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18 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

ah right sorry, i thought you were just trying to predict the past. you'd get even better results if you used higher time frames 🤸‍♀️

 

I could always just post a chart everyday and say something along the lines of 'It might go here or here, but this is where it is now' - that would surely be useful :D

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I could always just post a chart everyday and say something along the lines of 'It might go here or here, but this is where it is now' - that would surely be useful :D

na, you should do what i do instead, so look at the daily chart, what colour was yesterday's candle,

if it was a directional candle today will probably be the same and same colour, less probable but possible it will be a reversal or a pause bar

if yesterday was a pause bar then today could be either directional continuation or a reversal candle

if yesterday was a directional reversal candle today will probably be directional continuation but may be a pause or a reversal.

Then go down to the H1 chart, he who controls the pivot controls short term direction.

 if price is above the daily pivot look for continuation to R1, expect further continuation until you see a reversal.

Same if price is below the pivot, look for continuation to S1, expect further continuation until you see a reversal.

 

so not really looking too far to the left at all.

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By analysing patterns in the past we can extrapolate and look for similar occurrences in future.  :)

 

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China announce trade talks to start early October in Washington and Dow breaks up out of the recent range and drags the others along as well. Expecting directional continuation though watchout for the US ADP nfp and PMIs this afternoon.

Daily charts;

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Dow has broken the recent range and will be looking for a directional continuation candle today with Dax following, Ftse hampered by Brexit/new elections uncertainty doesn't look to be going anywhere.

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The charts remain bullish to start the week, focus will be increasingly drawn to the will they/won't they Fed rate decision next week (Wed 18th). With the all time high just ahead for the Dow may see a pause candle today in contemplation but the recent trend is clearly up with moderate resistance next at 27060.

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As mentioned in yesterday's morning post a pause candle it was and for the same reasons could be looking at the start of a short consolidation period for indices. Ftse though basically in step continues to be rattled by Brexit indecision. 

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Another pause candle for Dow yesterday though Dax is trying to make some gains. Ftse still has resistance overhead during trying times. Not much on the calendar until ECB rate decision tomorrow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/the-economic-numbers-are-continuing-to-defy-the-recession-hype.html

Daily charts;

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Edited by Caseynotes

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The bulls went charging into the US close yesterday and have kept going since towing the others along but the ATH is just ahead for Dow so likely to be another pause. ECB rate decision today and is Draghi's last before handing over to Lagarde so may end up being a very non-committal presser at 1:30pm.

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Interesting diplomatic/trade stance from the Chinese;

SCOOP-Senior Chinese diplomat to FoxBusiness: China cannot be deterred in anti-poverty efforts, long-term growth strategy even amid trade talks; won’t make any compromise, even promising to eliminate IP theft that would stall growth more now.

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Guest phil
  • Marko Kolanovic, head quant at J.P. Morgan, says extreme divergences in the market have led to the move in value stocks and that trend should continue.
  • The strategist also says there is an extreme divergence between small and large cap stocks, seen only other time during the tech bubble, in February, 1999.
  • Given the rotation trade, Kolanovic expects more upside potential in small caps, cyclicals, value, and emerging market stocks than the broad S&P 500.
  • In July, the strategist said the rotation into value stocks was setting up for a ‘once in a decade’ opportunity.

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Continuing to grind higher, Draghi surprised yesterday doing more than was expected though it was all 'open ended' meaning Lagarde can cancel at anytime but probably won't given her support for fiscal easing, thoughts turning to the FOMC meeting next Wednesday a 25bp cut 100% priced in and 50bp by end of year at around 50%, Powell probably won't go as far as Draghi but he is something of a loose canon with a monkey on his back so should be fun.

Daily charts;

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With the FOMC US interest rate setting meeting coming up on Wednesday may see Dow inch up towards the ATH and monthly chart resistance level (purple) in expectation with the others following with caution. Could be an interesting week with the US and Iran shouting accusations and threats at each other while the possibility of further drone attacks remains high.

Daily charts;

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No real movement yesterday, attempted to go lower but was bought back up, attempted to break higher on the US close but sold back down overnight. Fed rate decision today 7pm and presser 7:30 so traders likely to be cautious til then

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So you have to admit this S&P chart is as bullish as you could get, traders have been waiting for the Fed who haven't disappointed, have refused to break lower during that wait and are just staring at that ATH just a short reach away. Barring a war there seems nothing to hold back the continued march onward and upward.

Daily chart; 

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Dow has just backed away slightly overnight having ramped up into the US close yesterday. UK interest rate not expected to change so it will be down to the vote count and the mon pol statement. Dax and ASX tracking Dow.

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Dow remains just below the ATH, some might be thinking there should have been more lift off the Fed mtg Wednesday but as I pointed out in the dax and dow thread Wed morning that if the event is front run to the tune of being 90 to 100% already priced in then the risk is to the downside rather than up.

Not much on the calendar today and is Friday so not expecting fireworks but will be interested to see if there is any downward pressure and how the bulls might cope, they have been in control for some time now.

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With the US indices back up near the highs it must be time for Trump to ratchet up the trade war again (4 times in a row so far).

 

Donald Trump’s ready to escalate US trade war if deal not agreed soon, says top White House adviser Michael Pillsbury

  • Tariffs on Chinese goods ‘could go to 50 per cent or 100 per cent’, Michael Pillsbury says
  • But the American leader is not pursuing ‘cold war 2.0’, and US-China decoupling would be a ‘consequence of no agreement’ by Beijing, he says

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3028164/donald-trumps-adviser-china-michael-pillsbury-says-president

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Some excitement starting to stir on the increasing breadth of the US indices as measured by the advance decline indicator and as seen in the percentage of stocks over their 200 day MA (70% up from 50% in mid July).

A second major breadth thrust for 2019 (A/D 2.3x) is showing on the S&P (the first was in Jan) and may be the signal to another breakout.

The two flys sitting on the rim of the ointment are the FANGs which have been lagging lately and Trump who traditionally likes market tops to up the stakes in the trade war and send the markets back down again.

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(Callum Thomas)

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Dow has found support again at 26890 after news the Chinese trade delegation returned home early from the US trip.

US GDP data later in the week expected at 2% q/q should draw the Dow back towards the highs with Dax, Ftse and ASX waiting expectantly for Dow to make a move. Lots of Fed speak this week and a FOMC press conference may give the markets a push but which direction. 

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Another test of support during the London session and recovery again after the US session open, S&P remains in a tight consolidation bull flag at the ATH.

Daily chart; 

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Indices remain stuck in this 8 day period of consolidation with Dow holding fast just under it's all time high, attempts to push lower are bought up but no real spur to push higher as yet. Ftse and Dax tuned to Dow while ASX pushes on and up.

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Dow extends range down following US severe criticism of China in the UN shows a trade deal is not even close. Not much on the calendar today.

Dow found support at 26714 and has bounced up 140 points should continue to look for resistance which is likely to be under the recent highs. 

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If the Brexit debacle wasn't entertainment enough there's laughs a plenty across the pond as well. The Dems have realised that unless they can impeach Trump they are sunk in the next election, right on queue comes a whistle blower with an (fake) account of a Trump phone call containing Trump 'lies'. "Impeach" - Trump releases the official transcript of the phone call, drat, but next time we'll get you. Clown world.

So that was the cause of the drop and rally yesterday, let's see what today brings.

Latest betting on the runners and riders below.

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Indices start the day trying to lift higher, the Dems getting desperate keeping the impeachment ball rolling now and have resorted to begging potential whistleblowers to come forward after the one they had was proved a fake. Laughably they didn't make any checks on the story at all before steaming in.

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