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23 minutes ago, Foxy said:

@Caseynotes

Any idea why the Dow failed to tag the ATH today? unless we get a late rally today I'm thinking this looks pretty bad, any ideas? 👿 

I see the S&P has fallen away too after setting a new ATH and the US manu PMI figure this afternoon was ok and no other big news that I've seen so the move up turned out to be a test of resistance which was confirmed and price is now is looking to test support. It may find it around here at 26640, if not will need to look lower at around 26520.

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22 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I see the S&P has fallen away too after setting a new ATH and the US manu PMI figure this afternoon was ok and no other big news that I've seen so the move up turned out to be a test of resistance which was confirmed and price is now is looking to test support. It may find it around here at 26640, if not will need to look lower at around 26520.

@Caseynotes

26640 is under pressure now and 26520 could be next, but not what you would expect after Trumps U Turn at weekend. The FTSE & The DAX held on as long as they could before they followed The DOW down, clearly not expected. 👿 

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12 minutes ago, Foxy said:

@Caseynotes

26640 is under pressure now and 26520 could be next, but not what you would expect after Trumps U Turn at weekend. The FTSE & The DAX held on as long as they could before they followed The DOW down, clearly not expected. 👿 

It was the US open that did it and if you look at the Sunday 1 hour bar as a weekend gap then what we are seeing now since the US open is a gap fill, interesting.

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24 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

It was the US open that did it and if you look at the Sunday 1 hour bar as a weekend gap then what we are seeing now since the US open is a gap fill, interesting.

@Caseynotes

I get that, but it shouldn't have filled so soon under the circumstances especially so close to the ATH and if so it should have rallied as soon as the gap filled, we will see soon enough but I think this could turn out to be a reversal. 👿 

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9 minutes ago, Foxy said:

@Caseynotes

I get that, but it shouldn't have filled so soon under the circumstances especially so close to the ATH and if so it should have rallied as soon as the gap filled, we will see soon enough but I think this could turn out to be a reversal. 👿 

Always a possibility, the daily has taken on a nice twin reversal pattern look about it, this last hour of play should be telling before the US market close.

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3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Always a possibility, the daily has taken on a nice twin reversal pattern look about it, this last hour of play should be telling before the US market close.

@Caseynotes

Yep, I noticed the last hour on Friday saved the day and it could again so we wait and see yet again!!

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Ftse looks keen to break up past the monthly chart resistance level, Dax has a close eye on Dow which is sitting midway between support and resistance at the all time high. All are on a up leg looking for sellers, will the open bring them out?

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Ftse was the one to watch breaking up past the monthly chart resistance level;

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The disturbing higher than normal volatility out of hours continues, Ftse has pulled away higher, Dax and Dow still looking higher though not making headway. Nikkei tests support.

H4 charts;

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Dow looking to drive into it's all time high 26951 as it cruises though R2.

H1 chart;

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Ftse continues it's strong run past it's monthly chart resistance, Dow into it's all time high and Dax pushes higher past it's weekly chart resistance.

Daily charts;

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No change pause day yesterday, Dow sits atop the monthly resistance level (purple). 

Something to note is that the last 2 Fridays saw prices ramp up into the close, the same thing happened just prior to the US bank holiday yesterday, what that is saying is that strong hands have every confidence price will hold up. A good jobs report today should see further market gains.

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All following Dow which is just pulling off the highs, support at 26708.

Daily charts;

Daily quiz; If the neckline gets broken name the pattern on the weekly S&P below. Clue; It's not called an inverse Head and Shoulders.

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Three Classic Head and Shoulder Patterns;

This goes to show that a head and shoulders pattern has no meaning at all just the support and resistance lines associated with it. 👿

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According to John J. Murphy it's important to consider volume as well, volume being higher on the left shoulder and going down at the head and then at the right shoulder.  Then it should pick up on the break of the neckline.  Helps to confirm the strength of the pattern.

Edited by dmedin
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44 minutes ago, Foxy said:

This goes to show that a head and shoulders pattern has no meaning at all just the support and resistance lines associated with it. 👿

True enough though the H&S continuation does have it's own unique profile which makes it easier to spot and is surprisingly common when you actually go looking for it.

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13 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

True enough though the H&S continuation does have it's own unique profile which makes it easier to spot and is surprisingly common when you actually go looking for it.

OK but during that same period horizontal support and resistance would have served you better as you can see from my weekly chart of the same period

xauusd-w1-ig-group-limited.png.

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10 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Here on the MSCI World Index Weekly Log chart;

OK but again no use if you wanted to trade 2011/2012 or 2015/2016 or 2018/2019 and was waiting for a continuation pattern on the world equity markets chart. Its just another pretty pattern. 👿

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13 minutes ago, Foxy said:

OK but again no use if you wanted to trade 2011/2012 or 2015/2016 or 2018/2019 and was waiting for a continuation pattern on the world equity markets chart. Its just another pretty pattern. 👿

Not sure what your point is really, it's just another breakout pattern, people use them all the time on all kinds of charts. It's not as well recognised as many others but just as valid which was why I featured it. 

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The fact is that even with the best plan in the world, you're still not guaranteed to make a return from trading.

It's a rich man's game, always has been and always will be.  Only people who are already rich have a near-guarantee of making more money on the markets.

Most of us exist to be wage slaves and pawns of the rich and powerful ... and that's just a fact of life.

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Indices continue to pull back, Dow trying support at 26708 and Dax at 12463.

Ftse has pulled back to the monthly chart resistance level it broke a week ago (7527).

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13 hours ago, dmedin said:

The fact is that even with the best plan in the world, you're still not guaranteed to make a return from trading.

It's a rich man's game, always has been and always will be.  Only people who are already rich have a near-guarantee of making more money on the markets.

Most of us exist to be wage slaves and pawns of the rich and powerful ... and that's just a fact of life.

Best not to look at the world through bi-polar glasses, if it's a guaranteed return you're looking for the best bet is to become a wage slave of the rich and powerful.

If you had six extra zeros on your account balance how would that actually change your trading, it wouldn't, you would still need to learn.

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Guest phil

With London’s FTSE 100 hitting 10-month highs on Wednesday and Wall Street’s S&P 500 breaking one all-time high after another amid a backdrop of slowing economic growth, most investors would be right to expect a pullback. But financial journalist Mark Hulbert anticipates stocks to continue their upward rally in the face of a second EPS decline in Q2 based on previous market performances.

Since 1927, Ned Davis Research has found the stock market to perform best when the year-over-year EPS growth rate of the S&P 500 was between 10% and 25% lower than its average annualised return. FactSet forecasts the US index’s EPS growth rate to be -2.6% in Q2.

cheers

phil

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Thanks Phil, interesting reading.

Dax and Dow managing to hang onto key support yesterday and Dow putting on a pin bar on the daily. Ftse in a similar position resting on key resistance turned support, UK GDP and manu prod data today 9:30am.

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Next week is one of the best performing weeks of the year for the S&P by median historic data.

See seasonality tool below.

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