Indices

[Caseynotes]

Yes, where is the inflation. Euro zone CPI 1.4% against the 1.5% expected (released today).

Powell was too eager to continue the rate rising, normalisation and forced to back pedal, I think the odds of an expected rate cut  this year are up over 40%.

Ger manu PMI was 44.1 against 44.7 expected (deepening contraction) released this morning.

US manu ISM expected 54, release this afternoon.

[Guest Turnip230248]

A one minute trade of. the Dow.

 

[Caseynotes]

That's quite brave @Turnip230248  trading straight into the US market open as you will usually get some bouncing around at first, tends to be better to allow things to settle a bit and wait for one side to take control. So your actual long entry was well judged with the bulls showing real intent with the 3 bar spike then hammering in on the pullback.

[Guest Dow open]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

That's quite brave @Turnip230248  trading straight into the US market open as you will usually get some bouncing around at first, tends to be better to allow things to settle a bit and wait for one side to take control. So your actual long entry was well judged with the bulls showing real intent with the 3 bar spike then hammering in on the pullback.

Yes -it is better to wait. I usually do so but jumped the gun this time. Usually better to wait for a "whippy" move to play out before getting in. In fact, it usually pays to mark in hi/low of "whip" and wait for price to trade out either side. - requires patience., but usually worth it.

[Caseynotes]

Very tentative easing forward, expecting continuation today, US durable goods at 1:30, US market open 2:30.

H4 charts and Dow daily.

[Caseynotes]

15 hours ago, Guest Dow open said:

Yes -it is better to wait. I usually do so but jumped the gun this time. Usually better to wait for a "whippy" move to play out before getting in. In fact, it usually pays to mark in hi/low of "whip" and wait for price to trade out either side. - requires patience., but usually worth it.

@Turnip230248, there is a good exercise to help with recognising when the rhythm of the market is too whippy and when it has calmed and moving in a more controlled manner. I've heard it mentioned a few times before but it came up again today to remind me.

On demo zoom in as close as you can go and enlarge the price scale so the current candle on a one hour chart takes up as much of the screen as possible, get a feel for how price pulses up and down on the current candle. Try to read it and anticipate, hitting the buy or sell and exiting over and over. It's a practice exercise on market movement and not a trading style so you use it to learn to gauge the current pace of rhythm of the market in order to help with trading on your actual time frame.

[Caseynotes]

Ftse breaks up above 7370, Dow awaiting US market open, Dax stalls at 11760 (R1 pivot), and will look to Dow for direction.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

More SSI, this time from FXCM;  S&P 85% short, Dow 86% short.

Now yes of course price might just reverse here ...  but also it might not, how can 85-86% be so sure, it doesn't actually make any sense. They have all seen a red line and automatically presumed price is going to reverse on it. If I was smart money I know exactly what I'd do. 

[Caseynotes]

All the indices got a 1:00 am kick up on a FT report that the US/China trade talks have made real progress.

H1 charts plus the S&P daily this time which has surged ahead into clear space.

[Caseynotes]

Dax gets a boost from latest EU PMI data while Ftse takes a hit with lower than expected Services PMI.

[Caseynotes]

Dow and S&P setting up for a strong US market open at 2:30pm.

The API forerunner nfp today at 1:15pm 184K forecast. The US non-manu PMI at 3:00pm, 58.1 forecast.

Dow daily with monthly pivots thrown in for good measure.

[Caseynotes]

ADP nfp a miss at only 129k

 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

Dax made the running yesterday while the others keep in touch with recent highs. After the good news on the trade talks the inevitable downer that one major sticking point was China's insistence that all tariffs be removed before signing.

Some initial sell off in Dax on the European open this morning but with all 4 posting green daily candles yesterday starting today anticipating continuation. 

H4 charts with S&P daily. 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting survey results from Bloomburg on interest rate expectations up to Q4 2020.

A/ not much change. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-04/central-bankers-are-hitting-the-pause-button

[Caseynotes]

Was just comparing the SSI data from FXCM with the COT and the Dow daily chart.

Both the FXCM and COT confer that small speculators and retail (sameish) decided that the week starting  2nd of Jan was the time to go short on the Dow and have been flogging that horse ever since.

Large speculators were reducing there long exposure through Jan but started piling back in increasing long exposure again from the start of Feb, but not retail, oh no, they knew better. Gulp. 

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax really wants to push higher but being held back by Dow.

1 min Dax with 1 min Dow (Dow 100 ema only), once the Dow ema heads upward Dax should be away.

[Caseynotes]

Dax backs down after topping yesterday's high, Dow trying to rise after a slow start and special guest index AUS200 hovers around it's daily chart support level.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

The indices got a boost overnight from China president Xi reporting the trade talks are going well (he does't usually comment). 

US NFP today 1:30 and the word on the street is it could be a big number after last months dismal 20k which was due to a freezing Feb. The mid-week ADP was 129k and the forecast for today is 172k.

Presenting a guest appearance in the charts today, the AUS 200. 

Daily charts and all, except the AUS, are itching to go higher.

[Guest DOW heading to 27600]

[phillo]

this has been amazing .....

[phillo]

[Caseynotes]

Interesting times, Dow and S&P fast approaching all time highs but also entering into triple top territory.

The crowd are all sitting on shorts so the contrarian is obviously looking hard at going long.

A US/China deal could be immanent (as it has been for the last 6 months, meh) and then there is the inverted yield curve *bites nails*.

But here's an interesting chart, ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA  "Historically, a recession begins when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that right now. So, this cycle should not end any time soon."

This would make sense as high US GDP and low CPI is not recession territory, the opposite in fact.

As ever when looking for a longer term trade price approaching boundaries is not the time to jump in, the time to jump in is when price is leaving the boundary, whichever direction that might be.

 

 

  

[Caseynotes]

Minimal movement over the weekend, just sitting watching those highs. Not much on the calendar til Wednesday when there is the ECB rate decision and mon pol statement and in the evening the Fed minutes from the last meeting.

Daily charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Ftse putting in bullish engulfing bars on the European open 1 hour chart.

[Caseynotes]

On the US open Dow tests 26241 (red) for support which was resistance back in  early Fed as well as the beginning of this month. Ftse and Dax keeping in touch with recent highs, they just needs Dow to kick up.

H4 charts; 

[Caseynotes]

Not much on the calendar again today, markets still in wait mode. Time again for the 'this is the top' chart for all those who have been waiting so patiently for over 3 years for a bear market.

[Caseynotes]

Dow in a bit of a flash crash and drops 150 points after dropping through 26241, may find support here at 26100.

[Caseynotes]

Trump again times trade war threats just as the markets close in on the highs, this time taking aim at the EU who were very quick to threaten stiff retaliation on any US action. 

Dow looking to build on the base at 26100.

UK GDP and manu prod at 9:30, EU rate decision and mon pol statement at 12:45 with presser at 1:30 and last fed mtg minutes at 7:00 pm.

[Caseynotes]

Dow not able to break up through the daily pivot this morning is holding Dax back.

H1 charts;

 

[Caseynotes]

Dow looks keen to retest 26100 on the US market open but Dax and Ftse not showing much interest in following

H1 charts;