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Oh dear, do the fed not realise Trump's not going to like this ...

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Poor old Powell, even when he stands stock still he can't get it right.

Ger manu PMI at 8:55 and Eur PMI at 9:00 today. BoE rate decision and mon pol statement at 12:00 and the presser at 12:30.

Dow looks to have strong support immediately under as does Dax but Ftse looks a bit vulnerable, this 7351 is a previous high from March 21st which may serve.

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So, after a large drop down yesterday and today for the indices taking price back down to those of 2 weeks ago the S&P has found support at 2900 and has hoisted itself back up above the 2912 key support level with just under an hour to go before the US market close.

H4 chart.

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Looking at the daily charts and the correction of the last 2 days doesn't look too dramatic but today should be telling with the NFP data this afternoon.

9:30 GB services PMI,

10:00 Eur CPI and PMI,

1:30 US NFP,  AHE and the Employment Rate.

3:00 US non-manu PMI.

Reminder that the ADP nfp earlier in the week was a massive beat of nearly 100k

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The S&P puts in a doji daily bar yesterday supported at the level of consolidation from a week ago. The overarching theme remains bullish for the indices.

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On 24/04/2019 at 07:04, Caseynotes said:

Worryingly this is usually about the time Trump chooses to ratchet up the trade war threats though it might be different this time

And there he goes again, Trump's tweets of the last hour sends weekend wall street down. Also along the lines mentioned in the Bannon vid above.

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Markets feeling the Trump effect once again (see posts above). Currently looking to secure support, Dow and Ftse seem to have found something but Dax still trying to feel the bottom.

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The S&P and a strong bull day and the highs are looking very vulnerable. The big corporate earnings reports are out of the way, good recent GDP and NFP figures, not much on the calendar ahead, so expecting to see a run up this week (Trump tweets notwithstanding).

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Another dip down after US market close on basically what was confirmation of Trump's weekend tweets of a tariff increase being imposed on Friday. This is inline with Bannons comments in the interview posted in this thread last week, and is said to be a response to China attempting to renegotiate past agreements. 

Difficult to say which way the markets will break from here but the targets are clear. Nikkei looking the most pessimistic at the moment while Ftse is the least concerned.

Dow looks to have found support at the old weekly chart resistance level (red) while Dax is sitting on it's daily chart support level (orange).

7:00 Ger factory orders. 10:00 EU econ forecasts. 

 

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Indices get a big bounce off news that China has not cancelled it's planned US visit for the 11th round of trade talks on May 9 - 10.

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Trend Line hit

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@elle

Nice chart elle, tomorrow could be a very interesting day on the equity markets hope you do well. 

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Just to recap, on the first market high in Jan  2018 Trump started the trade war causing the first slide down, the market worked it's way back up and at the top in Sept 2018 Trump turned the screws again sending the market back down. And now he has done the same again, how far will it fall. There is likely to be a delay in any major movement as the Chinese delegation, which includes China's vice president, arrives in Washington to continue talks (the 11th round) Thursday and Friday.

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Dow back down testing support this morning and looking to bounce. Expecting a day driven by trade talk headlines again with price ranging between the current S1 and R1. Dax is holding up a little better buoyed by better than expected Ger indy prod data. Nikkei is being hit the hardest due to it's closeness to China while Ftse has problems of it's own with Brexit uncertainty.

So initially will be looking to see if Dow will break down through support or start a leg back up to the top of the range and would expect the others to follow. 

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US indices climbing back up towards the open price after another day of mixed signals but the real talking (US/China) starts after US market close, might be worth keeping an eye on the futures market for a clue as to London open prices tomorrow.

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Doesn't seem as any progress has been made, the Chinese undoubtedly confused as all other US presidents have  just capitulated at the first sign of trouble. Dow checking the downside, Dax retested yesterday's low, both now rebounding. The last news was of just an hour ago and not much expected now til Trump starts tweeting about 1pm bst.

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The trade talks are done and not even the pretense of making any headway, Trump happily tweeting that companies should make goods in the US and avoid Tariffs!

Interestingly the markets seem to have given up caring with price now back to start the day levels or higher.

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End of week S&P and an interesting touch point on yesterday's daily candle (see chart below).

There were reports going round yesterday concerning the trade talks that there was not actually any meeting as such. The US chief negotiator Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin simply told Vice Premier Liu that they had just 4 weeks before the US imposed 25% tariffs on near everything else imported from China, some $325 Bln worth of goods.

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Looks like that 'China has got 4 weeks' from the post above might be right, this vid retweeted by Trump a few hours ago.

 

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Looking at the weekly charts and the past 3 weeks have been red for Dow and Ftse and this may continue as the bones of the trade war are laid bare and not likely to be resolved any time soon. Trump looks determined to hold China to account for gross intellectual property theft, product copying and selling on the international free market.

There was only a small gap down after the weekend and the collapse of trade talks with no scheduled follow up and it will be interesting to see how the week unfolds.  

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Dow is trying to get a bounce off key support at 25214 which is a weekly chart level support in this last hour of the US session.

Below is a short vid of a twitter thread on how Trump has played the trade game so far.

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Dow daily and a good bounce up off 25214 support from early March.

I suspect there will be a slow recovery over the next couple of weeks but I've a feeling Trump will need to, and will, play the big hand and go all in 25% tariff on everything and that will likely come as a big shock to the markets. Until then will be looking for higher.

Daily chart with weekly pivots.

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On the H4 charts and with added a channel indicator as they are so obvious. LT bull, MT bear and ST bull.

7am Ger GDP, 10am EU GDP, 1:30pm US Retail Sales.

Intraday looking for a run up to R1 on dax, dow and ftse.

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A look at the S&P, a second daily bull candle after Trump's clearing the battle field in order to concentrate on China. He is delaying any tariffs on EU vehicles imported into the US for 6 months, gave a big boost to the indices especially Dax.

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Oh I see what's going on now, I was promoted to 'Super Contributor' sometime recently, ohhh the seething.

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Dow and Dax reset to the new daily pivot overnight and could break either up out of the 10 day channel or down to confirm it. Ftse overshot to the down side and Nikkei looks balanced.

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US 500     work to do either side in my opinion 

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Yes but so far it's a fair attempt to lift up off support.

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10 hours ago, elle said:

US 500     work to do either side in my opinion 

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above 150 EMA & first GAP  closed

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