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10 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Here on the MSCI World Index Weekly Log chart;

OK but again no use if you wanted to trade 2011/2012 or 2015/2016 or 2018/2019 and was waiting for a continuation pattern on the world equity markets chart. Its just another pretty pattern. 👿

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13 minutes ago, Foxy said:

OK but again no use if you wanted to trade 2011/2012 or 2015/2016 or 2018/2019 and was waiting for a continuation pattern on the world equity markets chart. Its just another pretty pattern. 👿

Not sure what your point is really, it's just another breakout pattern, people use them all the time on all kinds of charts. It's not as well recognised as many others but just as valid which was why I featured it. 

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The fact is that even with the best plan in the world, you're still not guaranteed to make a return from trading.

It's a rich man's game, always has been and always will be.  Only people who are already rich have a near-guarantee of making more money on the markets.

Most of us exist to be wage slaves and pawns of the rich and powerful ... and that's just a fact of life.

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Indices continue to pull back, Dow trying support at 26708 and Dax at 12463.

Ftse has pulled back to the monthly chart resistance level it broke a week ago (7527).

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13 hours ago, dmedin said:

The fact is that even with the best plan in the world, you're still not guaranteed to make a return from trading.

It's a rich man's game, always has been and always will be.  Only people who are already rich have a near-guarantee of making more money on the markets.

Most of us exist to be wage slaves and pawns of the rich and powerful ... and that's just a fact of life.

Best not to look at the world through bi-polar glasses, if it's a guaranteed return you're looking for the best bet is to become a wage slave of the rich and powerful.

If you had six extra zeros on your account balance how would that actually change your trading, it wouldn't, you would still need to learn.

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Guest phil

With London’s FTSE 100 hitting 10-month highs on Wednesday and Wall Street’s S&P 500 breaking one all-time high after another amid a backdrop of slowing economic growth, most investors would be right to expect a pullback. But financial journalist Mark Hulbert anticipates stocks to continue their upward rally in the face of a second EPS decline in Q2 based on previous market performances.

Since 1927, Ned Davis Research has found the stock market to perform best when the year-over-year EPS growth rate of the S&P 500 was between 10% and 25% lower than its average annualised return. FactSet forecasts the US index’s EPS growth rate to be -2.6% in Q2.

cheers

phil

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Thanks Phil, interesting reading.

Dax and Dow managing to hang onto key support yesterday and Dow putting on a pin bar on the daily. Ftse in a similar position resting on key resistance turned support, UK GDP and manu prod data today 9:30am.

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Next week is one of the best performing weeks of the year for the S&P by median historic data.

See seasonality tool below.

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S&P sits just under 3000 and poised to move higher.

Daily chart;

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This one for all you bears out there, low liquidity since Feb, see chart.

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Dow already heading towards the highs, Dax has some ground to make up, Ftse trying higher off a solid base.

Daily charts;

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Dow sails on leaving the weaker hands behind, after Powell's testimony to congress the July 31st rate cut seems assured and nothing major on the calendar before then to upset the cart which all probably means it's time to put the crash helmet on.

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Dow looking for continuation upward while Ftse follows Dax looking for support. Indices correlation broken down as US pushes ahead, EU with GDP and production worries, UK with Brexit uncertainty and Asia watching China GDP slip on the trade war. 

Interesting article below on the 12 month flat Euro and what that means for other markets.

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https://investinghaven.com/markets-stocks/currency-market-history-euro-flat-12-months/

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Dax and Ftse both putting in daily reversal candles yesterday while Dow drifts upward after the strong push through resistance last week. Asian markets struggle with China concerns.

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H4 charts and Dow holding a bull flag while Dax and Ftse well correlated trying to make up lost ground and Nikkei continues to fall away.

The S&P daily put in it's first red candle for 6 days though Fed speak yesterday continued along the lines of a small rate cut in 2 weeks time.

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All starting the day looking for support, from the daily chart Dax has a recent low at 12166 and Ftse at 7482.

Dow has some support here at 27130 or below at 27030.

Below on the S&P daily and of particular note to this sell off is the low volume which is more indicative of profit taking rather than a strong uptake of new sell entry orders. 

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Daily's and Dow heading back up towards the highs and the others are following, Ftse needs to clear 7527 again and Dax is back up to 12300 which may provide some resistance.

A look at the S&P H4 and an up trendline from mid June gets a forth touch.

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Weekly charts and Dow puts in a inside pause candle while Dax has a bear continuation. Ftse stuck in range flag and Nikkei coiling in a triangle.

S&P daily trying for support off 2966 but may take a look at the stronger level just below at 2958.

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Directional continuation yesterday and this morning with continued expectation of Fed and ECB taking the lower rates line, Asian market most relieved.

Daily charts;

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Interest rate change expectations;

ECB on Thursday,  FOMC next week Wednesday,  BoE next week Thursday.

ForexFlow @forexflowlive

36m

Interest rate expectation update:

-Jul #FOMC 25bp cut 84.5%, 50bp 15.5%.

-Jul #ECB 61.1% unch, 38.9% 10bp cut.

-Aug #BOE unch 97.4%, 2.6% 25bp cut

-Sep #BOC 90.2% unch, 9.8% 25bp cut 

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What to expect, well you should always expect a directional candle to be followed by a directional continuation candle, does that always happen, no, it just usually does. 

There is a limit to what can be,

a directional candle can only be followed by a directional continuation candle, an inside pause candle or a reversal candle.

An inside pause candle can only be followed by a directional continuation or a reversal candle (ignore a double pause).

A reversal candle can only be followed by a directional continuation or an inside pause candle.

Probability always favours continuation, if you are always expecting a reversal then you are just plain mad 🙂

Dow arrives back at the ATH by way of a series of directional continuation candles.

 

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Worth comparing today's S&P and Dow, Dow hit by the heavily weighted Boeing (9% of Dow total) losing 2.8% is costing Dow some 70 points.

H1 charts;

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Dow hurt by poor data from Boeing and Caterpillar watched S&P make a new all time high yesterday but is still within reach of it's own top.

Dax has the important 12660 within reach and the ECB presser today may provide a push. Ftse a mixed day with new PM in place but strong support below at 7473 and Nikkei tagging the weekly chart resistance level 21824.

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Fears for Deutsche Bank and the possibility of a ECB rate cut today.

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

21m

A further rate cut would be catastrophic, especially for German banks. Goldman estimates that 20bps cut (effectively what mkt has priced in between now and Sep), would trigger aggregate losses in 32 banks they cover of €5.6bn, about a 6% cut to profits. (Chart via @DiMartinoBooth)

 

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Fears for Deutsche Bank and the possibility of a ECB rate cut today.

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

21m

A further rate cut would be catastrophic, especially for German banks. Goldman estimates that 20bps cut (effectively what mkt has priced in between now and Sep), would trigger aggregate losses in 32 banks they cover of €5.6bn, about a 6% cut to profits. (Chart via @DiMartinoBooth)

 

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"

What else can the ECB do?

Draghi has always talked about “mitigation” of negative rates -- and that doesn’t have to mean tiering. One option might be for the ECB to start buying bank bonds, which would lower lenders’ funding costs as a way to offset the impact of another deposit-rate cut,"

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-23/ecb-rate-cut-plan-puts-worried-banks-on-lookout-for-sweeteners

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'Buying bonds' from the banks means giving the banks free money.

Which the banks then use to sustain dividends.

Why not cut out the middle man and just have the central bank give out free money to the shareholders directly.

Jeez.  

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Dow puts in a nice big bear directional bar yesterday but bounced off confirmed support. Today's bar can only be one of either directional continuation (down), inside pause or reversal bar back up. US GDP data 1:30pm will probably decide it.

Dax trying for support off 12300 and Ftse looking to secure support at 7473.

S&P daily not so affected by yesterday's turmoil and already on the way to recovery.

Daily chart; 

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From yesterday;

"Fear grips Wall Street as stocks retreat from all-time highs to levels not seen since yesterday afternoon"

Hipster @Hipster_Trader

 

"S&P 500 (number of) All-Time Highs by Decade...

1930-39: 0

1940-49: 0

1950-59: 141

1960-69: 224

1970-79: 35

1980-89: 190

1990-99: 310

2000-09: 13

2010-19: 219* (*<half year remaining in decade)"

Charlie Bilello @charliebilello

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Bull drive into all time highs going into the weekend sure sign of big money strength and confidence, you should have been the buying the dips not shorting the highs ..., for the last three and a half years actually.

S&P daily.  

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