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  On 24/04/2019 at 07:04, Caseynotes said: Worryingly this is usually about the time Trump chooses to ratchet up the trade war threats though it might be different this time.
Trump waited for the S&P to climb all the way back up before announcing the next big round of tariffs on China, this is the forth time since early 2018 but as with the other times there is likely to be a delay in the next chart move while the markets wait for China's response and it's not clear what they can respond with, they have run out of like for like imports tariffs, the withholding rare earths threat didn't work and they have more to lose banning US companies operating in China. Expecting markets to 'wait and see' but be aware China in the past has made announcements on Sunday before US markets are open so could be risky holding positions open over the weekend.  
Dax was rattled with a drop down to 11900 early morning on news the US was going to make an announcement on trade disputes with the EU at 13:45 ET today but recovered quickly when considered it may just be to announce a delay while US concentrated on China.

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Just looking at the S&P and after any big move on news you will always hear a lot of talk from FOMOers that this is a great shorting opportunity but what they never consider is where are the buyers, well they haven't gone anywhere, they are sitting watching the same charts as you and waiting, so where do you think they will they start initiating speculative longs?

Your average FOMOer will just sit stunned and just watch a big move until it stops and then they wake up and think 'I've got to get short', but why did price just stop, oh look, it's right on a very obvious S/R level, exactly the sort of place buyers will 'have a go'.

FOMOers are weak hands always late. If you missed the first impulse move wait for a second phase (if there is one) and it won't come til after the support level holding up price is taken out. Shorting directly into strong support is  a mistake, wait for support to be taken out first. order flow (again). 

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Hang Seng index down 5.2% on the week, biggest 1 week loss since Feb 2018 (start of the US/China trade dispute).

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4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

FOMOers are weak hands always late. If you missed the first impulse move wait for a second phase (if there is one) and it won't come til after the support level holding up price is taken out. Shorting directly into strong support is  a mistake, wait for support to be taken out first. order flow (again). 

@Caseynotes

Firstly can I ask what a FOMOer is? and secondly are you simply saying sell the highs not the the lows?

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3 minutes ago, Foxy said:

Firstly can I ask what a FOMOer is?

I've assumed it's Fear Of Missing Out'ers.

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1 minute ago, Foxy said:

@Caseynotes

Firstly can I ask what a FOMOer is? and secondly are you simply saying sell the highs not the the lows?

yeah sure, FOMO is Fear Of Missing Out, it's when you see price racing away, you didn't anticipate it and weren't ready for it so you start chasing after it, usually  managing to jump in just as it stops and reverses 🙂

So not about selling highs or whatever but rather avoid entries where price is about to reach a significant level, so not shorting into support or going long into resistance, instead expect a battle at the level and look for entries as price is leaving rather than arriving, either breaking out or the first pullback thereafter.

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8 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

1.30pm... What just happened?  FTSE moving.

 

you are joking right? US NFP today 1:30, econ calendar every morning, actually came out very neutral.

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8 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you are joking right?

No, not Joking Casey.  There may be a Calendar, but assuming i understand what it all means is foolish.

 

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8 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

No, not Joking Casey.  There may be a Calendar, but assuming i understand what it all means is foolish.

 

You don't need to know what especially but you do need to know when, mark off any red flags that mean high priority that concern a market you might be involved in.

This one we talked about yesterday, that's why I thought you were joking, see pic. 

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I checked that but didn't see it.  I also assumed it was related to Forex only.

I defo don't have that info on my page.

 

 

Calendar.jpg

Edited by nit2wynit

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FWIW my H4 chart for Wall St. looks to be in a confirmed down trend. For now it's going to be a sell the highs sort of trade.  👿

us30-h4-ig-group-limited.png

 

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1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

I checked that but didn't see it.  I also assumed it was related to Forex only.

All the big US data releases are going to have some affect on nearly all markets so that's FOMC, NFP, PMI's, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, GDP, PPI's, CPI's. Most are monthly though FOMC is 8 times a year.

If any are way outside market expectations will trigger the big guys to re-adjust their holdings so you get big sudden moves. 

 

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6 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I checked that but didn't see it.  I also assumed it was related to Forex only.

@nit2wynit

There's no such thing, everything affects everything else in this market. 👿  

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6 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

If any are way outside market expectations will trigger the big guys to re-adjust their holdings so you get big sudden moves. 

That's fine but the link you gave me yesterday doesn't have the same time info on what you're showing.  I have 1.45 Trump Speaks.

Trying to relate that there was a bit of jumping about on the 1m chart at precisely 1.30pm with no reference in the link provided.

Is there another page I should be viewing?

Edited by nit2wynit

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1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

hat's fine but the link you gave me yesterday doesn't have the same time onfo on what you're showing.  I have 1.4f Trump Speaks.

Trying to relate what there was a bit of jumping about on the 1m chart at precisely 1.30pm with no reference in the link provided.

Is there another page I should be viewing?

ok, try this link https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

you may need to set the time right but it will remember once done, you don't need to register, once the page is set up save it to your favourites bookmark bar.

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11 minutes ago, Foxy said:

FWIW my H4 chart for Wall St. looks to be in a confirmed down trend. For now it's going to be a sell the highs sort of trade.  👿

If past patterns were anything to bet on i'd say it was going up again before it came back down.

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2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you may need to set the time right but it will remember once done, you don't need to register, once the page is set up save it to your favourites bookmark bar.

That is the same info as I have now.  Maybe the Calendar updated since you screen shot it yesterday.

Edited by nit2wynit

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3 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

That is the same info as I have now.  Maybe the Calendar updated since you screen shot it yesterday.

you should be seeing this;

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4 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

If past patterns were anything to bet on i'd say it was going up again before it came back down.

@nit2wynit

I'm counting on it. I'm looking for about 27000 with a bit of luck then sell again. I rarely trade against the trend so I will wait for a nice high to sell. Today I am not trading just chilling out then I will take a fresh look on Monday. 👿

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3 minutes ago, Foxy said:

@nit2wynit

I'm counting on it. I'm looking for about 27000 with a bit of luck then sell again. I rarely trade against the trend so I will wait for a nice high to sell. Today I am not trading just chilling out then I will take a fresh look on Monday. 👿

Chilling out and enjoying the fine weather?
 

You should be hunched in front of a computer, fat and miserable and losing money like the rest of us.

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1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

Nope I'm seeing this:

 

Calendar2.jpg

ok, that's fine, so you can set the time zone to yours if not all ready there and you can set the Filter (top right green box below 'search') and uncheck the 'low impact' yellow flags.

 

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

You should be hunched in front of a computer, fat and miserable and losing money like the rest of us.

PMSL HAHHAHA

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6 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

ok, that's fine, so you can set the time zone to yours if not all ready there and you can set the Filter (top right green box below 'search') and uncheck the 'low impact' yellow flags.

That sorted it.  Thanks

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Ah screw it.  I was in on WallSt to short but got out.  Need a break.

Have great success people.

Back to it next week.

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