unless you have 'big boy's toys' ...

What is the point?

the point is you are the problem. if you are looking for a lever to pull for guaranteed wins there isn't one and if there ever was it would be arbitraged away within hours. 

The time frame doesn't make any difference except in time.

You need to spot repeatable setups and have an entry trigger as well as a clear way ahead to a rational target which is at least 1.5 times the distance of your rational stop loss.

For the above to work you need a win rate of 40% or more.

The trigger should be the conjunction of 2 or 3 indicators that filter out more losing trades than winning trades! from your setups.

If day trading your target may be just 20 points several times a day, if you are trading on a high time frame it might be 200 taking several days. 

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I'm buried beneath a blizzard of:

- Sources of information

- Differing opinions

- Supposed trading methods (hundreds)

- People trying to sell stuff

- Losing money and being wrong

- Barrage of negative and often contradictory news from Reuters

- Having to do other, non-trading stuff

 

It all feels like a huge scam really.

Maybe this is just too much and I'm too simpleminded to deal with it?

Time to run away and hide 😊-

Edited by dmedin
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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'm buried beneath a blizzard of:

- Sources of information

- Differing opinions

- Supposed trading methods (hundreds)

- People trying to sell stuff

- Losing money and being wrong

- Barrage of negative and often contradictory news from Reuters

- Having to do other, non-trading stuff

 

It all feels like a huge scam really.

Maybe this is just too much and I'm too simpleminded to deal with it?

Time to run away and hide 😊-

you don't need any of that stuff. it takes 10 min to eyeball backtest a simple strategy over 20 trades, you've had how many months? so you could have tested a 100 thousand strategies in the time you've spent gambling.

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2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you don't need any of that stuff. it takes 10 min to eyeball backtest a simple strategy over 20 trades, you've had how many months? so you could have tested a 100 thousand strategies in the time you've spent gambling.

going back to the Trading Rush video backtests, his MACD with a ema filter over 100 trades came in at 62% win rate for a set 1:1.5 risk/reward so a winning strategy, so what happened when you eyeball backtested it over 20 trades on your preferred market and your preferred chart time frame?

(ps, I know what your answer will be)

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