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JESS ........TWO BARKS FOR BUY     ONE BARK FOR SELL   ???

That is the 50% retrace for  the Dow and S&P. 

It's the opposite, I don't think I'm cut out for day trading.  I still would have been better off keeping a position open from Christmas, even now.  I zoomed out to the day chart and the overall pictu

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58 minutes ago, THT said:

Trade what you SEE not what you think - markets can be irrational far longer than you can be solvent

the 76% retail traders holding short positions during a bull run for the big indices is fairly typical and roughly equates with 75% of retail traders who lose money.

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

the 76% retail traders holding short positions during a bull run for the big indices is fairly typical and roughly equates with 75% of retail traders who lose money.

Yep I hate to say it but its nice to see the retail crowd the opposite of my positions at times

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Witnessed this phenomenon in the indices for years and written several threads on it, the keenness with which retail traders try to second guess the start of a correction, no thought to wait for any confirmatory signals, just get in there and wait.

But the thing that's always bugged me is where on earth do these guys hang their stops? If the chart is continually making new highs there is no prior chart structure to lean it on. Do they even bother with one?

It's not a loss until you book the trade.

image.png.f96e2172a1898c7ffa2c40567b46a2ee.png

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Witnessed this phenomenon in the indices for years and written several threads on it, the keenness with which retail traders try to second guess the start of a correction, no thought to wait for any confirmatory signals, just get in there and wait.

But the thing that's always bugged me is where on earth do these guys hang their stops? If the chart is continually making new highs there is no prior chart structure to lean it on. Do they even bother with one?

It's not a loss until you book the trade.

image.png.f96e2172a1898c7ffa2c40567b46a2ee.png

LOL - I think most traders have done that before I certainly have until I learnt not to guess

 

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Charting the Markets: 23 April

FTSE, DAX and Dow on the back foot after Biden announcement. Dollar weakness continues to dominate FX markets. In commodities, gold looks primed for another leg higher, as Brent crude shows signs of potential impending weakness.

 

16 minute video here

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    • Hi - there's nothing wrong with having target level(s) - If it works it works Just remember as in chart 1 above, if the market is going UP then it will create a series of higher lows and higher highs and one can trail the market up by simply using the swing low points - because if the market is trending upwards it ain't going to hit a swing low point until it needs a rest, changes degree or the trend is changing That's a major law of the market (vice versa for it going  down and for sideways ranges overlapping of swings)  The blue dots on chart 1 show you the times the presumed swing low/low didn't work out
    • Thanks THT, yes well i do estimate my possible returns by estimating a target price.  Of course if the market doesn't get there then i've got several smaller rolling losses to deal with and i've not figured out yet how i make up for that if it turns out i'm wrong.  I'm currently not using a trailing stop for simplicity and the sake of not adding another variable into the mix.  However, I imagine that only having a binary situation where the market either hits the stop or target is too simplistic in a fluid market..
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