Jump to content

Indices


Recommended Posts

Just to recap, on the first market high in Jan  2018 Trump started the trade war causing the first slide down, the market worked it's way back up and at the top in Sept 2018 Trump turned the screws again sending the market back down. And now he has done the same again, how far will it fall. There is likely to be a delay in any major movement as the Chinese delegation, which includes China's vice president, arrives in Washington to continue talks (the 11th round) Thursday and Friday.

image.thumb.png.558aec4da99ac92dba10314c409138d0.png

Link to comment

Dow back down testing support this morning and looking to bounce. Expecting a day driven by trade talk headlines again with price ranging between the current S1 and R1. Dax is holding up a little better buoyed by better than expected Ger indy prod data. Nikkei is being hit the hardest due to it's closeness to China while Ftse has problems of it's own with Brexit uncertainty.

So initially will be looking to see if Dow will break down through support or start a leg back up to the top of the range and would expect the others to follow. 

image.thumb.png.dbc3e0aea5fac335fa491bfccab3b653.png

image.thumb.png.efd39ca7efc1df3fea50c6c9ba6e780c.png

Link to comment

US indices climbing back up towards the open price after another day of mixed signals but the real talking (US/China) starts after US market close, might be worth keeping an eye on the futures market for a clue as to London open prices tomorrow.

image.thumb.png.31cd953d7e5eabe21dbc09d93982db20.png

Link to comment

Doesn't seem as any progress has been made, the Chinese undoubtedly confused as all other US presidents have  just capitulated at the first sign of trouble. Dow checking the downside, Dax retested yesterday's low, both now rebounding. The last news was of just an hour ago and not much expected now til Trump starts tweeting about 1pm bst.

image.thumb.png.3c538ccb27fb2e1f1208477f77076e9d.png

Link to comment

The trade talks are done and not even the pretense of making any headway, Trump happily tweeting that companies should make goods in the US and avoid Tariffs!

Interestingly the markets seem to have given up caring with price now back to start the day levels or higher.

image.thumb.png.75bae458268ce137610d669c9956270d.png

Link to comment

End of week S&P and an interesting touch point on yesterday's daily candle (see chart below).

There were reports going round yesterday concerning the trade talks that there was not actually any meeting as such. The US chief negotiator Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin simply told Vice Premier Liu that they had just 4 weeks before the US imposed 25% tariffs on near everything else imported from China, some $325 Bln worth of goods.

image.thumb.png.a2988df2afc14642189f1b222e562cea.png

Link to comment

Looking at the weekly charts and the past 3 weeks have been red for Dow and Ftse and this may continue as the bones of the trade war are laid bare and not likely to be resolved any time soon. Trump looks determined to hold China to account for gross intellectual property theft, product copying and selling on the international free market.

There was only a small gap down after the weekend and the collapse of trade talks with no scheduled follow up and it will be interesting to see how the week unfolds.  

image.thumb.png.e0e2b9d2b5ce44244dc662db7c0e5e8c.png

Link to comment

Dow daily and a good bounce up off 25214 support from early March.

I suspect there will be a slow recovery over the next couple of weeks but I've a feeling Trump will need to, and will, play the big hand and go all in 25% tariff on everything and that will likely come as a big shock to the markets. Until then will be looking for higher.

Daily chart with weekly pivots.

image.thumb.png.be379ea1c0b90846ed799ae7cc58eb63.png

Link to comment
5 hours ago, elle said:

above 150 EMA & first GAP  closed

Capture gap.PNG

Ok got ya, the gap has to fill. So are you bullish in mind of the upper gap or bearish in mind of the lower gap? Personally I think to far to fast, but I follow inter day trends so I bend with the trend Day to Day.

Link to comment
8 hours ago, Foxy said:

Ok got ya, the gap has to fill. So are you bullish in mind of the upper gap or bearish in mind of the lower gap? Personally I think to far to fast, but I follow inter day trends so I bend with the trend Day to Day.

@Foxy in  "this business"  you never know   - here's a different take from someone else

Capture djjj.PNG

Link to comment

End of week and worth pulling back to see where we are and all the indices are on an up leg having retested key support on Monday in what is basically a period of consolidation awaiting a breakout. 

Given that the Dow entered consolidation from below the normal expectancy would be a break to the upside but given that the upside is all time highs means that normalcy doesn't apply. The market is waiting for new news to give direction.  

image.thumb.png.49a7c44647178fec801fc95169c2221d.png

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart,     British Pound/U.S.Dollar(GBPUSD) Day Chart   GBPUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Counter Trend                               MODE: Impulsive as A                           STRUCTURE:  red wave 3                           POSITION:  blue wave A                               DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER  DEGREES: blue wave 4                             DETAILS:red wave 2 of A completed at 1.17096 , now red wave 3 is in play . Wave Cancel invalid level:  1.27096       The GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis for the Daily Chart explores the British Pound versus the U.S. Dollar using the Elliott Wave framework. This analysis provides a structured view of the market trends, focusing on counter-trend waves and their implications for traders and analysts.   ### Function The function of this analysis is identified as "Counter Trend," suggesting that the observed wave patterns represent a phase that moves against the prevailing longer-term trend. This could imply a corrective movement within a broader trend, indicating a temporary reversal or consolidation before the primary trend resumes.   ### Mode The mode is categorized as "Impulsive as A," indicating that the current wave structure represents an impulsive move typically found at the beginning of a new wave cycle. This mode generally suggests a strong, directional movement, often indicating the initial stages of a larger trend shift.   ### Structure The structure is noted as "red wave 3," highlighting an impulsive wave that typically denotes a continuation of a broader trend. Red wave 3 within this context could signify a strong push in the counter-trend direction.   ### Position The position in the Elliott Wave sequence is "blue wave A," indicating that the observed pattern is part of an impulsive phase. This position often aligns with a larger correction within a broader trend, suggesting that the current impulsive phase is still part of a counter-trend movement.   ### Direction for the Next Higher Degrees The anticipated direction for the next higher degrees is "blue wave 4," indicating that once the current wave completes, the structure will likely transition to a corrective phase. Blue wave 4 typically represents a temporary retracement within a broader impulsive pattern.   ### Details The analysis specifies that red wave 2 of wave A completed at 1.17096, with red wave 3 now in play. This implies that the current impulsive wave is expected to continue, potentially leading to a broader counter-trend movement. The Wave Cancel invalid level is set at 1.27096, indicating a critical threshold. If the price crosses this level, it would invalidate the current wave structure, necessitating a reevaluation of the Elliott Wave count.   In summary, the GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis on the Daily Chart describes a counter-trend movement with an impulsive mode, focusing on red wave 3 within blue wave A. The structure is expected to continue its impulsive trend, with a Wave Cancel invalid level serving as a key point for determining if the current analysis remains valid.         GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4 Hour Chart,     British Pound/U.S.Dollar(GBPUSD) 4 Hour Chart   GBPUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend                               MODE: corrective                           STRUCTURE: black wave 2                           POSITION: red wave 3                               DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES: black wave 3                             DETAILS: black wave of 2 is in play and likely to end between fib level 50.00 to 61.80 . Wave Cancel invalid level: 1.27096       The GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis on the 4-Hour Chart provides insights into the British Pound versus the U.S. Dollar within the framework of Elliott Wave Theory. This analysis helps traders understand the underlying wave structure and anticipate potential market movements.   ### Function The function of this analysis is identified as "Trend," indicating that the overall market movement aligns with a broader trend. In this case, the trend reflects a continuation pattern where market waves are forming in a way that aligns with the primary direction of the trend.   ### Mode The mode is labeled as "corrective," suggesting that the current wave structure represents a correction within a larger trend. Corrective modes typically signify a temporary pullback or consolidation, indicating that the price is currently in a counter-trend phase.   ### Structure The structure in this analysis is specified as "black wave 2," which represents an intermediate-level correction. This wave generally appears within a larger trend to correct an earlier impulsive movement, signaling a potential retracement before the larger trend resumes.   ### Position The position in the wave pattern is "red wave 3," indicating that the corrective structure is situated within a broader Elliott Wave framework. Red wave 3 represents a key point in the corrective phase, suggesting an ongoing retracement that could lead to a shift in trend direction.   ### Direction for the Next Lower Degrees The expected direction for the next lower degrees is indicated as "black wave 3." This suggests that once the correction completes, the wave pattern will likely transition to a more impulsive phase, potentially indicating a continuation of the broader trend.   ### Details The analysis details that black wave 2 is currently in play and is expected to conclude between the 50.00 and 61.80 Fibonacci retracement levels. This range often indicates a common end for corrective waves, signifying a potential turning point in the trend. The Wave Cancel invalid level is set at 1.27096, suggesting that if the price crosses this point, the current wave structure is invalidated, requiring a re-evaluation of the Elliott Wave count.   In summary, the GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis on the 4-Hour Chart describes a trend with a corrective mode, indicating that black wave 2 is nearing completion, with a potential transition to a more impulsive black wave 3. The end of this correction between the 50.00 and 61.80 Fibonacci levels might suggest the resumption of the primary trend, with a critical invalidation point to consider for risk management.   Technical Analyst : Malik Awais   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!      
    • ASX: COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA. - CBA Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart)   Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA. - CBA. We identify a correction wave as the 2-red wave that has just ended, and we are continuously watching for a CBA for a Long-term trade.     ASX: COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA. - CBA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   ASX: COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA. - CBA 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis   Function: Major trend (Minor degree, red) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave 3-red Details: The short-term outlook indicates a fairly rapid and strong price increase from the low of 109.94, suggesting that the 2-red wave has concluded, and the 3-red wave is unfolding. Pushing above and breaking the upper boundary line of the channel further clarifies this bullish view. We are closely monitoring CBA as we identify a long-term trading opportunity by seeking a strong support level at the Minor Level 110. Invalidation point: 96.15       ASX: COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA. - CBA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (4-Hour Chart)   ASX: COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA. - CBA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis ASX: COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA. - CBA 4-Hour Chart Analysis   Function: Major trend (Minor degree, red)   Mode: Motive   Structure: Impulse   Position: Wave 3-red   Details: The shorter-term outlook suggests that the recent completion of the 1-red wave and the initiation of the 2-red wave have occurred to push prices lower. It appears that the 2-red wave has completed, allowing the 3-red wave to unfold upwards. We are closely monitoring CBA as there is a potential long-term trading opportunity with CBA. A rise above 120.60 would clarify the bullish outlook.   Invalidation point: 95.15         Conclusion:   Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA. - CBA aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends.   Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation).   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, Cadarno/ U.S. dollar(ADAUSD) ADAUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis  Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Flat Position: Wave C Direction Next higher Degrees: wave (II) of Impulse Wave Cancel invalid level:  Details: Wave II Is equal to 61.8% of Wave I at 0.358 Cadarno/ U.S. dollar(ADAUSD)Trading Strategy: The second wave correction in the Expanded Flat pattern, where we are in the middle of a decline in Wave C, will have five extended internal sub-waves. But we still have one more decline left for Wave C to complete. So wait for the correction to complete to rejoin the trend. Cardano/ U.S. dollar(ADAUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is below the MA200 indicating a Dow trend, The Wave Oscillator is a Bearish Momentum.       Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge H4 Chart, Cadarno/ U.S. dollar(ADAUSD) ADAUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis  Function: Follow Trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave 4 Direction Next higher Degrees: wave C of Flat Wave Cancel invalid level:  Details: A short-term pullback in wave 4 before falling again in wave 5. Cardano/ U.S. dollar(ADAUSD)Trading Strategy: The second wave correction in the Expanded Flat pattern, where we are in the middle of a decline in Wave C, will have five extended internal sub-waves. But we still have one more decline left for Wave C to complete. So wait for the correction to complete to rejoin the trend. Cardano/ U.S. dollar(ADAUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is below the MA200 indicating a Dow trend, The Wave Oscillator is a Bearish Momentum. Technical Analyst : Kittiampon Somboonsod Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!    
×
×
  • Create New...
us