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US durable goods data at 1:30 pm today. Dow and S&P still loitering just under the ATHs losing momentum but not looking too concerned, still waiting for a push.

On the H1 Dow working it's way up to the new daily pivot around 26600 and Dax looking up at a first target of yesterday's high at 12350.

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Dax pausing at the weekly R1 and Dow within striking distance of it's all time high. H1 charts;

That is the 50% retrace for  the Dow and S&P. 

I use only 2 MAs as a filter (used the same settings long time) Had some time over and did a backtest buy sell on cross I used a trailing stop and optimized the trailing stop only and for th

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Still in bullish mode Dow tested the daily chart support level 26300 yesterday which held so should now see a test of resistance though as seen yesterday corporate earnings jitters can cause lively chart action. Also today at 1:30 pm is the US Advance GDP figure which may also cause a stir.

Dax mid way between daily support and resistance and as yesterday will be looking to the Dow for direction.

Ftse's had 2 down days following Dow but sights still on the recent high at 7527.

Nikkei has held firm overnight and looking poised for a move higher.

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Was looking at this again as what is written above was a few hour before US market close. It was curious that on a day where US GDP came in at 3.2 beating the 2.2 expected that there was no rally and then seeing oil down and gold up was more conducive to a risk-off environment than risk-on.

So then looking at the charts again after US market close was another surprise. On a Friday nearing end of session you expect to see the markets trail off as positions get closed out before the weekend. But looking at the S&P there was the largest H1 candle of the day buying up to the all time high.

Why would anyone do that? It's worth thinking about as a possible clue for the week ahead. Worth mentioning also at this point that the week ahead contains the FOMC mtg, NFP numbers and the ISM PMI data.

So the bulls are all gathered at a pretty flimsy looking gate, they have been sniffing around it for a number of days now and can't seem to elicit any kind of meaningful response from the bears, where are they? If they are anywhere it should be here.    

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Already seeing unusual activity in the weekend Dow, the chart shows the previous 4 weekends of fairly typical minor movement, the red vertical lines are the 4:00 am Sat weekend opening candle on this H4 chart, note the comparatively over sized 8:00 am bull candle for this morning. Could be interesting keeping an eye on this chart in the run up to the IG market open proper on Sunday evening.

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Just an update on retail ('the crowd') positions in the indices and they remain short across the board, the contrarian bias therefore remains long. 

How much short? A/ a lot. S&P 70%, Naz 76%, Dow 64%.

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S&P;

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And to emphasise just what 'the crowd' are shorting here is the daily chart of the S&P again.

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Many like to blame brokers for 'the crowd' having a high loss rate, but as I pointed out in the SSI thread 'the crowd' have been shorting this since January. Eventually one day they will be right but will that ever make up for all the days (years in the case of 'Permabears') when they were wrong. OF COURSE NOT.

Boundaries are interesting places to trade but the idea is to trade as price is finished with them and is leaving (whichever direction that may be), not when price is heading in to test them.  

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Dax poised to push higher from the open while Dow needs to move up to and break recent resistance at 26699. Ftse still lingering close to recent support so first goal is to get back to 7527. Hopefully Nikkei is leading the way as it pops up above the recent resistance of 22371.

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Although the long-term charts remain bullish the short and medium term are looking more neutral with the failure to find the push to really get over and clear of the highs. S&P has ducked back under long-term resistance again this morning and there is still to come this week the FOMC meet tomorrow and NFP on Friday.

When more neutral the probability of level rejection starts to equal that of breakouts so need to keep in mind fading the rejected levels as well as looking for breakouts.

Currently Dow is sitting around the daily pivot with R1 around 26600 and S1 at 26500.

Dax has just tested and rejected the underside of the pivot and may head for S1 at 12265 while R1 is up at 12370.

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As an FYI there's a relatively large div of 16.05 points coming out of CAC at the cash close (16:30 bst) today. Ex-div date is actually not until the 2nd of May, however due to the public holiday tomorrow we will be posting it today. Companies reporting are: Peugeot SA, Kering SA and AXA SA.
 

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A check of the S&P and it's sticking to the highs despite a strong attempt to push down today, it was just bought back up without too much trouble and the advance - decline ratio still looks healthy. Nothing yet to push it on higher but defending any attempt to dislodge from it's present position and try lower. 

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Very good Apple earning release gives the US indices a lift just after US session close yesterday.

Bank holiday for Swiss, Germany, France and Italy. Public holiday for JPY and China.

1:15 pm US ADP nfp data.  3:00 pm US ism PMI data.  7:00 pm US FOMC statement with presser at 7:30.

Could be a whirlygig fomc with Trump calling for a rate cut and more QE while the Fed is looking the other way.

S&P continues into all time high country with Dow following close behind.

Some time ago I wrote that this China trade dispute may have some way to go as the themes run a lot deeper than just soybean imports, I've included a interview with Steve Bannon from last month that explains what's going on under the surface and the bigger game Trump is playing.

 

Weekly charts and Dow closing in on it's all time high while Dax, Ftse and Nikkei all have their own ATH in sight.

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The H1 S&P looking a little tired after the recent strong push may well rest up til FOMC this evening.

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Poor old Powell, even when he stands stock still he can't get it right.

Ger manu PMI at 8:55 and Eur PMI at 9:00 today. BoE rate decision and mon pol statement at 12:00 and the presser at 12:30.

Dow looks to have strong support immediately under as does Dax but Ftse looks a bit vulnerable, this 7351 is a previous high from March 21st which may serve.

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So, after a large drop down yesterday and today for the indices taking price back down to those of 2 weeks ago the S&P has found support at 2900 and has hoisted itself back up above the 2912 key support level with just under an hour to go before the US market close.

H4 chart.

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Looking at the daily charts and the correction of the last 2 days doesn't look too dramatic but today should be telling with the NFP data this afternoon.

9:30 GB services PMI,

10:00 Eur CPI and PMI,

1:30 US NFP,  AHE and the Employment Rate.

3:00 US non-manu PMI.

Reminder that the ADP nfp earlier in the week was a massive beat of nearly 100k

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The S&P puts in a doji daily bar yesterday supported at the level of consolidation from a week ago. The overarching theme remains bullish for the indices.

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On 24/04/2019 at 07:04, Caseynotes said:

Worryingly this is usually about the time Trump chooses to ratchet up the trade war threats though it might be different this time

And there he goes again, Trump's tweets of the last hour sends weekend wall street down. Also along the lines mentioned in the Bannon vid above.

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Markets feeling the Trump effect once again (see posts above). Currently looking to secure support, Dow and Ftse seem to have found something but Dax still trying to feel the bottom.

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The S&P and a strong bull day and the highs are looking very vulnerable. The big corporate earnings reports are out of the way, good recent GDP and NFP figures, not much on the calendar ahead, so expecting to see a run up this week (Trump tweets notwithstanding).

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Another dip down after US market close on basically what was confirmation of Trump's weekend tweets of a tariff increase being imposed on Friday. This is inline with Bannons comments in the interview posted in this thread last week, and is said to be a response to China attempting to renegotiate past agreements. 

Difficult to say which way the markets will break from here but the targets are clear. Nikkei looking the most pessimistic at the moment while Ftse is the least concerned.

Dow looks to have found support at the old weekly chart resistance level (red) while Dax is sitting on it's daily chart support level (orange).

7:00 Ger factory orders. 10:00 EU econ forecasts. 

 

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