Jump to content

Recommended Posts

The indices just pulling back a bit after a lack of much detail from either side after the end of the US-China. Fed minutes and members reiterating a dovish shift in outlook and both Powell and Bullard to speak today (around 5:40 pm) expected to continue that theme.

All looking for short term support this morning with a view to another leg up.

Zoomed out 4 hour charts; 

image.thumb.png.89c0c792c9ae271d1d7d82c6dd8509fc.png

Share this post


Link to post

So, after a market open that was more akin to a NFP release Dax now approaching short term resistance. Will be looking for a capture of 10863 and continuation upward.

image.thumb.png.903d9e3c11c433b2976f740d77f6374c.png

Share this post


Link to post

The Dow (and others) at a significant position on the daily chart, a break to the upside will throw it back into the higher band range while a break to the downside ...

Friday not a good day for major breakouts but given the Feds new respect for the emotional turmoil of the markets and so their easing up of a systematic rate rise approach and given an easing of US-China trade tensions further upside is anticipated.

But, as ever, new news can make the markets reverse on a pin head so as always, be ready for anything. 

1420933450_US30()Daily.thumb.png.27e13ae9a02e0fe1e388a3523e4d57cf.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Very similar story to yesterday, a morning attempt to break higher failed except for Ftse which was soon reeled back in. 

Yesterday saw the break upward after the US open, same may happen again today though being Friday any move may be subdued.

5 min charts; 

image.thumb.png.dc4eaa9f27ec8c2912b3fcb65663951c.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

US session and weekly close sees Dow back up to challenge resistance leaving the others left lagging. The daily Dow shows a second day attempt to drive lower thwarted and price back to nudging this very important level.     

image.thumb.png.23cbaf51c5d12718ad283f90113139e4.png

image.thumb.png.692edb608718038df86ca33f440b30e2.png

Share this post


Link to post

Fairly flat morning session, Dow remains close to the short term highs still looking for a push into the upper band range or a deeper search for more support, looking towards the US open for a sign either way.

2025083369_US30()H4.thumb.png.962f8eb1d72b2bd7f424a3fe583109e2.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

Dow and Nikkei take a peek over the parapet, Dax and Ftse looking on curiously, could shape up to being a strong up day, let's see.

image.thumb.png.41ead8aad1de066301888d18ffe29f94.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

So after peeking over the parapet turns out the bears were waiting with a shotgun. After the fall Dow back up to take another look.

15 min chart;

84645546_US30()M15.thumb.png.2c6da9dd998ef32b53d0bc384872b0cc.png

Share this post


Link to post

Here we are again, Dow poised for a break high. Mon and Tue saw the same thing but each time the London session pushed down strongly only to see the US session send price back up to toe the line.

Another round of G20 meetings starting tomorrow. Do they ever tire of those, why on earth do they need so many?

image.thumb.png.9d85ae7c62a9bc6963f3705570dceba6.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dow pushing higher on the US open, may be getting that break higher out of consolidation that's been looking likely since Monday.

420141614_US30()H1.thumb.png.fdbc3284bc7bef4ccb93a03bf47f5e4f.png

Share this post


Link to post

DAX daily

 

For some reason i feel bullish (short term) 😰

I really dont know why😎

 

DAX 16 01 19.png

Share this post


Link to post

DAX 240 min

Tight trading range should break soon?

Hopefully to the upside?

 

 

DAX2 16 01 19.png

Edited by Kodiak
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

@Kodiak, that's what we should be looking for, tight trading ranges can only lead to one thing and that's a breakout, don't mind which way, if the bulls win price will march up, bears win then it's down. But the important thing is price must leave that old battle ground in search of new resting orders, it takes extra special effort to drag price back into a rejected large time frame trading range.

Coming up to US close and the Dow break up looks clean so far so odds in favour of Dax following suit tomorrow am.

Dow H4 and Dax H1 hour charts;

image.thumb.png.5a23caacf54ef3bf54356fa2f493d78f.png

image.thumb.png.20bbcc2c55f6ea381df876722af39633.png

Edited by Caseynotes

Share this post


Link to post

Dow looking to retest breakout, Nikkei testing support while Dax and Ftse eyes on Dow. China needing to increase stimulus, Philly Fed manu index on the calendar though US gov partial shutdown causing a backlog of delayed data.

image.thumb.png.6ec6b6fe7a1247bad6a1fc368ee1f666.png

Share this post


Link to post

The Dow break looks for continuation, Nikkei tries to secure a similar break, Dax looks to be about to make a break of it's own while Ftse has some catching up to do.

Dow got a good boost yesterday around 8:30 pm on reports Trump was contemplating rolling back China tariffs, the market didn't care those rumours were refuted less than an hour later.

image.thumb.png.635f0517decef15a38021db661cf574f.png

Share this post


Link to post

All 4 gaining with Dax breaking out past 10994, Ftse up over the 6941 resistance level and Dow waits for the US open. 

image.thumb.png.41ec497e21cebfd1735861b046bcb03d.png

Share this post


Link to post

Public holiday in the US (Martin Luther King Day) and the markets may well take a pause following the strong run up on Friday.

Daily charts;

image.thumb.png.c36f05ee68e274b061a774d3c2c61789.png

Edited by Caseynotes

Share this post


Link to post

Pullback off the highs this morning. Dow short term support 24572, Dax held at 11136 and Ftse currently at 6972 with short term support at 6954.

1 hour charts.

image.thumb.png.d544d117487a887387ad40b3884e7553.png

Share this post


Link to post

More political turmoil and China stocks sliding, others following suit. Reports that US will be formally requesting the extradition of Huawei executive Meng. 

image.thumb.png.67c81f234d784784e97e3193c2cc1e9e.png

Share this post


Link to post

A zoom out on the daily just to remind ourselves of the overall picture. Into the 4th week of up trend off the low, as is pointed out by Kyle in the APAC brief, where this new next higher low (if that's what it's to be) is placed is important.

The PA for Dow between Oct and the start of Dec was large range and the bulls have worked hard to get price back into that range, can they keep it there?

image.thumb.png.d3240340b18067122487a07dba913b3d.png

image.png.82babad3c2775bdc1e7d0825dd6b538e.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dow and Dax attempting to break up past overnight resistance after retesting the recent low this morning. Ftse may look to follow.

1 hour charts;

image.thumb.png.c4c17b1096d5a5c77bc98ac015bf1481.png

Share this post


Link to post

As mentioned this morning re Dow Oct to early Dec trading range, bulls so far keeping Dow back in the box after a bear challenge to support level, tomorrow should see a try for higher before another low test.

image.thumb.png.2bad9ce3a17afd833555dbbac771c97b.png

image.thumb.png.2b86bb4fdbbf2cd4e6601f4cd73c4d9d.png

image.png.e101492ac960779bcbbce6c3ff4f9451.png

Edited by Caseynotes

Share this post


Link to post

ECB rate decision today at 12:45 and Draghi presser at 1:30.

Dow poised midway between daily chart support and resistance (orange). Waiting for the open for direction confirmation.

1 hour charts;

image.thumb.png.038eff349c3c919dbe26d1e47c4c6cc4.png

Share this post


Link to post

German manufacturing PMI falls below 50 signalling contraction, first time since Nov 2014  (8:30 am,  49.9 vs 51.5 expected).  Dax rises on the news -  why. Because it is so fully intent on shadowing the Dow.

1 minute charts;

2035710044_GER30()M1.thumb.png.3843a7c975a8cb69def5b8128549350a.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      6,565
    • Total Posts
      29,469
    • Total Members
      39,018
    Newest Member
    Jamespound
    Joined 21/04/19 08:07
  • Posts

    • Looking at Lumber then it seems to me that it needs to hold the $30000 level. If it can defend and hold that then there could be further upside this year. If not then it could begin going down into the late $20000's. This is a personal assumption which now will need to be tested based on current price behaviour.  In my opinion, for any trend followers who are short, they must hold (even if they do not add to their positions on further price declines) until there is a clear trend reversal. This should execute their stop loss / trailing stop. In my opinion, for any trend followers who are waiting on the sidelines that do not want to short, then they must wait patiently until there is a clear trend reversal signalling / indicating a trend reversal to warrant a long trade initiation. 
    • One thing to remember is that Platinum is trading at a cheaper price than Gold. Gold and Silver have left Platinum behind since the rally started back in August of last year. It seems Platinum has had enough and wants to begin to assert some authority on the price action.  Platinum of course has several important industrial uses. I think Platinum will try and hit the $1000 dollar area as that is an important psychological price point and these rallies love nice round numbers as a target. This is seen time and time again in Commodities. Platinum is both an industrial metal and a precious metal.  Platinum is also known at the 'Rich Man's Gold'. This could lead to a reversal in pricing between Platinum and Gold. Platinum should be more expensive than Gold and so there could be a shift in speculative capital from Gold into Platinum. Platinum could attract extra volatility as Gold and Silver are more liquid markets.  I do not know what will happen in the future for Platinum prices but I shall follow the price action closely. Platinum will not follow any of my thoughts or assumptions as to what I think may happen. Platinum is not obliged to follow any of my trading strategies or plans. Platinum may not follow the path I have mapped out in my mind and nor does it have to. Platinum will do what it will do just like any other Commodity. As a trader the key is whether I can profit from the price action or not. Prices can change like the weather and so can traders views and opinions. I know from my experience that on many occasions the price action changes my views and opinions. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. If this did not happen due to stubbornness, ego or I know best attitude then it would be worth worrying about. 
    • Bitcoin is trying to break out when looking at the 'daily'. It will be interesting if it can and if it does then whether the other 'alt coins' follow.
    • Both Gold and Silver are still following my road map however both have hit an interesting juncture, which could prove to be an early turning point.  I am still favouring the Fib 50% for Gold, a long term reliable Fib level for this market (however it does not occur at a strong price action support level this time so a further deeper retrace could be on the cards) and if that happens then Silver retesting the long term supporting trend line is also on the cards. So much for that, what about the case for the current levels? Gold: Complex form retrace (EWT) completed (that is an A-B-C with internal A-B-C forms on each leg) Pos Mom Divergence at the current price point on Daily and 4 Hourly charts RSI and Stochastic both over sold Credible 1-5 wave down to current price point Bounce off the Fib 38% and associated support zone  Potential Triangle breakout and retest then rally away on 4 Hourly chart Similar on Silver, although perhaps less compelling.  I might expect a further drop on Silver with Gold holding or rallying slowly.  I am Long Gold at the Fib 38% with tight stops just below the turning point for a very low exposure trade.  For me this was worth the small loss if Gold carries on down but there may be another chance to get Long on a near term EWT 1-2.  And maybe Platinum is showing the way...  
    • GBPUSD also still following my road map.  First chance for a rally for me is the Fib 62% zone where the previous channel breakout occurred and a previous retest failed.  Chance for a test of strong support at Fib 6/78% cannot be ruled out and this pair is spiky so could easily occur.  All aligned to directional price action on EUR and AUD as well.
  • Our picks

    • Could the price of pork increase by 78% in China by 2020? - EMEA Brief 18 Apr
      The African swine fever disease has reached Southeast Asia and parts of Europe, including the world’s biggest producer of Pork, China. A prediction from the Japanese bank Nomura, is that this could cause prices to rise by 78% in China by 2020, to 33 yuan per kilogram from 18.5 yuan

      Global PMIs come into focus today, with eurozone and US figures released in the wake of a poorer Japanese number this morning. Pinterest has priced its IPO at $19 per share, above the previously indicated range but still lower than in private funding rounds two years ago.
      • 1 reply
×
×