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UP!!!

DOWN!!!

I'm just going to shake mine all around :D

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Markets were fine until this afternoon with news the US were considering limiting exports of oil to China and that they were also thinking of limiting investment flows into China. Could be the start of a Trump war escalation and there may be a reaction from the Chinese over the weekend which would lead to the possibility of a market gap down on Monday.

M30 charts;

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Edited by Caseynotes

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Not a lot on the calendar this week the biggy being US NFP on Friday. UK GDP today. China on holiday for the week starting Tuesday.

Dow still within this consolidation pattern since mid Sept and looking for an excuse to break either way with the others waiting to see.

Month and 3rd quarter end flows today.

Daily charts;

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IG's very own portfolio manager, Oliver (very posh accent), says you shouldn't be a short-term speculator - stick to the long term.

 

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All moving up off support into recent resistance, short term bullish as the US indices heading back into the highs.

Daily charts. 

Also below is the S&P monthly chart plus a special offer for all those trying to make a career shorting the indices.

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https://www.pcworld.com/article/3438723/train-to-become-a-certified-cisco-network-engineer-for-just-29-90-off.html

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Looked at the S&P monthly this morning but worth checking Dow, Dax, Ftse and ASX monthlies as they are all staring at their All Time Highs. Dow is the closest and it would not take too much to push on through and as the US is the world econ driver the rest are likely to follow, some headway in the China/US trade dispute would do it.

Monthly charts;

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Posted (edited)

All the indices took a hit on the very poor US manu PMI data yesterday with Dow breaking down through key support 26714. The move was so strong because the figure was way outside consensus even though manufacturing only accounts for 13% of US economic activity. Of more interest, especially after yesterday, will be Thursday's non-manu PMI expected to come in at 55.1 and don't forget Friday's NFP. The Fed will be watching and wondering if more rate cuts might be needed before the year is out.

Last yearly quarter of the decade folks, time to get a move on 🙂

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Edited by Caseynotes
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Indices will be looking for support here at a prior low for Dow and Dax, the most important US PMI figure (non-manufacturing) comes out today at 3pm, expected to be 55.1. An actual figure way outside the expected can really move the market as seen following the disappointing manu PMI on Tuesday.

See below for more info on the Purchasing Managers Index which is a survey of expectations for the near future, 50 being neutral, above 50 is expectation of expansion and below 50 is expectation of contraction of business activity. PMIs are a leading indicator and the non-manu figure today is mostly services which are a main driver of US GDP.

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Bespoke

"2008 and 2009, 1934 and 1935 are the only other years to start Q4 with a 2-day drop of 2%+."

(see below)

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This is a time for shorting.  Take your pick, there's plenty to make money shorting on right now!

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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

This is a time for shorting.  Take your pick, there's plenty to make money shorting on right now!

Actually that's interesting, the line I drew on the daily chart this morning at yesterday's low when zoomed out to the monthly chart is last months low.

But short away to your hearts content, the bulls need suckers to take the other side of their trades.

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1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

But short away to your hearts content, the bulls need suckers to take the other side of their trades.

:D

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Keep the faith, my bonnie wee loon 😺

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US non-manu PMI was a miss at 52.6, was expecting 55.1. Indices dropping on the news.

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Could be very exciting today, if the purchasing managers are more gloomy than expectations have the hiring managers been hiring as per expectations? and heading into a weekend the worry warts could start a panic if figures are bad, delicious.

Yesterday the indices looked to have found support and are attempting to rally. 

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NFP headline figure down slightly as was the average hourly earnings but the unemployment rate was a strong beat at 3.5% from 3.7% hence the markets initial lift.

M30 charts;

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Kind of looks like we're getting sideways action going nowhere for now.  :(

 

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9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Kind of looks like we're getting sideways action going nowhere for now.  :(

 

yeah, really the overall data was probably quite neutral and a certain amount of relief the data wasn't very bad being expressed in the initial response.

M1 chart;

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Friday saw a boost to the markets keeping the Dow in touch with the highs. And bad news for all ewes hoping for a recession, here is the S&P sector quilt for 2019 so far (and previous years dating back to 2009), oh dear, not a single negative for 2019 ☹️. If it wasn't for me you guys would only see what you were looking for.

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https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/09/the-2019-sp-500-sector-quilt/

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Indices continuing to rally and a strong push up on the European open with Dax tagging the daily R1. The news doesn't quite match events with Trump slapping a trade restriction order on another 28 Chinese firms ahead of new trade talks which aren't expected to yield much in the way of progress anyway.

US PPI today at 1:30 2.3% expected.

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Indices shaken by trade talk news yesterday and today Fed chair Powell speaks at 4pm plus answers questions and the FOMC mtg minutes from the last meeting at 7pm should give clues on future interest rates plus more news on QE 4 (or is it 5) bond buying announced by Powell yesterday though not calling it QE any longer apparently.

Plus a look at historic tightening periods as expectancy for a 25bp cut in October rise to 75%.

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20h
 

Did the Fed overtighten? Incl. QT, this is the most severe tightening cycle in a LONG while..

 

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Jonathan Davis FPFS FCII  @j0nathandavis

"I didn't realise they allowed bulls on RV."

 

Real Vision@realvision. Bulls seem pretty thin on the ground these days… But @FrankCappelleri, chief market technician at Nomura Instinet, is here with a cheery outlook for the S&P 500:

 

 

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Indices grind back up after the shock lol news no progress was made in the trade talks. Chinese politicians still demanding the right to thieve intellectual property at will because ... 'REASONS' and seem surprised a little bribery yesterday didn't work.

So indices still positioned mid range and have begun the grind back towards the highs this morning, while general confidence may be low the US econ data remains strong so no reason not to. US CPI data latter today should hold no surprises.

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Dax takes off early this morning after a strong day for Dax, Dow and ASX yesterday. Ftse sullen as GBP takes off on Boris deal rumours. Dax and Dow looking to work higher today.

I see the APAC brief is back, always worth a look see as to the world scene overnight.

Daily charts;

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China exports to the US down over 10% in the last 9 months and the Chinese seem to be losing faith in the hope that delayed trade talks will see them negotiating with the democrats after the next US election. All sides report positive progress on the the most recent talks on Friday.

Dow looking up to the all time high once more and Dax in sight of it's monthly chart resistance level. Hopes of a partial trade deal between UK and the EU seem to have fallen through so GBP and Ftse remain volatile.  

The S&P weekly chart couldn't be clearer and US economy remains strong, the only thing that's down is sentiment and that can change in an instant.

Weekly global outlook summary from Topdown charts. 

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Indices had a bit of a set back yesterday when the Chinese announced after arriving home from the trade talks that they had changed their mind and decided not to sign the partial agreement til after more talks.

Dax is not hanging around and is up 60 points this morning with the monthly chart resistance level dead ahead.

Ftse still plagued by Brexit uncertainty.

Daily charts;

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As noted in yesterday's morning post, watchers are turning to emerging markets as a leading indicator for the next move.

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TopdownCharts

 

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"EEM is up to its declining tops line, and ahead of the SP500 getting to its equivalent line. This could be the start of EEM leading the way higher. When the two have a disagreement or divergence, EEM usually ends up being right about where both are headed." Tom McClellen

 

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