Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Yes, where is the inflation. Euro zone CPI 1.4% against the 1.5% expected (released today).

Powell was too eager to continue the rate rising, normalisation and forced to back pedal, I think the odds of an expected rate cut  this year are up over 40%.

Ger manu PMI was 44.1 against 44.7 expected (deepening contraction) released this morning.

US manu ISM expected 54, release this afternoon.

Share this post


Link to post

That's quite brave @Turnip230248  trading straight into the US market open as you will usually get some bouncing around at first, tends to be better to allow things to settle a bit and wait for one side to take control. So your actual long entry was well judged with the bulls showing real intent with the 3 bar spike then hammering in on the pullback.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Guest Dow open
2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

That's quite brave @Turnip230248  trading straight into the US market open as you will usually get some bouncing around at first, tends to be better to allow things to settle a bit and wait for one side to take control. So your actual long entry was well judged with the bulls showing real intent with the 3 bar spike then hammering in on the pullback.

Yes -it is better to wait. I usually do so but jumped the gun this time. Usually better to wait for a "whippy" move to play out before getting in. In fact, it usually pays to mark in hi/low of "whip" and wait for price to trade out either side. - requires patience., but usually worth it.

Share this post


Link to post

Very tentative easing forward, expecting continuation today, US durable goods at 1:30, US market open 2:30.

H4 charts and Dow daily.

image.thumb.png.4416c6deb1fbb05e6dc47f881ea1f05b.png

image.thumb.png.fdeacd8fefe483185867fc901df670db.png

Share this post


Link to post
15 hours ago, Guest Dow open said:

Yes -it is better to wait. I usually do so but jumped the gun this time. Usually better to wait for a "whippy" move to play out before getting in. In fact, it usually pays to mark in hi/low of "whip" and wait for price to trade out either side. - requires patience., but usually worth it.

@Turnip230248, there is a good exercise to help with recognising when the rhythm of the market is too whippy and when it has calmed and moving in a more controlled manner. I've heard it mentioned a few times before but it came up again today to remind me.

On demo zoom in as close as you can go and enlarge the price scale so the current candle on a one hour chart takes up as much of the screen as possible, get a feel for how price pulses up and down on the current candle. Try to read it and anticipate, hitting the buy or sell and exiting over and over. It's a practice exercise on market movement and not a trading style so you use it to learn to gauge the current pace of rhythm of the market in order to help with trading on your actual time frame.

Share this post


Link to post

Ftse breaks up above 7370, Dow awaiting US market open, Dax stalls at 11760 (R1 pivot), and will look to Dow for direction.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.8da464d5b00f7fbf330d209b7926d68c.png

Share this post


Link to post

More SSI, this time from FXCM;  S&P 85% short, Dow 86% short.

Now yes of course price might just reverse here ...  but also it might not, how can 85-86% be so sure, it doesn't actually make any sense. They have all seen a red line and automatically presumed price is going to reverse on it. If I was smart money I know exactly what I'd do. 

fxcm.thumb.PNG.4e68efb2671d312ffb421dc9f481782a.PNGfxcm1.thumb.PNG.fa3de5910c2a15ea3a70cedb1891c9ce.PNG

  • Thought provoking 1

Share this post


Link to post

All the indices got a 1:00 am kick up on a FT report that the US/China trade talks have made real progress.

H1 charts plus the S&P daily this time which has surged ahead into clear space.

image.thumb.png.d054467ca11666d770c1ed6936fc10d0.png

image.thumb.png.3e8a32dcde90d8d8c4a9481ce7e31c79.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax gets a boost from latest EU PMI data while Ftse takes a hit with lower than expected Services PMI.

image.png.a64492c2a81926ef0041e9dae07fbd86.png

image.thumb.png.6b1acffd85e782ac192e2a2260265f60.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dow and S&P setting up for a strong US market open at 2:30pm.

The API forerunner nfp today at 1:15pm 184K forecast. The US non-manu PMI at 3:00pm, 58.1 forecast.

Dow daily with monthly pivots thrown in for good measure.

image.thumb.png.39e6ad1d70b2f4f8b77772658b3edc49.png

Share this post


Link to post

ADP nfp a miss at only 129k

 

 

Edited by Caseynotes

Share this post


Link to post

Dax made the running yesterday while the others keep in touch with recent highs. After the good news on the trade talks the inevitable downer that one major sticking point was China's insistence that all tariffs be removed before signing.

Some initial sell off in Dax on the European open this morning but with all 4 posting green daily candles yesterday starting today anticipating continuation. 

H4 charts with S&P daily. 

image.thumb.png.ad4043a86084b9adedd9d16631718ce7.png

930510101_SPX500()Daily.thumb.png.6670acaece052cd06933f8830b1a717c.png

Share this post


Link to post

Was just comparing the SSI data from FXCM with the COT and the Dow daily chart.

Both the FXCM and COT confer that small speculators and retail (sameish) decided that the week starting  2nd of Jan was the time to go short on the Dow and have been flogging that horse ever since.

Large speculators were reducing there long exposure through Jan but started piling back in increasing long exposure again from the start of Feb, but not retail, oh no, they knew better. Gulp. 

image.png.700ca5d5af5b72d1fa1c38ca654e49b1.png

image.png.b1d65ab8391c94e60e512f593dc60b9d.png

image.thumb.png.2aa244a68c32bb4d62b678437a8199a1.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

Dax really wants to push higher but being held back by Dow.

1 min Dax with 1 min Dow (Dow 100 ema only), once the Dow ema heads upward Dax should be away.

image.thumb.png.404ae2dc07246d19219bf58fb569b20e.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Dax backs down after topping yesterday's high, Dow trying to rise after a slow start and special guest index AUS200 hovers around it's daily chart support level.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.135e5e81bef014137849e555e6ec896e.png

Share this post


Link to post

The indices got a boost overnight from China president Xi reporting the trade talks are going well (he does't usually comment). 

US NFP today 1:30 and the word on the street is it could be a big number after last months dismal 20k which was due to a freezing Feb. The mid-week ADP was 129k and the forecast for today is 172k.

Presenting a guest appearance in the charts today, the AUS 200. 

Daily charts and all, except the AUS, are itching to go higher.

image.thumb.png.8c54a120e9f878037077baeb54c4683e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Guest DOW heading to 27600

Share this post


Link to post

Interesting times, Dow and S&P fast approaching all time highs but also entering into triple top territory.

image.png.133131f76a196cd29d562b9ab3e93a34.png

The crowd are all sitting on shorts so the contrarian is obviously looking hard at going long.

A US/China deal could be immanent (as it has been for the last 6 months, meh) and then there is the inverted yield curve *bites nails*.

But here's an interesting chart, ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA  "Historically, a recession begins when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that right now. So, this cycle should not end any time soon."

This would make sense as high US GDP and low CPI is not recession territory, the opposite in fact.

image.thumb.png.974e32958cabd487909d1f48623d7849.png

As ever when looking for a longer term trade price approaching boundaries is not the time to jump in, the time to jump in is when price is leaving the boundary, whichever direction that might be.

image.thumb.png.6cc9ddc90304b0aa14c526e348067c52.png

 

 

  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Minimal movement over the weekend, just sitting watching those highs. Not much on the calendar til Wednesday when there is the ECB rate decision and mon pol statement and in the evening the Fed minutes from the last meeting.

Daily charts;

image.thumb.png.9106e9100fd5c37938e0c76fe58dd51a.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax and Ftse putting in bullish engulfing bars on the European open 1 hour chart.

image.thumb.png.6d7fc6333f161853b434dbe34734f50c.png

image.thumb.png.8153ebc526eea6ebfa357ed3619b1434.png

Share this post


Link to post

On the US open Dow tests 26241 (red) for support which was resistance back in  early Fed as well as the beginning of this month. Ftse and Dax keeping in touch with recent highs, they just needs Dow to kick up.

H4 charts; 

image.thumb.png.f3897e3db273fbdc4bac45edacf51504.png

Share this post


Link to post

Not much on the calendar again today, markets still in wait mode. Time again for the 'this is the top' chart for all those who have been waiting so patiently for over 3 years for a bear market.

image.thumb.png.c6e8bcec7475eafed31293e908c0539e.png

1471321113_TheTop1.thumb.PNG.652b8d616e92f536bf07679752a191f5.PNG

Share this post


Link to post

Dow in a bit of a flash crash and drops 150 points after dropping through 26241, may find support here at 26100.

image.thumb.png.9ed719de3fac8df35bf1c4064f79a57c.png

image.thumb.png.bf7746adb2a5a83a83c8851767438d07.png

Share this post


Link to post

Trump again times trade war threats just as the markets close in on the highs, this time taking aim at the EU who were very quick to threaten stiff retaliation on any US action. 

Dow looking to build on the base at 26100.

UK GDP and manu prod at 9:30, EU rate decision and mon pol statement at 12:45 with presser at 1:30 and last fed mtg minutes at 7:00 pm.

image.thumb.png.eb68559155e74ff9d0c72da85f483b37.png

image.thumb.png.9a5e9e6e73ea25459e6d1a7e5a6a46b3.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dow not able to break up through the daily pivot this morning is holding Dax back.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.243442c700391baf944772c0ffc46482.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

Dow looks keen to retest 26100 on the US market open but Dax and Ftse not showing much interest in following

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.6178a7051c5bf23ff85c9add35f84e2b.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      11,522
    • Total Posts
      58,684
    • Total Members
      77,705
    Newest Member
    JackTurnham
    Joined 13/07/20 11:09
  • Posts

    • Read an interesting article on Yahoo finance which showed the majority of gains in the Nasdaq is down to the big 6 tech firms and without them there would have been no gain in the Nasdaq since 2016 and the majority of movement is down to the price of 6 companies. It would appear, in the search for dividend and profit everyone has opted to buy Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Netflix, as a herd reaction. No one has stopped to question whether they are over-bought at all, or if they may have questioned that premise, the thought would have been quickly cast asunder in the wake of evidence to the contrary (prices of the big 6 only bulldozing up). This may have lead to a false narrative, where we may consider everything is rosy in the garden of equities and everything  will all be alright soon, as long as the big 6 keep on growing, even if much other evidence suggests the contrary. Which it is. From employment to housing arrears, from relationships with allies and perceived foes to actual communal transmission of Covid 19. From stratospheric  Fed and govt debt to trade imbalance, from irrational exuberance to actually facing reality now. Instead of relentless optimism, relentless realism.  It would appear we are in for another week of exuberance. The sun is shining, people are out enjoying themselves and one could be forgiven for thinking the crisis is over and we can all go back to doing exactly what we were doing before this inconvenience struck. Reassessment can be inconvenient too. No one likes to be wrong, (though we often are). Least of all the Potus, who's principle motivation may not be the well being and good health of his people, more the well being of the economy, more specifically the price of equity. He encourages more exuberance even when evidence may suggest otherwise.  It is earnings season for equities, the reports, many of  which would make grim reading in more sober times, will be ignored for even the merest hint that the future will be brighter or it wont get any worse, from a reaction to Remdesivir (which appears to improve more than it harms, improves 9 harms 3...a litigation lawyers dream) to any glimmer of positive data.  Then one looks at the price of Tesla and realise the equity markets really have gone potty. Look at Tesla's numbers and its price makes no sense at all. Herd irrational exuberance in a nutshell. VW and Toyota p/e  far less than 10, now look at Tesla and you know its share price is on steroids and anything else the doctor will prescribe.  I recently drove to the New Forest to visit a good friend. It is normally a patience sapping experience, but left on Friday 7 pm and arrived at 9;10 pm in record breaking totally unbelievable 2 hours 10 minutes. In July. Normally, it takes at least 3 hours. Roads are still quiet. Which leads me to question again the premise of a "V" shaped recovery  and consider whether those that suggested a "V" shaped recovery actually have very poor hand writing and their version of a V more closely resembles a flattish tick or even a very sloppy W. I digress, the point being there has to come a time when the US has to take off its rose tinted glasses and see the reality of Now for what it is, rather than wishing it all away for a brighter tomorrow. Might not happen this week as equities push higher but you can't escape it forever. Can you?  
    • nearly, volume profile. Just a new one I'm checking out.
    • Market profile on the left?  😯
×
×