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5 hours ago, elle said:

above 150 EMA & first GAP  closed

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Ok got ya, the gap has to fill. So are you bullish in mind of the upper gap or bearish in mind of the lower gap? Personally I think to far to fast, but I follow inter day trends so I bend with the trend Day to Day.

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The indices are look to reset to the daily pivot support to try to launch another bounce up. Nothing much on the calendar today but may see end of week flows out of longs later in the day.

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8 hours ago, Foxy said:

Ok got ya, the gap has to fill. So are you bullish in mind of the upper gap or bearish in mind of the lower gap? Personally I think to far to fast, but I follow inter day trends so I bend with the trend Day to Day.

@Foxy in  "this business"  you never know   - here's a different take from someone else

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Looking to the future I've got that covered, no surprises there;

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Everything gone a bit quiet, China's PBOC statement about the Yuan this morning (see 'something interesting' thread) has caused uncertainty.

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End of week and worth pulling back to see where we are and all the indices are on an up leg having retested key support on Monday in what is basically a period of consolidation awaiting a breakout. 

Given that the Dow entered consolidation from below the normal expectancy would be a break to the upside but given that the upside is all time highs means that normalcy doesn't apply. The market is waiting for new news to give direction.  

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25956 is the test for Dow today if it can keep this upward momentum since 13th May going.

Ftse is looking to breakout above 7360 with tested support below at 7306. Dax looking to test the recent high at 12317.

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Well, would you recommend jumping on the cannabis index at this time?  :D

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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Well, would you recommend jumping on the cannabis index at this time?  :D

The chart seems to have broken down, lots of gaps and saying market not open to trade;

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I guess I'll wait.  It's an interesting idea.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I guess I'll wait.  It's an interesting idea.

It is, so instead of picking out individual companies you would be taking a position on the industry as a whole, and considering it's still early stage there should be quite a bit of upside.

Edited by Caseynotes

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Apropos of the US 500 and FTSE 100 indices, they have been swinging up and down so violently for the last four weeks I am again finding myself confused as to the best approach to take advantage of this volatility.  Is it a case of taking a day trading approach and following short term movements, entering and quickly exiting?   FX seems to work better with MAs and volume confirmation, but indices are really tricky to me.  (When they are not clearly trending)

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@dmedin, the best approach is to think the way the market works and that's by levels. Both bulls and bears want to control the market and know they need to act as a team to achieve that. So they set up orders at obvious target areas.

The 5 min dax chart from yesterday. There was the early morning battle for control of the daily pivot (blue), the bears won and so aimed for S1 (first green line) where they found the bulls waiting for contracts to buy, the bears won again so aimed for S2 (second green line), the bears won again so aimed for S3 but the move was interrupted by the arrival or reinforcements onto the battle field on the US open.

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The markets not sure which way to go at the moment so feeling out in both directions before drawing back to the start. Still 3 weeks to go of this hiatus in the trade war, will the future hold a increased tariffs to 25% on everything and the inevitable subsequent China retaliation? If so, China will need to expand the battlefield because they've run out of things to tariff so that will mean a radical escalation. 

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Minutes from the last FOMC meeting released today at 7pm may give more insight as to interest rate movement probabilities which is the second biggest market mover after trade war news at the moment.

The saber rattling gets louder as the US threatens to add 5 more Chinese tech companies to the blacklist.

Added for interest to the daily chart is MACD with divergence as the Mac has turned up and looking to cross the signal.  

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Ger and EU flash PMIs at 8:30 & 9:00 am, US PMIs at 2:00 & 2:45 pm. The consolidation of the last few days continues with lots of rumour and speculation as to trade war developments, will it escalate into a tech war, when is the next meeting.

Dow is bouncing between 25555 and 25956 with key support below at 25214. Dax moving sideways within it's rough channel. Ftse looks to be starting a down leg with the Times announcing May will resign on Friday while Nikkei hovers just above key support at 20870.

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UK retail sales at 9:30 and US durable goods at 1:30. Strong bear day yesterday though only nikkei tested key support levels. 

Dow currently testing the underside of it's daily chart support level, dax doing the same and still within it's up channel. Ftse faces a day of political turmoil if reports prove correct, it seems that everyone wants to push May off the cliff but no one wants to be seen actually doing it, no one is expecting her to say 'I'm just going outside and I may be some time' 🙂

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Posted (edited)

I mean... what actually is going on there days? How can anyone trust what this man says anymore? Hardline stance at one end the week, totally reversed the next. 

Hes a danger to markets.

“Mr Trump said Huawei was “very dangerous, from a security standpoint”, but insisted that it was “possible that Huawei could be included as part of a trade deal”.” From the FT

”Donald Trump said that Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications network company, was “very dangerous” but could still be “included” in a trade deal with Beijing, as the US president announced a $16bn bailout package for farmers hit by escalating tariffs.”

Edited by PandaFace

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It's a game but the stakes are high, it needs to be a slow and drawn out application of pressure. The number of big tech companies both in the US and EU that are falling into line and severing links to Huawei are growing exponentially, they announce on twitter on a daily basis. It's easy to forget China is a totalitarian regime, the government controls everything. CEO's of large companies go missing never to be seen again, the founder of Huawei owns just 1.5% of the stock, no one's sure but Chinese politicians seem to own the lions share. And this is the company that is taking control of the worlds 5G networks.

Trump has been the only one willing to take the Chinese on.  

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As expected lite going today, some activity in the Dax but no drama following the EU elections.

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Still no sign of any drama following the bank holiday and EU elections.

7am Ger Consumer Senti, 3pm US Consumer Senti

All our indices look destined to continue to look for resistance after the recent test of support..

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US indices looking to test key support in the last hour of US market open.

S&P and Dow H4 charts;

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Meant to add in the post above that China today dropped a very broad hint (via unofficial sources) that they were considering banning sales of Rare Earths to the US in response to US increasing pressure on Huawei. There were also reports (rumours) that Huawei were thinking about an IPO in order to allay US fears of Chinese government interference in their operations.

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Testing support and the S&P tentatively feeling below the recent low of mid May, nothing on the calendar today so not much to drive price lower other than sentiment but US GDP tomorrow may affect direction. 

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Well we got our break. The indices rose so fast after  Powell. I think it's a swift drop.

Are levels of support probably a 61% fib retrace of the move.

Say what you will Trump has  a set of **** and is the only one standing up to China.

European politicians should be joining him. .. though they would have to find theirs.

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18 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Meant to add in the post above that China today dropped a very broad hint (via unofficial sources) that they were considering banning sales of Rare Earths to the US in response to US increasing pressure on Huawei. There were also reports (rumours) that Huawei were thinking about an IPO in order to allay US fears of Chinese government interference in their operations.

HumanProgress.org @HumanProgress

"The Chinese government is threatening to cease exports of "rare earths" to the United States. Should Americans be worried? Far from it. The last Chinese "rare earths" embargo was a total dud. Read about the increasing abundance of "rare earths" here:"

https://humanprogress.org/article.php?p=1268

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Interesting day, Dow managed to break key support but recovered to a degree near end of session, oil fell then recovered to near starting level and gold rose then fell back to near starting level. Gold and oil remain in consolidation and so do the major indices, there is no great catalysts for any great fall as yet, the trade war lumbers on but the US economy remains strong, so far, the US GDP figures tomorrow awaited with some intrepidation. 

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