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Was interesting @PandaFace, even more so now as people realised Trump was only discounting the most severe response  to China (for the moment), not actually halting the 'trade war'. Bounce off th

JESS ........TWO BARKS FOR BUY     ONE BARK FOR SELL   ???

Dax pausing at the weekly R1 and Dow within striking distance of it's all time high. H1 charts;

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23 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

lol he is talking about arbitrage, taking advantage of price discrepancies between brokers.  Sounds like something out of 'The New Market Wizards' (silver arbitrage in the 70s).  Then there's the old-style floor brokers who had an edge but it was over their own clients and monkey business with options pricing.  Funny how many traders have got their 'edge' from exploiting weaknesses rather than through 'analysis'.

Edited by dmedin
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14 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

forget re-reading your books, once you've seen the patterns and indicators and recognise they work sometimes that's it really. Instead get to work on finding a formulae that will work for you and your markets/time frames and a good place to start is the videos. First find and so discount what doesn't work, then pick what does ok and try out on your own charts, amend and try different combos of indicators, the goal is that all important win rate v R plot on the profitability chart. 

10 min chart with 20 & 50 SMA, RSI and 4 hour pivots on PRT - very nice :D

Prefer those MA lines over MACD

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

lol he is talking about arbitrage, taking advantage of price discrepancies between brokers.  Sounds like something out of 'The New Market Wizards' (silver arbitrage in the 70s).  Then there's the old-style floor brokers who had an edge but it was over their own clients and monkey business with options pricing.  Funny how many traders have got their 'edge' from exploiting weaknesses rather than through 'analysis'.

yes, an interesting segment but just a fraction of a 20 year career.

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Just now, Caseynotes said:

great, what's the stats on the backtest?

Extremely positive :D Price breaks 20 SMA, holds above it, then it's above 50 SMA and it carries on for some time usually - the 50 SMA is usually a support from that point and the exit is when it's beneath 50 SMA (on a candle close underneath, without a shadow touching the line itself)

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Just now, dmedin said:

Extremely positive :D Price breaks 20 SMA, holds above it, then it's above 50 SMA and it carries on for some time usually - the 50 SMA is usually a support from that point and the exit is when it's beneath 50 SMA (on a candle close underneath, without a shadow touching the line itself)

great, what's the stats on the backtest?

  • Great! 1
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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Still calculating :D

If you stick to a fixed RR for testing purposes (1:1.5 or 1:2) then it's just a case of counting number of  wins and  then take the win % to the profitability chart.

 

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1 minute ago, _pR said:

And the markets continue to go up!

yes, betting on a earlier rather than a later end to global lockdown, the problem is for politicians to climb down without losing face. No easy task now that most Brits are too scared to leave their homes (Yougov polls) due to the initial fear mongering by er, politicians.

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1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

yes, betting on a earlier rather than a later end to global lockdown, the problem is for politicians to climb down without losing face. No easy task now that most Brits are too scared to leave their homes (Yougov polls) due to the initial fear mongering by er, politicians.

I guess I'm a W recovery believer and finding it hard to see a correlation between market news and price action at the moment. 2 days of absolute dire economic numbers out of the US and UK, yet a good number from China (if you can believe them) and news that countries are starting to loosen restrictions and the market thinks the worst is over. Surely the damage is already done and it will take a long time for economies to recover. Either that or we're in a V and I'm just bitter I didn't buy up all the stock on the 23rd of March :)

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2 minutes ago, _pR said:

I guess I'm a W recovery believer and finding it hard to see a correlation between market news and price action at the moment. 2 days of absolute dire economic numbers out of the US and UK, yet a good number from China (if you can believe them) and news that countries are starting to loosen restrictions and the market thinks the worst is over. Surely the damage is already done and it will take a long time for economies to recover. Either that or we're in a V and I'm just bitter I didn't buy up all the stock on the 23rd of March :)

yes the data news was always going to be bad from the moment they hit the switch and turned everything off. The longer it stays off the greater the number of bankruptcies and the worse things will be as more will have to start all over again.

If the on switch is hit sooner rather than later then it's a V but a W is still a possibility. 

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“If there is a silver-lining in today’s dismal jobs report, it is in the realization that the economy cannot possibly get any worse than it is right now,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “Joblessness can only diminish from this point forward as many states start reopening.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-labor-market-shatters-post-world-war-2-records-as-coronavirus-lockdowns-bite-idUKKBN22K1NS

😍

Edited by dmedin
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MAs are no use during whipsaws.    So then another piece of the puzzle has to be, 'Do I use the principle of higher highs/lows or do I try and do an Elliot Wave count'.

Alternatively, you can just buy when price > 200 SMA and sell when price < 200 SMA.  That seems to be better than most other indicators  LOL

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17 minutes ago, dmedin said:

MAs are no use during whipsaws.    So then another piece of the puzzle has to be, 'Do I use the principle of higher highs/lows or do I try and do an Elliot Wave count'.

Alternatively, you can just buy when price > 200 SMA and sell when price < 200 SMA.  That seems to be better than most other indicators  LOL

Well the lows have been defined by the 20 hour MA and the 5 hour MA suggests consolidation.

US30M15.jpg.cc2868b37f4948f74bca6b975acd8d02.jpg

Edited by AndrewS
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3 hours ago, dmedin said:

A 20 & 50 in combination with 200 seems to work better though 🧐 lol

we are not at home to Mr Seems while we are entertaining Mr Stats, Mr Seems is a fickle character who is constantly changing his mind due to prejudice and bias, not stable at all whereas Mr Stats is stolid and unbowed in the face of the wavering short term outlook.

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24 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

Well the lows have been defined by the 20 hour MA and the 5 hour MA suggests consolidation.

consolidating yes but not a bad Friday with a nfp at minus 20 million 🙂

image.thumb.png.b0a53393c215d649c669ad5800045029.png

image.thumb.png.a68d706f720c7b9d82b932c78f2c2cc3.png

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12 hours ago, dmedin said:

A 20 & 50 in combination with 200 seems to work better though 🧐 lol

Huh well.  I watched the guy's backtesting videos more carefully (slowing them down to 0.25x speed) and I like it a lot.  I used to think 'back testing' required writing a program and going through the complicated process of getting ProBacktester to simulate trades.

The problem with the MA crossovers is that you don't really just want to get out of the trade if you reach a limit, you want to let it run until price closes beneath the 20 SMA.

At least I can see some areas where I could have done better yesterday.

I've been trying out steps with a MACD, PSAR and 200 SMA combination (triple filter) on a 10 minute chart and it wins most of the time 😻 haha

Edited by dmedin
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7 hours ago, dmedin said:

The problem with the MA crossovers is that you don't really just want to get out of the trade if you reach a limit, you want to let it run until price closes beneath the 20 SMA.

 

I am looking at 5 books written by traders. One thing they have in common is that they mention specific setups or strategies and different market conditions ( range, retracement, breakout, trend, reversal). I tend not to trade crossovers or breakouts (although I do pay attention to them) but rather retracements and so I always have provisional stops and limits in mind.

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3 hours ago, AndrewS said:

I am looking at 5 books written by traders. One thing they have in common is that they mention specific setups or strategies and different market conditions ( range, retracement, breakout, trend, reversal). I tend not to trade crossovers or breakouts (although I do pay attention to them) but rather retracements and so I always have provisional stops and limits in mind.

Isn't that an overload of information?  I feel overloaded.  If it's plausible and possible to make money from a relatively simple mechanical system, why would people invest so much time and effort into Elliot Waves and all the rest?  It truly boggles the mind.

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2 hours ago, dmedin said:

Isn't that an overload of information?  I feel overloaded. 

How profitable any approach is varies considerably under different market conditions (reversal, trend, range ext) so it pays to assess what the conditions are and whether they are changing.

 

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