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18 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

ah right sorry, i thought you were just trying to predict the past. you'd get even better results if you used higher time frames 🤸‍♀️

 

I could always just post a chart everyday and say something along the lines of 'It might go here or here, but this is where it is now' - that would surely be useful :D

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I could always just post a chart everyday and say something along the lines of 'It might go here or here, but this is where it is now' - that would surely be useful :D

na, you should do what i do instead, so look at the daily chart, what colour was yesterday's candle,

if it was a directional candle today will probably be the same and same colour, less probable but possible it will be a reversal or a pause bar

if yesterday was a pause bar then today could be either directional continuation or a reversal candle

if yesterday was a directional reversal candle today will probably be directional continuation but may be a pause or a reversal.

Then go down to the H1 chart, he who controls the pivot controls short term direction.

 if price is above the daily pivot look for continuation to R1, expect further continuation until you see a reversal.

Same if price is below the pivot, look for continuation to S1, expect further continuation until you see a reversal.

 

so not really looking too far to the left at all.

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By analysing patterns in the past we can extrapolate and look for similar occurrences in future.  :)

 

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China announce trade talks to start early October in Washington and Dow breaks up out of the recent range and drags the others along as well. Expecting directional continuation though watchout for the US ADP nfp and PMIs this afternoon.

Daily charts;

image.thumb.png.2c5174e5274af3903dfb42f72ece725f.png

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Up!  Down!  Up!  Down!  Up!  Down!  I love losing money :D

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Dow has broken the recent range and will be looking for a directional continuation candle today with Dax following, Ftse hampered by Brexit/new elections uncertainty doesn't look to be going anywhere.

image.thumb.png.82767aeaa3bd7305c380a311b130f333.png

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The charts remain bullish to start the week, focus will be increasingly drawn to the will they/won't they Fed rate decision next week (Wed 18th). With the all time high just ahead for the Dow may see a pause candle today in contemplation but the recent trend is clearly up with moderate resistance next at 27060.

image.thumb.png.49bc0d6bae52919a922e679544292f35.png

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As mentioned in yesterday's morning post a pause candle it was and for the same reasons could be looking at the start of a short consolidation period for indices. Ftse though basically in step continues to be rattled by Brexit indecision. 

image.thumb.png.1269cdbd299db1246e1144624dcb6837.png

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Another pause candle for Dow yesterday though Dax is trying to make some gains. Ftse still has resistance overhead during trying times. Not much on the calendar until ECB rate decision tomorrow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/the-economic-numbers-are-continuing-to-defy-the-recession-hype.html

Daily charts;

image.thumb.png.59db04da49a26c2d3a015bee838282d3.png

Edited by Caseynotes

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The bulls went charging into the US close yesterday and have kept going since towing the others along but the ATH is just ahead for Dow so likely to be another pause. ECB rate decision today and is Draghi's last before handing over to Lagarde so may end up being a very non-committal presser at 1:30pm.

image.thumb.png.8293073f87a617e130fdf7c1f9c0b894.png

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Interesting diplomatic/trade stance from the Chinese;

SCOOP-Senior Chinese diplomat to FoxBusiness: China cannot be deterred in anti-poverty efforts, long-term growth strategy even amid trade talks; won’t make any compromise, even promising to eliminate IP theft that would stall growth more now.

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Guest phil
  • Marko Kolanovic, head quant at J.P. Morgan, says extreme divergences in the market have led to the move in value stocks and that trend should continue.
  • The strategist also says there is an extreme divergence between small and large cap stocks, seen only other time during the tech bubble, in February, 1999.
  • Given the rotation trade, Kolanovic expects more upside potential in small caps, cyclicals, value, and emerging market stocks than the broad S&P 500.
  • In July, the strategist said the rotation into value stocks was setting up for a ‘once in a decade’ opportunity.

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Continuing to grind higher, Draghi surprised yesterday doing more than was expected though it was all 'open ended' meaning Lagarde can cancel at anytime but probably won't given her support for fiscal easing, thoughts turning to the FOMC meeting next Wednesday a 25bp cut 100% priced in and 50bp by end of year at around 50%, Powell probably won't go as far as Draghi but he is something of a loose canon with a monkey on his back so should be fun.

Daily charts;

image.thumb.png.8160ea8f0a5e0cc0bd79ca9161c07061.png

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With the FOMC US interest rate setting meeting coming up on Wednesday may see Dow inch up towards the ATH and monthly chart resistance level (purple) in expectation with the others following with caution. Could be an interesting week with the US and Iran shouting accusations and threats at each other while the possibility of further drone attacks remains high.

Daily charts;

image.thumb.png.9d6d2d0c1c6f1fd645fbf21bf355e81c.png

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