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I'm not hood at posting graphs, btw @Caseynotes where do you get these pics from. It doesn't look like IG Web interface.

On the other hand, with DAX failing to get above weekly 100 MA and potential head and shoulders forming on a daily chart I see it going downwards this week to about 11845 mark. EUR consumers don't look confident either. Any thoughts?

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DAX  I guess we all have that line

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2 hours ago, RichardSmith said:

On the other hand, with DAX failing to get above weekly 100 MA and potential head and shoulders forming on a daily chart I see it going downwards this week to about 11845 mark. EUR consumers don't look confident either. Any thoughts?

Certainly maybe Richard, there should be support around that level if Dax does reverse but I would myself expect continuation upward if the US indices break through to the upside though.

Many like to pick and choose, mix and match, indicators, patterns and time frames to suit our bias, you see such posted all the time, but going down that road leads to madness because we will always be able to find many combos that will support whatever bias we have.

Looking at the weekly 100 MA, price last week put in a powerful bull bar right to it and with only one day trading this week can't really say it's failed there yet. I can't really see a forming H&S pattern on the daily (see how to post a chart below), and I wouldn't worry about EU consumers as all the Dax companies are big multi-nationals, so I suspect Dax will follow the US indices upward if they break, riding on the back of increasing risk-on sentiment.

My charts are MT4 charts, to post IG charts click on the 3 dots (options) tab then 'export chart' and a copy of the on-screen chart will be placed in your download folder (without any personal info).  

 

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S&P closing in on the 'All Time High', still a couple of hours to go before the US market close, bears seem to be hibernating (hiding), difficult to see how this level will remain standing.

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Not sure which screen Kyle was looking at on the APAC brief but Dow not quite at the ATH. Worryingly this is usually about the time Trump chooses to ratchet up the trade war threats though it might be different this time, both sides making noises the final deal is near.

Dow currently bouncing up off the daily pivot looking to target R1 at 26750.

Dax has just tested S1 and heading back up to the pivot at 12231 with R1 beyond that at 12282. 

As ever we may see some initial jockeying on market open but the overall trend remains bullish.

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Dow slow away having insisted on another test of the pivot while Dax was happily steering for R1 when got a nasty shock from the poor ifo business climate data at 9 am. Looks to be getting back into it's stride again now though. 

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Dow failed at 26700 and once again down to retest the pivot on the US open, Dax pulls back down to test R1, see if they hold.

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So, at end of day Dax found support at R1 while Dow broke down to find support at S1 and in the meantime USD finally broke out of long term consolidation;

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US durable goods data at 1:30 pm today. Dow and S&P still loitering just under the ATHs losing momentum but not looking too concerned, still waiting for a push.

On the H1 Dow working it's way up to the new daily pivot around 26600 and Dax looking up at a first target of yesterday's high at 12350.

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Dow, after testing S1 and working it's way back up just took a very sudden dive down to S2 coinciding with the 3M Q1 earnings release miss. Dax heading back down to the pivot in sympathy 😢

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Dax and Dow on their way back up having got over the earnings upset (see post above). Dax back above the pivot and Dow back above S1

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Still in bullish mode Dow tested the daily chart support level 26300 yesterday which held so should now see a test of resistance though as seen yesterday corporate earnings jitters can cause lively chart action. Also today at 1:30 pm is the US Advance GDP figure which may also cause a stir.

Dax mid way between daily support and resistance and as yesterday will be looking to the Dow for direction.

Ftse's had 2 down days following Dow but sights still on the recent high at 7527.

Nikkei has held firm overnight and looking poised for a move higher.

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Interesting day so far, very good beat on the US GDP data release but the indices not able to rally while gold is up and oil is down 1 hour into the US market session.

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Was looking at this again as what is written above was a few hour before US market close. It was curious that on a day where US GDP came in at 3.2 beating the 2.2 expected that there was no rally and then seeing oil down and gold up was more conducive to a risk-off environment than risk-on.

So then looking at the charts again after US market close was another surprise. On a Friday nearing end of session you expect to see the markets trail off as positions get closed out before the weekend. But looking at the S&P there was the largest H1 candle of the day buying up to the all time high.

Why would anyone do that? It's worth thinking about as a possible clue for the week ahead. Worth mentioning also at this point that the week ahead contains the FOMC mtg, NFP numbers and the ISM PMI data.

So the bulls are all gathered at a pretty flimsy looking gate, they have been sniffing around it for a number of days now and can't seem to elicit any kind of meaningful response from the bears, where are they? If they are anywhere it should be here.    

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Already seeing unusual activity in the weekend Dow, the chart shows the previous 4 weekends of fairly typical minor movement, the red vertical lines are the 4:00 am Sat weekend opening candle on this H4 chart, note the comparatively over sized 8:00 am bull candle for this morning. Could be interesting keeping an eye on this chart in the run up to the IG market open proper on Sunday evening.

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On ‎13‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 15:16, elle said:

OPEX this coming week - ATH coming  

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A different view, but that trend line looks interesting

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Just an update on retail ('the crowd') positions in the indices and they remain short across the board, the contrarian bias therefore remains long. 

How much short? A/ a lot. S&P 70%, Naz 76%, Dow 64%.

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S&P;

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And to emphasise just what 'the crowd' are shorting here is the daily chart of the S&P again.

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Many like to blame brokers for 'the crowd' having a high loss rate, but as I pointed out in the SSI thread 'the crowd' have been shorting this since January. Eventually one day they will be right but will that ever make up for all the days (years in the case of 'Permabears') when they were wrong. OF COURSE NOT.

Boundaries are interesting places to trade but the idea is to trade as price is finished with them and is leaving (whichever direction that may be), not when price is heading in to test them.  

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Dax poised to push higher from the open while Dow needs to move up to and break recent resistance at 26699. Ftse still lingering close to recent support so first goal is to get back to 7527. Hopefully Nikkei is leading the way as it pops up above the recent resistance of 22371.

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On ‎27‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 14:44, elle said:

A different view, but that trend line looks interesting

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ATH  made 

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1 hour ago, elle said:

 

Do like the weekly with the 100 sma plus the possibility of 14% gain after 1 year and 25% at 2 year.

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Although the long-term charts remain bullish the short and medium term are looking more neutral with the failure to find the push to really get over and clear of the highs. S&P has ducked back under long-term resistance again this morning and there is still to come this week the FOMC meet tomorrow and NFP on Friday.

When more neutral the probability of level rejection starts to equal that of breakouts so need to keep in mind fading the rejected levels as well as looking for breakouts.

Currently Dow is sitting around the daily pivot with R1 around 26600 and S1 at 26500.

Dax has just tested and rejected the underside of the pivot and may head for S1 at 12265 while R1 is up at 12370.

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As an FYI there's a relatively large div of 16.05 points coming out of CAC at the cash close (16:30 bst) today. Ex-div date is actually not until the 2nd of May, however due to the public holiday tomorrow we will be posting it today. Companies reporting are: Peugeot SA, Kering SA and AXA SA.
 

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Thanks James, also worth pointing out tomorrow is May Day public holiday for Swizz, Ger, France and Italy. 

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A check of the S&P and it's sticking to the highs despite a strong attempt to push down today, it was just bought back up without too much trouble and the advance - decline ratio still looks healthy. Nothing yet to push it on higher but defending any attempt to dislodge from it's present position and try lower. 

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Very good Apple earning release gives the US indices a lift just after US session close yesterday.

Bank holiday for Swiss, Germany, France and Italy. Public holiday for JPY and China.

1:15 pm US ADP nfp data.  3:00 pm US ism PMI data.  7:00 pm US FOMC statement with presser at 7:30.

Could be a whirlygig fomc with Trump calling for a rate cut and more QE while the Fed is looking the other way.

S&P continues into all time high country with Dow following close behind.

Some time ago I wrote that this China trade dispute may have some way to go as the themes run a lot deeper than just soybean imports, I've included a interview with Steve Bannon from last month that explains what's going on under the surface and the bigger game Trump is playing.

 

Weekly charts and Dow closing in on it's all time high while Dax, Ftse and Nikkei all have their own ATH in sight.

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The H1 S&P looking a little tired after the recent strong push may well rest up til FOMC this evening.

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Ftse taking a bit of a beating straight from the off. PMIs at 9:30 were not too bad. Nothing else is moving, dax trading in a 10 point range for 3 hours.

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Ftse continues to have a bad day heading down to S2 having looked to secure support earlier at S1.

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    • Going back to my FTSE analysis I see things as follows: 2 scenarios present themselves, other than fresh ATHs that is: 1) the move down to the turn on Thursday was a wave 1 (blue) off a larger scale wave 2 (purple) that should retrace, maybe in a complex fashion with a lot of whip saw price action maybe not, let's see; 2) the recent rally and drop to a new low was a 1-2 (red), which indicates a much stronger leg down is immanent. The #2 scenario would only be valid if price holds below the previous high (circa 7300).  I favour the #1 scenario. There was PMD on the 4H chart at wave 1 (blue), which suggests this is a turning point.  Also the 4H chart shows a 1-5 wave down to the 1 blue, which would be motive and suggests a trend change to the bearish side. There was strong NMD at wave 2 (Purple) which is consistent with a large scale retrace move. Just as with the US large caps, after the stop and turn up there was a sharp retrace drop to the Fib 76/78% zone before the current rally.  As the FTSE was in out of hours at the end of the week this market has not rallied as hard as the US markets.  Also we may yet see fresh ATHs on US large caps while the FTSE100 only puts in a counter trend rally. If we do see fresh ATHs on US large caps and only a retrace on FTSE and probably Dax and Nikkei as well then comparing these markets will be instructive for calling that top on US large caps.  We may, alternatively, see only a retrace on US large caps too if the top of the market in already in. Conclusion: we can anticipate a bullish period on all major indices BUT should guard against a quick reversal on FTSE 100 that would set up scenario #2.  Either way this market looks to have topped out so the coming months though to the Autumn will be critical to deciding things on all indices, and likely quite a few other markets. I am Long the FTSE 100, coincident with my Dow Longs and will swing this up for now but my bearish bias for the long term will keep we watchful for a break down of this rally and I will not be pyramiding this one, far too risky until things are resolved.
    • "....more broadly we have seen currency wars but these have not really captured the imagination of the MSM yet" Actually I'd argue we have had currency wars for some years already. History shows it goes in the following order: Currency war, Trade war, War. (Regrettably).  If I recall correctly the market falls of early 2015 (about 20% down) were blamed on Yuan being devalued by Chinese manipulation. Way before Trump! "....we suddenly get a super massive set of central bank policies that drop rates to zero" Again I'd say that has been going on for some years. Arguably you could say about 35 years since the Plaza Accord. Once fiat became unaccountable (no gold standard) the politicians proceeded to spend, spend spend =debt,debt,debt. Expect MMT  (US Democrats pushing modern monetary theory) to allow them to continue in that vein. Again history says these currencies will all eventually disappear, like species, approx 95% no longer exist.  Broadly I agree with what you say. The present financial system is critically sick that's for sure. It has propped up assets with huge doses of QE and zero rate interest policy (expect more of that when the ECB meets next month). You are correct about the size of stock markets. If the global market was a horse the bond market would be three legs of it! I digress.... However, if you are faced with massive debts then here are your options: 1) Default - Argentinian/Zimbabwe style. Not likely, at least until all other options tried - as that's the end game. 2) Grow the economy at a fast enough rate to meet and exceed future repayment obligations. In a global low anaemic growth environment? Unlikely. 3) Inflate like mad. It's the only viable option. You could, reasonably say, that after 3 massive QE sessions and ZIRP and now  NIRP that deflation is winning. Arguably it's all been a waste of time / money. Where's the kitchen sink? Presumably more of the same and then some helicopter money? It seems to me that this is more in line with Japan (targeted 10yr bond rate = 0%) which someone said in the 90s was  "...the dress rehearsal. The rest of the world will be the main event". Trying to get inflation without destroying the USD global reserve status is unlikely in my opinion and you can't help but feel that some sort of Bretton Woods global RESET will eventually emerge. It's certainly what Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Turkey etc are angling for.....and their central banks have been big buyers of bullion recently. That's why I'd recommend holding gold. Not as a trading strategy (which is what I appreciate this forum is). Nice sharing these thoughts with you>
    • So it looks like my crazy set of channels on the Daily chart is still holding well.  The breakout of the last channel line, which coincides with a nice zone of lateral S/R was retested but failed as I noted in my previous post.  I got Short off an initial rejection from this zone and Resistance line with a tight stop but price never came back so nicely in on a couple of Short positions and stop protected at BE.  Price moved back through the monthly lower channel line (purple) and put in a quick daily candle failed retest and dropped away.  It is possible we could see another retest of this resistance zone before any further move but a break below the 5760 level would be indicative that the Bear has resumed and obviously a break of the previous low around the $56 mark would once again bring $50 into focus.  
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